The blocking high is building over Florida but this takes time.
Posted on 08/25/2008 8:27:52 AM PDT by NautiNurse
That was the rain that was supposed to relieve the drought here in Northern VA. Instead Fay bumped into a high over New England. In fact the high is now getting stronger.
Radar showing north central VA is beginning to get rain. Fay is a slow creeper.
Yeah, a couple of people have given me some great advice in PM’s. Main thing is to get out and head north. Now, if I could just get the boy to answer his phone it would help....lol!
VirginiaMom
The blocking high is building over Florida but this takes time.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2008
...Gustav gradually pulling away from Hispaniola...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti from the Dominican
Republic-Haiti border westward to Le Mole St Nicholas. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for
Jamaica.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba for the provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Granma.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las
Tunas and Holguin and all of the Cayman Islands.
Interests in central and western Cuba should closely monitor the
progress of Gustav.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was
located near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 74.4 west or about 140
miles...225 km...west of Port-au-Prince Haiti and about 90 miles...
145 km...south-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Gustav is moving toward the west near 5 mph...7 km/hr. A west to
west-northwest track is forecast during the next day or two with a
gradual increase in forward speed. On the forecast track...Gustav
should pass between Jamaica and the southeastern coast of Cuba on
Thursday. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast
track could bring the center of Gustav very near Jamaica.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast once Gustav moves away from
Haiti...and the storm could regain hurricane strength within the
next day or two.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
12 inches over Hispaniola...eastern Cuba...Jamaica...and the Cayman
Islands...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches
possible. These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in
areas of onshore winds in the Tropical Storm Warning area.
Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...18.8 N...74.4 W. Movement
toward...west 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph. Minimum
central pressure...997 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Rhome/Pasch
Thanks for the updates, bump.
Those of us that remember Allison in Houston understand it very well. Damn thing kept going out to sea and filling up its bucket and coming back in and dumping it on a different part of town. Wrecked the city worse than any hurricane has done.
That’s no lie! Another inch and it would have been inside my house. Many didn’t get so lucky.
I’m guessing they will become more gleeful as the week goes on.
Have you seen today’s 12z EURO? Scary stuff... Gustav as a big hit to New Orleans and another massive hurricane bearing down on and eventually hitting Miami area just a day or so later.. I’d probably rather see that from any model besides the EURO.
I haven’t seen that. I guess the Euro is developing Invest 95? Sounds bad either way. I guess it’s too late to hope Gustav hits the King Ranch.
yes, 95L would be the one headed to FL on the euro.. it gets worse after this graphic, but this has both:
http://img393.imageshack.us/img393/1057/helloov9.png
It’s been raining a lot in S TX too. My son goes to school in Weslaco and classes were cancelled yesterday because a lot of the students were flooded out. Just looking at the maps it looks like where ever Guss goes it’ going to be already wet.
Is it just me or did I see an eye try to start and develope in the last frame of Invest 95?
Presently, it appears that the track has shifted more northward and Gustav is projected entering GoM at Havana (or slightly E of it) sometime around sundown Sat evening. The track from that point is STILL projected directly towards South Pass, La. However, at this time it seems that Gustav would veer N at 28o N (St. Petersburg) and 88o W (Mobile), continueing that course to landfall Wed around sunrise.
At this time it doesn't look like landfall is going to be any worse than a rather angry tropical depression. And people along the GoM coast eat those things for brunch and spit the bones out by lunch time every day, right? Presently it would be a good idea to make sure the car windows are rolled up Tuesday night, and definitely bring an umbrella to work. BUT, if Gustov hangs out in the Gulf until Thursday morning, he would become a rather irate hurricane and lookin' to do some serious bruising; he'll have definitely a aerious temper in need of medication if no landfall by 4th Sep.
The NE movement I alluded to was from a speculative position near South Pass (towards AL). But at present it doesn't look like he's making it to South Pass at all. The previous Tampa reference was with respect to the GFS model at the time that had Gustav turning due N at Havana and then stalling 85o W 28o N.
Looks like GFS changed its mind on all that though and firmed up a track having Gustov running directly to South Pass from W of Havana, and then veering W, WWNW from South Pass. I have no confidence in GFS at present. That model has been all over the place. First it wasn't even showing him at all, then the aforementioned track, and even now, Gustov is nothing more than a pronounced wave, intensifying until entry into the GoM when he's totally cyclonic.
Frankly, I think all tracks are rather dicey until Gustov makes his appearance in the GoM (where ever that may be). We'll have a much better idea what's going on Saturday evening.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2008
...Gustav a little weaker...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti from the Dominican
Republic-Haiti border westward to Le Mole St Nicholas. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for
Jamaica.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba for the provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Granma.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las
Tunas and Holguin and all of the Cayman Islands.
Interests in central and western Cuba should closely monitor the
progress of Gustav.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was
located near latitude 19.1 north...longitude 74.4 west or 90
miles...150 km...southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Gustav is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph...6 km/hr. A
west to west-northwest track is forecast during the next day or two
with a gradual increase in forward speed. On the forecast
track...Gustav should pass between Jamaica and the southeastern
coast of Cuba on Thursday. However...any deviation to the left of
the forecast track could bring the center of Gustav very near
Jamaica.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast once Gustav moves away from
Haiti...and the storm could regain hurricane strength within the
next day or two.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
from the center.
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 999 mb...29.50 inches.
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
12 inches over Hispaniola...eastern Cuba...Jamaica...and the Cayman
Islands...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches
possible. These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in
areas of onshore winds in the Tropical Storm Warning area.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...19.1 N...74.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...999 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Rhome/Pasch
Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Number 11
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2008
the latest Air Force reconnaissance mission into Gustav indicates
that the cyclone has weakened a bit with a minimum pressure of 999
mb and a peak SFMR wind of about 45 kt. The initial intensity is
lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. Despite the short-term
weakening...atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for
re-intensification once Gustav moves away from Hispaniola...likely
tonight. Still...there remains some disagreement among the
intensity models with the GFDL and HWRF models showing robust
strengthening...and the statistically-based SHIPS and lgem models
that forecast only modest strengthening. Given the
uncertainty...the official forecast essentially splits the
difference and is very similar to the previous advisory.
Gustav continues to crawl west-northwestward with an initial motion
of 300/03. The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged.
Dynamical models show a middle to upper-level ridge extending from
the Gulf of Mexico eastward over Florida and into the western
Atlantic. This pattern should result in a westward to
west-northwestward motion over the next couple of days with a
gradual increase in forward speed. In 2-3 days...the ridge is
forecast to weaken and this should result in a gradual turn toward
the northwest...taking Gustav over or very near western Cuba and
into the Gulf of Mexico. By day 5...some of the global models are
now suggesting that the steering currents could weaken resulting in
a slowing of the forward speed. In general...the track models have
not changed significantly since the last advisory and the new
official forecast track is very similar to the previous one.
It is important to note that there still remains significant
uncertainty regarding Gustav’s ultimate track at days 3-5...and it
is much too soon to know what impact this system may have on the
northern Gulf Coast.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 27/2100z 19.1n 74.4w 45 kt
12hr VT 28/0600z 19.1n 75.2w 50 kt
24hr VT 28/1800z 19.2n 76.6w 60 kt
36hr VT 29/0600z 19.5n 78.1w 70 kt
48hr VT 29/1800z 20.2n 79.8w 80 kt
72hr VT 30/1800z 22.0n 83.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 31/1800z 25.5n 86.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 01/1800z 28.5n 88.5w 100 kt
$$
forecaster Rhome/Pasch
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