SC: Democrats likely to lose Fritz's seat

TheState.com ^ | 3/9/2003 | The State

[Clintonfatigued]

I'm not totally convinced that everything will go our way. Jim Gibbons is hesitant about challenging Harry Reid, who has the support of some Republican money-men this time around. Also, John Thune is taking WAY too long to make up his mind, while Tom Daschle continues to rake in money. I fear that Daschle will not face a credible opponent again. I feel somewhat better about Florida, but if Democrats nominate Congressman Allen Boyd, a farmer and Vietnam veteran with a moderate record and northern Florida base, that one could drift out of reach. In South Carolina, Inez Tennenbaum (D) is better-known than her Republican opponents. You're right about John Edwards being toast. But in order to get a Senate which will confirm good judges, conservatives will have to work harder than ever before.

[Clintonfatigued]

I couldn't have said it better, myself. Miguel Estrada is a highly-qualified nominee who has done nothing to deserve the treatment Senate Democrats have subjected him to. But the only way to achieve it is to get better Senators elected.

[Kuksool]

If Ernest Hollings retired in 1998, Inez probably could have won the Senate seat. 1998 was an up year for South Carolina RATS. They made establishing a state lottery to fund government schools the main issue that year. However, the SC General Assembly approved the state lottery in 2001. Thus the RATS could no longer use that issue against the GOP.

In 2004, the main campaign issues will be the economy and national security, not raising taxes for government education. I don’t see the GOP nominee losing the South Carolina Senate race with Bush on top of the ballot. Bush should provide mighty coattails to the GOP nominee whether he be Jim DeMint or Charlie Condon.

In an open race, the base RAT vote is about 41%-44%. The base GOP vote is about 45%-47%. The tie breaking counties would be Charleston, Georgetown, and York. These counties provided critical support to Sen. Hollings and former Gov. Jim Hodges in 1998. Last year, the same 3 counties turned their backs on the RATS and voted for the Republicans. Thus, the Republicans made a near sweep of all the statewide elections in South Carolina.

The 2002 election returns for Governor and Senate are provided below.

Charleston County
__________________
Mark Sanford: 56
Jim Hodges: 44

Lindsey Graham: 53
Alex Sanders: 46

Georgetown County
__________________
Mark Sanford: 51
Jim Hodges: 49

Lindsey Graham: 51
Alex Sanders: 49

York County
___________________
Mark Sanford: 51
Jim Hodges: 49

Lindsey Graham: 59
Alex Sanders: 39

[Clintonfatigued]

Thanks for the info, it's very useful! I think that Inez Tennenbaum may be too liberal to win statewide. She is affiliated with Planned Parenthood. But another Democrat, Columbia Mayor Bob Coble is running, and is said to be more conservative. Also, Jim DeMint's vote for expanded trade authority for the President will be a liability.