Dick Morris: "I Goofed" And "Was Wrong" To Make Romney Prediction (video)

Real Clear Politics ^ | Nov. 7, 2012

[smoothsailing]

In my county, Romney~Ryan won 71%.

And here I've been going around bragging all day about how my PA county went Romney with 56% !!! You da champ!

[chris37]

lol, well he definitely missed the mark, but then again, so did I.

[tsowellfan]

Thank You Chris Cristie!

[ishmac]

Yeah, Morris goofed alright, and his predictions are often the kiss of death. Nevertheless, one polling outfit got it just as wrong, yet had a sterling record of accuracy before yesterday. I'm speaking of the University of Colorado group whose model had predicted every presidential election since 1980.

Both last May and last August they were predicting a solid Romney victory:

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

So even the guys who had never missed a call (even in 2000 they got the Gore/popular vote vs Bush/electoral vote correct), blew it.

[cableguymn]

Reality. A firm grip this one has.

[ConservativeLawyer]

I think Mr. Morris is Stu and Pid

LOL. Thanks for the much-needed laugh.

[rbg81]

Mr. Morris is a perfect reverse barometer.

[sockhead]

I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but when you look at those predictions from reliable sources, and the long, long lines at the polling centers....how did the vote come out millions less than 2008 and in favor of Obama?

People were still voting at midnight in Florida and Virginia, yet the final voter turnout was 10% less than 2008? Makes me wonder.

[RnMomof7]

He is a toe sucking jerk.. all he wants is time to publicize his web page and books

[haircutter]

we are the county where 09/11/2001 and flight#93 was put on the map.. and only 30.5% of the Democrats came out to vote!!and Tom Smith vs 'church mouse Casey got almost 66% vote.and can you believe Republicans claim the 'old Murtha' seat..that was some good news on a sad evening...also only 34,384 voters came out to vote and it was a beautiful day...what will it take to wake the Americans up? we are seriously considering moving South to Georgia, and both our adult kids are jumping up and down...they have been encouraging the move for a long time...maybe it is now that time... Pray for the Nation we all knew ♥

[Cyman]

Morris is twice as smart as Rove and Rove is a half-wit

[Cyman]

Morris is twice as smart as Rove and Rove is a half-wit

[SeekAndFind]

I just did a quick lookup of the Obama vs McCain popular vote as compared to the Obama vs Romney Popular vote and here is what I see:

Election 2008

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008

2008: Obama: 69,456,897 McCain: 59,934,814

TOTAL VOTES CAST: 129,391,711

Obama Victory Margin: 52.9% to 45.7% (9,522,083 votes)

Obama: 365 EV McCain: 173 EV

_______________________

Election 2012

Source:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-election-results

2012: Obama: 60,652,149 Romney: 57,810,390

TOTAL VOTES CAST: 118,462,539 (2,841,759 votes)

Obama Victory Margin: 51.2% to 48.8%

Assuming Obama takes Florida (which as of this writing is still uncalled)...

Obama: 332 EV Romney: 206 EV

___________________

What I find interesting are the following:

1) There were more people who voted in 2008 compared to 2012.

2) McCain got MORE votes in 2008 than Romney in 2012. In fact, McCain got 2,124,424 MORE VOTES than Romney !!

QUESTION : WHAT HAPPENED TO THOSE 2,124,424 McCAIN VOTES IN 2012?

3) Obama LOST OVER 8,804,748 Votes in 2012 compared to 2008!!

QUESTION: What happened to those 8,804,748 voters? Did they stay home?

I can only conclude the following, based on the above observations:

* There was LESS ENTHUSIASM by Americans to vote in 2012 than in 2008.

* Contrary to what we were led to believe by the GOP and what some FReepers claim they saw on the ground in their state, REPUBLICANS WERE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC TO VOTE THIS YEAR. In fact, I can see at least 2 Million of them staying home this year compared to 2008 based on the above numbers.

So much for the huge Get Out the Vote Effort, the huge, sellout crowds in Red Rocks Colorado and in Ohio...

* Even though Obama lost over 8 Million votes this year, most of those voters DID NOT switch to Romney, preferring to stay home ( I suspect many of these would be the disappointed youth of 2008 and the socially conservative blacks of 2008. The former still can’t find good jobs and the latter couldn’t vote for a gay marriage supporting candidate. However, they still could not vote for Romney. So, they stayed home ).

Also, I cannot help but conclude that a huge proportion of the GOP base STAYED HOME in 2012. Otherwise, where were the over 2 million votes that went to McCain in 2008?

This was a self-inflicted loss on the part of the Republicans.

[Hound of the Baskervilles]

Well heck. I forgive him. He was rash. He made a mistake. Mistakes are not sins.

[Bobalu]

Dick = dick

[smoothsailing]

We’re about an hour west of you.

Romney, Smith, Diana Irey-Vaughn all won here.

And Keith Rothfus, that was the real treat of an otherwise very sad evening.

Georgia sounds nice, we like South Carolina! :o)

[ishmac]

Yeah, I place conspiracies in the same category as miracles: they’re both realities and they’re both rare as hens’ teeth.

And yet it is so strange in this election...predictive models that had been infallible for decades were wildly wrong, speculations by seasoned and objective observers like Barone were just as wide of the mark, data gathered by Freepers like LS, et al., seemed to indicate one thing, but foretold its opposite, the body language of the major players prophesied victory for Romney and defeat for Zero, we saw long lines with our own eyes and stood in them to vote, and even pure intuitive types like Peggy Noonan—no enemy of Obama—seemed to see the writing on the wall; and yet what we a thought was UP, was really DOWN. I don’t know what to say other than that, as it stands, we lost and my homeland now seems as foreign to me as the dark side of the moon.

[LongWayHome]

Check out Freeper Jackmercer & his work out here. He NAILED this election using real science & data. LS & those people, God love them, but they were WAY off.

[ari-freedom]

Don’t forget the Redskins rule.

[haircutter]

They all won here also...

and both of the Carolina’s are nice...son just relocated from Lancaster, PA. to North Carolina and loves it in only four months time...he is what is drawing my hubby South..

I visit Georgia at least six times yearly, and love it...so the move will be really easy for me...just don’t like all the work involved with selling PA. property, but we already have several interested parties..