Posted on 08/09/2016 7:25:41 AM PDT by cba123
Yeah and if my aunt had testicles she’d be my uncle. Hilldebeast just isn’t a good candidate, period.
Primary Model is about the popular vote, not the electoral, which elects presidents.
The Dems will commit vote fraud in a few key precincts in a half dozen battleground states and flip those states in the electoral count. Nationwide, massive vote fraud is not necessary to pull this off.
To defeat it, we need to be at least 7 points up going into the voting season.
“Unless there was massive fraud, it turns out Americans DO like big-spending, Traditional America-hating, fake, media-supported, socialist politicians.”
Some “Americans” do. Perhaps 30% are either “gimmedats” or ideologically squarely in that corner.
What won 0bama two elections was the combination of “the first black president”, his oratory skills, and the unwavering devotion of the mainstream media.
Hilliary is facing major headwinds. “The first woman president” isn’t playing too well immediately after “the first black president”. She is saddled with the reality of the bad outcomes 0’s policies have brought - policies she’s vowed to continue. She is a terrible speaker. She is viewed as the consummate “Washington insider” when much of the country is longing for an outsider to clean house. She is bedeviled by several scandals that won’t go away and that have been widely publicized. Only the devotion of the mainstream media remains, and even that is showing some cracks.
I believe Trump will crush her in the general, and that is without additional scandal via new emails or other revelations. The only concern I have is that she might be replaced at the last minute with a different candidate. That would be a wildcard and the outcome would be more unpredictable. I have a sneaking feeling that the Dems are secretly planning this, but I hope not...we’ll see soon enough.
Trump/Pence 2016!!!
AGREED. More like, an endorsement of Obama. That's the point I decided he had been pulled aside somewhere, and told how it was going to go down.
Yes, I still can’t decide if McCain was scared off or paid off.
your skepticism/cautiousness are well founded.
I think in 2008 that Juan McAmnesty had no real chance, any more than Romney had in 2012, or even Bob Dole in 1996.
I do think thaht Trump has a real chance of winning. Most I am of that view because he fought for teh nomination, it was his by default like McAmnesty and Romney or Dole because it was their “turn”.
A we’ll see view will keep you healthy and sleeping at night.
Let’s run some numbers. Republicans had more than 30 million primary voters-—I don’t know the total number, but I think it was between 31m and 33m.
Ds had 27m. So that’s a primary edge of 3 million.
Assume that Trump gets 85% of the 31m=26.3m voters right there. (It should be a lot higher because these are GOP primary voters, but let’s allow for “Never Trumpers”.)
Assume that each of those brings just ONE other voter to the polls (spouse, child, friend): 52.6m
Assume Cankles gets 90% of the Dem primary vote: 24.3m and that they each bring one (48.6m).
That gives us a total of 101.2m voters. Based on 2012 turnout of 126m voters (bad assumption, since I think turnout will be much higher, somewhere between 2012 and 2008 of 131m) that leaves roughly 24.8m “independents” who didn’t vote in either primary or who aren’t affiliated with those who did.
Assume of those 24.8m, Trump only gets 55%, or 13.6m, RIGHT THERE he beats Minion at 62.2m. Give Cankles 11.6m “independents” (45% x 24.8) for a total of 59.6m. She still doesn’t even reach Minion’s 2012 level.
If Trump so much as increases EITHER his turnout among GOP above 85% or his indie share to above 55%, you can see how the numbers increase exponentially to that 66m I’ve been predicting for a while, or even, yes, the 73m that Sundance has been predicting.
HOWEVER, if turnout is closer to 2010 or 2014 percentages and closer in total numbers to 2008, my guess is Trump is easily over 70m.
If this is true it is no wonder the DNC/RNC/Media are lying so much and fighting so hard to pound Trump and avoid the inevitable.
I believe this too. This is what really bothers me these days. The economy and other things can be so easily manipulated in order to manipulate the outcome of any given election even without voter fraud; which of course does happen anyway so nothing is left to chance.
“What won 0bama two elections was the combination of “the first black president”, his oratory skills, and the unwavering devotion of the mainstream media.”
What won 0bama two elections was massive voter fraud.
Fixed it for ya.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.