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The Stock Market - What the Heck?
2-8-18 | Vanity

Posted on 02/08/2018 2:12:16 PM PST by CincyRichieRich

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To: Professional
It's not the valuation of a given company, it's the upward and downward swings of the market as a whole that are irrational.

Or rather, there are rational and irrational components to the movement of markets (as well as intentional manipulation of expectations).

Rational judgment of expectation goes some way to explaining market movements, but you can't ignore irrational surges and slumps.

61 posted on 02/08/2018 2:43:43 PM PST by x
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To: butlerweave

That stopped almost two years ago. Something else is causing it.


62 posted on 02/08/2018 2:43:49 PM PST by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
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To: bigbob

Pretty good analysis.................


63 posted on 02/08/2018 2:43:54 PM PST by Osage Orange (Watch your six.)
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To: CincyRichieRich
'stock market drops - including today's 1000 pt drop'

That was only the dow. There are other markets than simply the dow.

But, as a whole. Have the fundamentals really changed? We still have massive debt, that's increasing. Bonds are looking more attractive. Easy money at first, so it was easy to make some money. People still can't find[or look] jobs to pay back their student loans. Innovation and tech is/will replace 'menial' jobs every year. Throw in natural disasters left and right.

64 posted on 02/08/2018 2:44:03 PM PST by Theoria (I should never have surrendered. I should have fought until I was the last man alive)
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To: CincyRichieRich

People are not heeding the words of Gordon Gekko:

“The public’s out there throwing darts at a board, sport. I don’t throw darts at a board – I bet on sure things.”

Gordon cheated with inside information, but he is right about the dart throwing. The little guys in the stock market should probably stick with the tried and true since the big guys can make the market go up and down all the time. For example, I bought some Chevron stock when price dropped this week. I am confident that Chevron is a sound company and its share price will increase over time.


65 posted on 02/08/2018 2:45:02 PM PST by Cecily
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To: CincyRichieRich
Any thoughts out there and how to stop it?

Would it be a good idea to try to stop someone from throwing up when they're in the middle of doing it? It's a bit similar. Let the market finish tossing its cookies, sleep it off, and get back to work.

There is upwards of 8000 points on the Dow of pure vapor in the market, IMHO. That came from the free money (vapor paper) from the QE years of brocko and yellen. It is Dow value that is based on nothing substantial, and, like air in a water hose, has to be bled off.

If Powell were to follow suit, he would take the microphone and announce an interest rate cut just like brocko/yellen did every time the market tried to correct.

This is healthy. You only lose money if you sell. If you're about to retire and are risk-averse, go ahead and cut your losses. If you're 10 years or more from retirement, ride it out and you'll recoup after a while.

66 posted on 02/08/2018 2:45:22 PM PST by Migraine ((A smartass who is right can be downright funny. A smartass who is wrong is just a smartass.))
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To: Professional

Government deficits absorb capital that have its highest and best use in the private sector, not the government sector.


67 posted on 02/08/2018 2:45:30 PM PST by buckalfa (I was so much older then, but I'm younger than that now.)
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To: x

It’s not gambling....at all.


68 posted on 02/08/2018 2:45:36 PM PST by Osage Orange (Watch your six.)
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To: buckalfa

Stocks really took off when Trump won in anticipation of the tax cuts and less regulation. I’m no expert, but it seems to me there was a big psychological component to this rise. Do the fundamentals of the underlying businesses making up the indexes support these stock prices? I’ve been wondering about that for a while. If not, at some point a drop would be inevitable. It seems to me it takes time for businesses to truly improve after years of slow growth under Obama, so the market probably got ahead of itself.

Maybe now that the tax cuts have been passed the anticipation is over and investors and companies are looking at the bottom line.


69 posted on 02/08/2018 2:48:15 PM PST by NotAlwaysTruculent
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To: Cecily

Unless the cause a huge oil spill or social event.


70 posted on 02/08/2018 2:49:08 PM PST by CJ Wolf (It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World and Trump got the cure.)
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To: Ingtar

POLL: What is happening to the stock market?

It is being deliberately sabotaged
It is experiencing a long overdue correction
The Trump economy is crashing
I’m not sure

http://www.headlineoftheday.com


71 posted on 02/08/2018 2:49:25 PM PST by Jeff Chandler (President Trump divides Americans . . . from anti-Americans.)
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To: Vermont Lt

And none of those notes are selling any more. Not the 3 years, not the 10 years.


72 posted on 02/08/2018 2:51:58 PM PST by RinaseaofDs
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To: nightmarewhileawake
... i’m Having a tinfoil hat theory. Donald and Republicans coming up in polls. The swamp hasn’t been able to destroy him with Russia Russia, the economy is their next weaponized weapon to use on him — so like bingo market down, down, crash it and blame the R’s and Donald. This can’t be about interest rates because the economy can easily handle an increase. Who rolls big, big money all over the globe destroying economies in its wake...?

PRECISELY. ITA.

73 posted on 02/08/2018 2:53:59 PM PST by jstolzen (All it takes for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing - Edmund Burke)
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To: Osage Orange
Depends on whether you're talking about long term or short term investment.

If you're making a rational judgment about long-term growth potential, that's one thing, but day to day fluctuations don't always yield to rational expectations.

74 posted on 02/08/2018 2:54:09 PM PST by x
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To: CincyRichieRich

The Dow was in the 700’s back in the 70’s when I got in. Plenty of ups and downs but has always gone up over time. Hang in there.


75 posted on 02/08/2018 2:58:30 PM PST by Chauncey Gardiner
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To: x
Depends on whether you're talking about long term or short term investment

Well I disagree....but that's how it goes....

Although I do have a question or two....what is long term to you?

And what is short term to you?

So...you think long term investing is or isn't gambling?? I am confused.........

76 posted on 02/08/2018 2:59:43 PM PST by Osage Orange (Watch your six.)
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To: x

investing is neither irrational nor gambling. Trading on the other hand is.


77 posted on 02/08/2018 3:00:20 PM PST by bigdaddy45
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To: bigdaddy45

To suck people in, that’s the Soros’ move.......


78 posted on 02/08/2018 3:01:08 PM PST by Lockbox
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To: sourcery

Ask not what makes the market move. Ask whether you are flexible enough to trade in the same direction the market wants to move.
******************
WINNER.


79 posted on 02/08/2018 3:03:05 PM PST by Neidermeyer (Show me a peaceful Muslim and I will show you a heretic to the Koran.)
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To: Cecily

Ditto that - CVX (Chevron) is a great company. I bought when the Divvy was 5+% (somewhere in the 70s, thank God). Lot lower Div than that now, but oil is probably never going to go away and the income stream is too tempting to pass up.

I’ve been increasing my Divvy paying stocks, and TRYING to not pay attention to the share price.

Other great picks (IMHO) are HCN, O, F, VZ, T, CTL.

Reap those dividends. Just don’t ever sell the shares and all is good.


80 posted on 02/08/2018 3:03:09 PM PST by jstolzen (All it takes for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing - Edmund Burke)
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