"Cruz wins 100% of the vote in the remaining primaries and he still falls short." -- How the Rest of the Delegate Race Could Unfold, 8 posted on 04/06/2016 5:18:17 AM PDT by King of Florida
Posted on 04/06/2016 7:21:57 AM PDT by Pollster1
An absolute majority or a simple majority?
Technically the rules is in place from before the start of 2012 till 2016. Now as you say, the rule can be extended. In fact I believe this is the best play for both Trump and Cruz. If rule 40 remains in place for the first and several subsequent rounds of voting, then this will shut out any other candidates.
50% + 1 vote (1,237 delegates) needed to adopt a rule change.
Maybe Cruz won’t want to shut out other candidates. That could help Trump.
I am of the opinion that both Trump and Cruz would prefer a heads up 2 person contest.
RULE NO. 42
Temporary RulesUpon the adoption of the report of the Convention Committee on Rules and Order of Business, Rule Nos. 26-42 shall constitute the Standing Rules for this convention and the temporary rules for the next convention.
Rule 42 implies that they might change rule 40 in the future, but as of now it is a rule for the next convention (temporary or otherwise) and NOT something that was just in place for the last convention.
-PJ
And hopefully all the polling that says the voters don’t want the finagling will stop it. But that assumes that the delegates will support the will of the voters. Delegates are chosen by state party rules. Hopefully the delegates are loyal to the candidate they’re pledged to, but that isn’t always the case. Even under the best of circumstances most of the delegates will owe their ultimate allegiance to the party, not the billionaire businessman from New York or the junior senator from Texas. To think otherwise is naive.
What would it take to suspend the rule?
******************
First off this are only Temporary Rules for 2016. In that one week before the Convention meets a group of 112 delegates will meet to determine the rules for the 2016 convention. Those rules will be presented to the convention after coming to order and ultimately will be voted on, accepted, amended and finally agreed upon as rules for the 2016 convention. Remember Rule 40 was changed at the 2012 Convention as a way to block Rand Paul from being a candidate in nomination. Prior to that convention Rule 40 required only five states not as as changed to eight states in 2012. In either case it shouldn’t play in this convention.
There are 769 delegates remaining to be chosen prior to the convention. Trump needs 479 delegates to win and Cruz needs 732 to win. I’d say Cruz has almost zero chance to get that number and Trump has a better chance but in reality this can still go to a contested convention.
Moral: A hostile takeover of a party that you want to destroy is very difficult.
The interesting thing, if you like watching train wrecks, is that it takes a majority of seated delegates to change any rule at all. They can rewrite the rules under a simple majority and then specify either a simple majority to change the rules mid-convention, or a supermajority for any further rules changes. As was pointed out, this is CalvinBall.
Even if Trump and Cruz combined have 80% of delegates pledged to them, that does not mean the majority of delegates actually support the candidates to whom they are pledged. This is an area where Trump in particular failed to pay enough attention early on. Trump and Cruz delegates are bound to vote for those candidates for the nomination, but they are not bound to vote in their candidate's interests for any other vote. The rules could easily change in any direction.
If the two leaders really have loyal delegates, they could change the rules to permanently close nominations prior to the first ballot. Establishment-loyal delegates could also eliminate that temporary rule completely, without giving too much offense, and argue that it was a temporary rule that had only been in effect for the unique needs of the 2012 convention.
"Each candidate for nomination . . . shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination . . . not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business." Both readings are completely reasonable (and the interpretation is in the hands of the person chairing the convention). Is the "established order of business" voting on a nominee, or is it each round of voting on a nominee? This could be quite a fiasco.
We've tried the ballot box, the soap box, and the jury box. Is there another option?
Rules of the Olympics
1: Cross the finish line first in order to win- If you stop 50 yards short of the finish line- too bad-
2: No whining about losing if you don’t cross the finish line
3: No one stole anything from you if you didn’t cross the finish line and had to go to a secondary process/contest to determine who the winner is and you lose
The ammunition box - but you knew that already!
“If anyone can find something in the rules contradicting my post, please explain where I am mistaken.”
You have this exactly right and it is amazing how wrong others out there like Hannity and Levin have been on this.
Assuming Trump and Cruz delegates control the rules committee and the convention, the rule will stay. But even with this rule in place, my reading is that anyone can place anyone in nomination at any time by submitting a petition demonstrating support from a majority of delegates in 8 states to the convention secretary an hour before the next ballot.
Trump will have a chance to clinch this on the first and second ballots. If he falls short and his support is falling and Cruz is rising, Cruz will have his chance to clinch it as bound delegates are released. After the 3rd or 4th ballot, if Cruz falls short and has no momentum toward 1237, he has no more claim on the nomination than someone else who might be able to get to that number.
They aren’t ever going to change the 1237 (50% +1) number, and it takes 50% +1 to change a rule anyway.
No endorsement is a possibility that looms over a deadlocked convention, hurting everyone.
A new nomination entered doesn’t mean that delegates who came to support Trump or Cruz are going to suddenly support a candidate opposite to them, like a Jeb or Kasich. More likely, the threat of a new nomination being entered will help one of them reach the threshold.
Whatever the Rules Committee approves, the convention will have to adopt the rules before deliberations begin. Delegates and even each of the campaigns are not pawns in this game, unless they volunteer. It's not done until the Rules are adopted by the delegates.
First battle: Credentials.
Second Battle: Rules: everything else follows and is dependent on the outcome of these, usually pro forma fights.
The "establishment" depends on their opponents not knowing how this thing works, it depends on their impatience, scheduling speeches and ceremonies depending on people not knowing how to plant their asses for multiple ballots, wearing them out.
They COUNT on people not knowing how to make a motion, simple Rules of Order. Which motions are always in order, etc.
This convention will decide the nomination. It could be on the fourth ballot, or the 100th. It's been a while, but it will not be the first time, nor has such a thing been a historic negative.
But, you don't hear anyone talking about Dark Horses, or Favorite Sons, like Kasich.
The triumph of progressive education in our public schools.
It is my interpretation that the rules provide a sequential process. First, names are placed in nomination (with time allowed for speeches) and then balloting begins. Rule 40(e) provides a continuous process where upon failure to reach majority, the chairman calls a second and subsequent ballot. There is no provision in this rule or any other for interrupting the balloting to reopen the nomination process.
The basis for my interpretation, is primarily the absence of any mention in the rules about reopening the nomination process. In a rule based organization, you always operate on the basis of permissive rules, not prohibitive ones. With rules, you can specify what can be done, but you can't specify everything that can't be done.
In summary, there is a rule providing for additional ballots if a majority is not received but there is no rule providing for additional nominations should additional ballots be required.
1237 or bust......watch for a scheme
to give each State 10 Super Delegates.
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