Where do we stand in the Senate for November?

Self | 7/2/2012 | Miltary Cop

[Vigilanteman]

McCaskill won by a mere 2.5% in 2006 with a strong Democrat headwind. I just don’t see that wind there in 2012. Of course, I don’t know much about the GOP candidate. Do you?

[Reagan69]

Missouri = McCaskill is LOSING ! in all polls.

Wisconsin = Tommy Thompson is trouncing Baldwin in all polls.

AND, both state a solidly in the “HATE ObamaHealthTax” camp.

[MrChips]

OK, so that is two pickups if we keep Scott Brown’s seat. We also have to defend one in Nevada, no? Assuming we do, where is the third pickup likely to be?

[MrChips]

OK, so that is two pickups if we keep Scott Brown’s seat. We also have to defend one in Nevada, no? Assuming we do, where is the third pickup likely to be?

[Reagan69]

Keep your eyes on Florida too. Nelson is kind of a blah person. Connie Mack (R) is pretty popular.

Everything shows a 50/50 race. Healthcare ran about 50/50 too. If the R’s can get across the fact that ObamaHealthTax is really a TAX, it could push slightly in Connie Mack’s favor.

I live in FL and am surprised that Mack is polling so well this early.

[randita]

Does Intrade deal in individual races or just an aggregate?

[Reagan69]

In Nevada,Heller (R) is double digits ahead of Berkley. The majority of Nev. voters do not like ObamaHealthTax. That could help Heller even more. Again, this is not a pick up, it would be a hold for the GOP.

We also have to hold Lugar’s seat in Indiana. They don’t like ObamaHealthTax so I think we’ll be ok here. It’s close right now.

N.Dakota does not like ObamaHealthTax. I think we have a great chance of picking up Conrad’s vacating seat.

I believe Allen is a little ahead of Kaine in VA (Webb’s seat-D) Again, the majority in VA does not like ObamaHealthTax.

Ohio is another really close one. The hatred of ObamaHealthTax could push votes to Mandell (R). It’s polling even now.

Stabenow in MI is ahead of Hoekstra (R) at the present but Romney is strong now in MI, and could pull Hoekstra over the finish line. I’m not sure, but I would have to think ObamaHealthTax would poll better than 50% in MI so would not help us in this race.

[Reagan69]

Also Hawaii. That it is even considered a toss-up is stunning. Lingle (R) was gov. and was pretty well-liked. She would fall into the Scott Brown camp in the GOP (liberal Republican) but, it would help to get to the majority. I wouldn’t bet on winning this seat, though.

My calls on the Senate:

GOP loses Maine
GOP keeps Mass, Nevada & Indiana

Dems keep HI, MI.
Dems lose Missouri, Montana, New Mexico, VA, WI, FL

Ohio too close to call

[MrChips]

What about North Dakota?

[Charles Henrickson]

Claire McCaskill

Here in Missouri, I am fairly confident ObamaClaire McJobskill will lose. Remember, Obama himself lost Missouri last time, and ObamaClaire's connection to him will drag her down to defeat.

Our first question is who we're going to run against her. We've got three GOP candidates, Todd Akin, Sarah Steelman, and John Brunner going for the nomination, and they seem closely bunched together in the polls. I haven't made up my mind yet which one I'm going to vote for (although I lean toward my congressman, Akin).

Winning a majority in the Senate will be HUGE this time if we want to repeal Obamacare.

[hoosiermama]

Asked the same question....Best chart I've found is on wikipedia. FR will not allow it to be linked.

It give each seat up for re-election. Who the candidates are, a link to their websites. etc.

[Vigilanteman]

No way the Jackasses keep the U.S. Senate seat in North Dakota given my knowledge of the state. For one thing, the state has among the lowest, if not the lowest, unemployment in the United States. It has added a lot of worker bees, mostly male, as a result. I'm not sure how many will be voting, but a good share of them are young men which are native to the state and otherwise would have left (as I did in 1988) for the lack of job opportunity.

The jackass offering is Heidi Heitkamp, a well-known name in North Dakota politics but, frankly, a has-been. Even back when I lived in the state and was getting her start in North Dakota politics, her basic pitch was "vote for me because I'm a woman (she later added "breast cancer survivor") and I can make things more fair and bring you more pork."

That type of branding might have sold 20 years ago when the state was still losing jobs and population. But not so much today. She isn't even good looking anymore as she was back then.

[hoosiermama]

put “Wikipedia 2012 senate race” in search...Here is an outline of what they have. They are live links on the site.

4 Overview of races 4.1 Democrats/Independents retiring 4.1.1 Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (Independent)
4.1.2 Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
4.1.3 Ben Nelson of Nebraska
4.1.4 Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
4.1.5 Kent Conrad of North Dakota
4.1.6 Jim Webb of Virginia
4.1.7 Herb Kohl of Wisconsin

4.2 Democrats/Independents seeking re-election 4.2.1 Dianne Feinstein of California
4.2.2 Tom Carper of Delaware
4.2.3 Bill Nelson of Florida
4.2.4 Ben Cardin of Maryland
4.2.5 Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
4.2.6 Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
4.2.7 Claire McCaskill of Missouri
4.2.8 Jon Tester of Montana
4.2.9 Bob Menendez of New Jersey
4.2.10 Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
4.2.11 Sherrod Brown of Ohio
4.2.12 Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
4.2.13 Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
4.2.14 Bernie Sanders of Vermont (Independent)
4.2.15 Maria Cantwell of Washington
4.2.16 Joe Manchin of West Virginia

4.3 Republicans retiring or defeated in primary 4.3.1 Jon Kyl of Arizona
4.3.2 Richard Lugar of Indiana
4.3.3 Olympia Snowe of Maine
4.3.4 Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas

4.4 Republicans seeking re-election 4.4.1 Scott Brown of Massachusetts
4.4.2 Roger Wicker of Mississippi
4.4.3 Dean Heller of Nevada
4.4.4 Bob Corker of Tennessee
4.4.5 Orrin Hatch of Utah
4.4.6 John Barrasso of Wyoming

[demsux]

I like Brunner

[MrChips]

And who is the Republican alternative? Any polls?

[Vigilanteman]

GOP candidate is Rick Berg, the state's lone congressman.

The article linked is from the state's largest newspaper, The Forum which we nicknamed the Fargo Foolem.

It claims to be a Republican paper but, if so, it is certainly from the RINO wing of the party. Once upon a time, the paper endorsed GOP candidates which were left of former senator Byron Dorgan.

Once Dorgan and his twin Kent Conrad were no longer in competitive races, they backed Dorgan, Conrad and Pomeroy who was the state's lone congressman for two decades before Rick Berg defeated him in 2010.

I'm not saying there is zero chance of North Dakota going stupid again, but I am saying that developments in the state don't favor it. The Conrad, Dorgan and Pomeroy team reigned supreme and pretty much unchallenged with anything but token opposition from the mid 1980's until 2010 because the state was heavily dependent on the government pork they brought home and tolerated their liberal voting records in exchange for that pork. This is no longer the case.

[MrChips]

Thanks, this is good to know. I hope he runs a good campaign.

[getitright]

You are judging their ability to predict a last minute change of mind? They aint that good.

[Vigilanteman]

JFYI, recent polling has them both within single digits apart.

Heitkamp is smart enough to distance herself from the National Democrat Party, but I don't believe most North Dakotans are anxious to buy that brand of Kool-Aid again.