42058 is on the schedule for August repair. They didn't get to it in time, and it's one of those tall hummers SE of Jamaica.
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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Guess that new boat shape is working better than the round ones.
Looks like it, as long as they have a very good anchor!
Could be a wobble, an error, any of dozens of kinds of anomaly.
That’s why I post the disclaimer. I never post a landfall prediction more than 24 hours before the ETA. I start posting landfall PROJECTIONS as soon as possible after I become aware of a storm and can clear the decks of other activity long enough to download the positions and plot them. Huge difference between a prediction and a projection.
A projection says “this is where it’s pointed right now”, and cannot be argued with on any rational basis.
A prediction says “this is where I think it’s going to go next”. I’ve seen way too many hurricanes to ever make predictions more than 24 hours out, and even then, I usually hedge my bets.
There’s no telling what Dean will do before it’s all said and done.
However, projections based on what Dean has done so far are useful for two reasons.
One, it gives us a timeframe to begin with. Odds of a US strike before midweek next week are very low, based on current behavior. That allows me to get things done early next week, freeing up the late week and weekend for full attention to Dean, if Dean hasn’t changed course or speed by then.
Two, it gives us a baseline to plot changes against. You can’t have a wobble with only one position plot. No wobble with two position plots. No wobble with three position plots. You have to have four position plots to note a wobble. You really need five before you can start putting any confidence in a wobble.
You have to have at least three position plots to posit a course change. Four to place any reliability on a course change.
You have to have at least two data points to say it is strengthening or weakening.
Even though we know that Dean is liable to do anything between now and the time it dies in the North Atlantic (Pacific?), we have to start plotting data somewhere, to build a trend to measure future changes against.
If I lived anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico, I’d be making sure I had wood screws, canned food, batteries, battery driven comms, lights that don’t need a grid to work, and bottled water onhand right now. (I’m a thousand miles from the Gulf, I always have this and mich more preparations ready at all times, and in my opinion, starting preps for hurricane season right now is several months late, but if someone hasn’t, now’s a better time to start than Wednesday, when the store shelves around ground zero will be barem and the evac freeways already clogged.)
If I lived between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas, I’d be making sure my plywood was in good shape, and un-burying the plywood stockpile and my ladder, and charging the batteries for my cordless drill.
It’s too early to commit, but it’s not too early to lean forward, especially for Brownsville and points north, all the way over to Mississippi.
Me too, evacuating should be easier this time, I stayed for Rita but almost all of galveston/houston evacuated, traffic jam from hell (24 hours to go 4 miles). Media scared so many people that folks 100 miles inland at 50’ elevations evacuated! All roads clogged, no gas, no AC, no water. This time everyone is saying “never again, I’m staying” LOL, so it might be possible to actually leave this time.
42058 is on the schedule for August repair. They didn't get to it in time, and it's one of those tall hummers SE of Jamaica.
The Jamaican may have been referring to another buoy - and I just *ASSumed.*
Yes, but probably not for the reasons you think. I analyze engineering failures for intellectual exercise.
Online, usually at removed distance, usually by means of incomplete data.
I just yesterday found the east truss panels at pier 6 from online imagery. Onsite, I could have walked to it and identified it in 30 minutes. Remotely, it’s tough because there’s so little to go on. Onsite, it would be tough for many different reasons.
That’s pretty impressive about Playa. I did hear that they did well to get the electric back. But, I saw alot of destruction last year in Cancun. And this year prices were very high
(I have visited Isla Mujeres for the last 2 years. I have a soft spot for the island, so I am worried about the locals). Isla got back on their feet fairly quickly, even though it is a poor island with older that area suffered through Wilma even longer than 36 hours.
Have good friends in Corpus, so I’m staying on them.
Prayers are being said for everyone regarding Dean. I just pray damage is minimal and it doesn’t linger around ontop of anyone too long.
For all of you in it’s path, please be careful and know our prayers are with you.
We scooped it up when they gave it a huge markdown to make room for the new ones.
It's a Class C, but has plenty of room for even 6 people....33 feet.
It works for us as we mostly take it camping & to Disney (for granddaughter)...
The longest trip we've taken is Charleston.
We usually tow a 'roadie'...(RV language for car,lol)
It's a relief knowing it's there, ready to roll if we need to evacuate.
We have a generator and it's self contained for all needs.
May have to initiate it this year for evacuating....hope not.
Crazy that they would wait so long in prime locations. Sounds like it looked terrible for way too long. I’m sure the reasons for the delay bring up a whole different subject we could talk about for while, don’t you think? I love the beach, would love to live there again. Never suffered through a hurricaine though. So, please be careful this season. I’m sure you know exactly what to do by now though.
A word to the wise from someone that took a direct hit from Charley. Prepare. Take personal responsibility for you own safety.
For example: if people in NOLA would have built those houses on stilts they might have lost cars but the houses would still be standing.You have to know you local flood conditions and not rely on FEMA maps. Go WAY over board. A well built house can withstand 200 MPH winds w/ little damage. Poor construction can not handle 75 MPH. Of course there are some areas that get surge, but I contend you can construct to handle even that. If not MOVE.
We built our house ourselves. We kept having theft before our bricks got here so my husband put plywood up first. We bought trussels and a slew of hurricane straps. The inspector said that if our house went everyone was in trouble. We kind of got carried away:’)
Folks always evacuate beachside when told...(well, almost all)...
It's the structural damage I'm talking about...
..some of the older homes took hard hits...
..but even the newer (and supposedly hurricane protected) hotels took major damage.
The storms were wild and harsh!
LOL. Cantore has resurfaced. He’ll be in Cancun tomorrow, according to the wx channel.
I had that gut feeling with Rita long before it was forecast to hit the LA/TX border. I made my plans early and when the mandatory evac was called for my area I was ready to go. I could have left earlier but had a family member who had to work up to the last minute because her job was for the telephone company. I fortunately knew all of the back roads and took them. The main evacuation routes were very similar to TX, barely moving or not. It only took an extra 45 minutes to get to my destination. The areas 100 miles inland here did call for a mandatory evac and it was a good call because of it being very heavily wooded. The tree damage was unbelievable that far inland.
But if you're stuck on the freeway with miles of cars in front and back...
..it's lovely having a bathroom, refrigerator, etc. traveling with you.
Plus, hopefully, no more calling like crazy for reservations in every direction, and motels/hotels that jack up prices or overbook.
Plus & minus...yes, but it pays for itself, IMO.
Note that there are two groups of storms - the ones a bit further north recurved, whereas the three on the same track as Dean went towards the Yucatan and never got pulled far to the north.
Good historical trend for points along the Gulf from Freeport eastwards.
When my parents moved to Rockport in 1997, my dad had the builder create what he called a “third pig” house - the house the bad wolf could not blow away. It probably could withstand a lower-end Cat 4.
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