TS Gustav & TS Hanna

NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[blam]

Mississippi Governor Says Evacs Will Begin This Weekend

[lonestar]

Can you update this?

[steveegg]

Gustav is all the way back...

000
WTNT62 KNHC 291915
TCUAT2
Hurricane Gustav Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL   AL072008
315 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2008


Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
Gustav has again become a hurricane with maximium winds near 75
mph...120 km/hr.

$$
Forecaster Knabb

[steveegg]

Judging by the blogosphere reaction, just about everybody to the right of Her Royal Cankleness is liking the Palin pick.

---

Back to business; here's the latest vortex data message that supports the rebirth of Hurricane Gustav...

000
URNT12 KNHC 291927
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 29/19:11:10Z
B. 18 deg 59 min N
  079 deg 24 min W
C. 700 mb 2924 m
D. 78  kt
E. 082 deg 021 nm
F. 157 deg 071 kt
G. 073 deg 027 nm
H.        980  mb
I.   8 C/ 3049 m
J.  14 C/ 3045 m
K.   9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 /  1 nm
P. AF307 1007A GUSTAV1 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 19:02:40 Z
SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY

Comparisons to the previous fix will be up shortly.

[NautiNurse]

Gustav is a hurricane. Winds 75 mph. 980 mb.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[steveegg]

Changes in Gustav between 1:20 pm EDT and 3:11 pm (not including the wind; the 1:20 pm VDM had not sampled the NE quad):

- Eye is now closed (had been open to the northeast) and expanded from 15 nm to 20 nm.
- Pressure down 4 mb to 980 mb.
- Motion to the northwest (315 degrees) at 13.2 mph.
- Location at 3:11 pm EDT was about 66 miles southeast of (and directly in line with) Little Cayman.

[rodguy911]

Thanks Steve, what is your best guess on Hannah, will she go though the straits and when?

[CTGOPPER]

My speaking gig at a conference in New Orleans was just canceled and moved to Baton Rouge in January. That works.

[Palladin]

Thanks, Nauti. Looks like this one will leave you alone.

TG that Bobby Jindal is Gov. of Louisiana at this critical moment!

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for the analysis. Good info.

[steveegg]

Thanks Steve, what is your best guess on Hannah, will she go though the straits and when?

Haven't looked at Hannah at all yet, and I'm not that good.

[NautiNurse]

I’m sure you are relieved with the schedule change. I hate the waiting & wondering game in these cases. Bad time of year for GOM travel plans.

[eastforker]

Politics aside, gustav looks to be leaning to the left. NOGAPS and NGFDL are aiming for Baytown at the moment.

[blam]

Gustav Headed For Current That Fuels Big Storms

By SETH BORENSTEIN , AP Science Writer, Space & Earth science / Earth Sciences

(AP) -- The difference between a monster and a wimp for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes often comes down to a small patch of warm deep water that's easy to miss. It's called the Loop Current, and hurricane trackers say Gustav is headed right for it, reminiscent of Katrina.

Gustav is likely to reach this current late Saturday, experts say. What happens next will be crucial, maybe deadly.

If Gustav hits the Loop Current and lingers in that hot spot, watch out. If the storm misses it or zips through the current, then Gustav probably won't be much of a name to remember.

[snip]

[rodguy911]

Gotcha just thought I would try. I know the trajectory on that one will be super tough.

[sweet_diane]

"If the storm misses it or zips through the current, then Gustav probably won't be much of a name to remember."

Ok gustav...get that zip on!

[eastforker]

I think you are safe with Gustav, Hanah OTOH might be the storm of the year in the GOM, maybe even the decade if the EURO model iscorrect. Also it shows another slamming the east coast of Fla. two days later.http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005101800!!!step/

[steveegg]

I looked at it, and I have no clue what Hanna’s going to do.

[NautiNurse]

Not much of a shift in the center of the cone for landfall since yesterday. If you follow the 5 day forecast track archive frame-by-frame, not much change.

OMG! Wolf Blitzer just asked Lindsay Graham, "Is Sarah Palin really ready to be Commander In Chief--if, God forbid--it came to that?" I am just about ready to throw a shoe at the tv screen.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Hi folks! I’m at the library, my computer is in the shop until Tuesday. Just stopping in to say watch out to NO folks, I’ll be back for Hannah, and GO SARAH!