Posted on 10/31/2008 3:06:30 PM PDT by freeplancer
If what you say is true, put your money where your mouth is.
Anyone can go on Intrade today, pay $1600 and receive $10,000 back on Tuesday night if McCain wins.
Easy money.
It's not directly the fault of the (admittedly worthless) producers for putting these 'more-equal sheeple' out there, it's Ailes fault for not culling She(m)p and the other weak-kneed RINOs.
Ask yourself, why can't Fox hire Beck? Because BoRass doesn't want the competition. That means Ailes has lost the rudder of the ship.
Oops, Fox News did hire Glenn Beck, it was announced a couple of weeks ago.
Luntz is NOT just giving us the bad news...he is doing everything he can to try and ensure that Obama wins and McCain loses. Big, big difference!
It's not behind his back at all.
We're carrying out our own little "poll" here and it looks like Luntz is 'losing'.
sw
"All the rage is about Barack Obama walking away with the election this year, but hope still remains for the Republicans and John McCain, says the Betfair Contrarian...For those of you unaware there's a world beyond sport, here's a news flash. There's a big old election next Tuesday in the United States, with the Democrat Barack Obama enjoying the momentum going into the final weekend's campaigning. He holds enough of a lead in the polls that should his rival John McCain stage a comeback it would make Spurs' heroic climb from the grave at Arsenal on Wednesday look like a children's party trick. Yet for all their advantage, the Democrats dare not believe they are going to win, such is their reputation for tripping over their bootlaces in the home straight. You can get McCain to win on Betfair at 8.6 (Obama is 1.13) and the Contrarian for one will be having some of that. Here's why:
Obama can't rely on his young admirers getting out of bed.
From Friday's Guardian: "Potentially ... alarming for Obama is a detailed analysis in the Orlando Sentinel of early voting in Florida. While it shows a huge turnout among African-Americans, young voters on whom Obama is placing high hopes have yet to vote. Although the young have registered to vote in high numbers, only 15% of those under 35 have voted so far, the worst-performing demographic group in the analysis. If this trend were to be repeated on election day throughout the US, Obama's vote would be seriously dented." Is any group less tolerant of standing in long queues?
Obama leads in the polls, but the polls have got it wrong before. And recently.
Back in February, right at the start of the primaries (the process by which each party selects its candidate for the presidency) the pollsters confidently stated that Barack Obama would win in New Hampshire, some by a double digit advantage. When the votes were counted, however, the people of New Hampshire had preferred Hillary Clinton instead. "Rarely have pollsters and pundits been so wrong," said the Economist.
The press is talking about the "polls tightening"
Nationally Obama leads by between 5 and 6 points, although the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls has shown that lead to have come in from more than eight points since the beginning of the week.
There is a path to victory
Plenty of states are still up for grabs, and if McCain can find a last wind, there's no reason he can't take all of them. The RealClearPolitics map currently gives McCain 142 electoral votes, and he needs 270 to win. They have 85 electoral votes that could go either way, in the following states, all of which are traditionally Republican and winnable: Montana (3 votes), McCain holds a narrow lead; North Dakota (3), McCain is narrowly behind, but has held big leads during the run in; Indiana (11), McCain has led virtually throughout; North Carolina (15), Obama leads, but by a nose; Georgia (15), it will be a miracle if McCain loses here; Florida (27), Obama leads here by single digits, but Florida won it for the Republicans in 2000.
Then, McCain needs to take at least two big states from those Obama is confident of winning, such as Pennsylvania (21 votes) where he's cut Obama's lead from 14 points two weeks ago to single digits today, where they didn't care for Obama in the primary and where they love Sarah Palin; and Ohio (20 votes), where the Democrats fancied they'd win last time and blew it. If McCain can put that sort of devastating push together, the tiny handful of votes he then needs to win are bound to come (eg in Nevada). Game over.
There's a historical precedent for last minute presidential miracles.
Prior to the 1948 election virtual every measure of public opinion believed the race would be won by Thomas Dewey. He was considered so unbeatable that the Chicago Tribune even put out an election day issue with a "Dewey defeats Truman" headline. In the event, Truman carried the election by winning three key states, New York, Illinois and California by a margin of less than 1 per cent.
I'm also getting tired of 'Shep Smith. Saw him on the Fox Los Angeles morning show today and he was chummin' it up BIG TIME with all the Libs............
I was listening to local talk radio driving home from work. One of the participants of Luntz's focus group got through to the talk-radio show. She said that the last question Luntz asked was, "It's the day after the election. Obama has won. How do you feel?"
The caller said that after people responded and Luntz wrapped up, she asked him off air why he didn't ask the same question about a McCain win, and Luntz smirked something along the lines, "That's not going to happen."
Whatever happens in this election I'll always associate that crack with an ill-fitting toupée.
...and we didn’t need corny little dial meters to do it, either. *wink*
Everytime I go on FR it seems there are old friends who are now on our enemies list. In the last month I was told I can't trust: Brit Hume, Charles Krauthammer, Bill Kristol, George Will, Fox News, Frank Lunz, Rasmussen
No but vanities by people like you are really pissing me off!
wait a minute I’ve got to check my meter and see what I think about that question...
I’m sorry, maybe you rather read the trolls and the same article 50 times. We are allowed one vannity every year grouchy bear.
A caller on the Schnitt Show mentioned that see was paid to be on one of those panels on Fox News, maybe Luntz, she was supposed to be one of those “independants” He was totally biased for Obama.
Yes. The POS is starting to look more and more like an Obama jelly donut.
BTW, “POS” stands for “Pollster of Self.”
” We are allowed one vannity every year grouchy bear.”
Says who!
In over 10 years here i’ve never seen anything that allows even one per lifetime!
I'm reminded of the 2008 NCAA M's basketball tournament. My team (University of Memphis) had only lost one game all season, and was highly favored to will the Final Four. In the last two minutes of the championship game, UofM held a good lead. Then, one missed free throw, and the whole game changed. I had dropped off to sleep, confident that we had won, only to wake a few minutes later to find that we had lost in overtime. We can still win.
I don’t like him either - he coaches his focus groups to get the answer he wants & then cuts them off really quick when they don’t play along.
By the way, I prefer Frank “Duntz” Luntz.
If you had spent just a bit more on your TV, you coulda gotten one with an OFF switch, LOL.
However, you still could unplug the friggin thang.
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