Are Democrats really united?

[JBassett]

I don't know if you refer to fence sitters as the same thing as those who are undecided but in general the undecided break for the challenger 7 out of 10. Assume 10% are still undecided at time of election and without the undecided the race is Bush 46, Kerry 44 and assume Nader is not running. If 7 out of 10 undecided break for the challenger Kerry then he wins 51 to Bush’s 49.

I don’t see Kerry getting a bounce over 8% but I don’t see Bush getting a bounce over 8% either since those undecided are very confused about this election. Based on historical election data and the fact that Bush has had difficult weeks Kerry should have a double digit lead such as 12% but it is a dead heat so Kerry does have a problem. His recent message that he will be talking positive about what he will do and avoid the Bush bashing shows there is polling information that the swing voters want to hear what each will do for the country. Bush is doing the same but he has been saying what he will do, being positive for some time now it is just the media doesn’t allow that to be seen unless one watches Fox.

[Casloy]

Your statistics and assessment of where we stand are good. There are a couple of things that I think will shift it for Bush in a different way than past statistics would suggest.

We are in a war. At least, people feel the same kind of threat as if we are in a war, and that may move the undecided in a bigger margin to the incumbent than the usual 3 out of 10. Second, as you pointed out the Democrats are going to talk positive about Kerry. Considering the fact he is far to the left he has a lot to overcome if he gets off the anti-Bush message and shifts to a Kerry message. It may not work. Third, the issues driving Bush's poll numbers down are improving. The economy is doing better and by all appearances the war in Iraq is calming down in terms of US casualties. If (and this is a big IF) those two issues keep improving it will help Bush.