Booster 22 Just Fired! SpaceX Goes for a Double Catch [23:36]

Transcript Chapter 1: Starship’s Next Catch: Coming Home Over Land

SpaceX wants to catch both halves of Starship on the very next flight. And on Sunday morning, booster 22 fired up on the mount on pad 2. The next big milestone on the road to Flight 15 is done. But to reach the tower, the ship has to come home over land, something no Starship has ever done. And that raises a question nobody has answered yet. In Florida, a machine just showed up that only makes sense if Starship is coming soon. But a new filing points the other way. So, where does flight 16 really launch from?

My name is Felix. Welcome to What About It? Let’s dive right in. Starship updates straight from the earnings call. Flight 15 goes for both. Musk’s words.

For flight 15, which we expect to happen next month, we are going to attempt to catch both the booster and the ship. Booster 22 and ship 42 both into the chopsticks. Today, let’s look at the part of that plan we haven’t talked about yet. How the ship gets home. Every booster that came back to the tower so far came in over the Gulf. Three of them on flights 5, seven, and eight. A booster flips around right after staging and flies back over the same water it just crossed. A ship is a different animal. It comes back from orbit along the path of its orbit. And that path doesn’t end at the coastline. To reach the chopsticks at Starbase, the return crosses land, including northern Mexico. And the paperwork already shows it.

Remember the FAA notice with the 456 launches from episode 578 back on October 20th? It has a line I skipped last time. Ship landing trajectories of 155 to 185° and of 240 to 340°.

Launches go out between 40 and 115° over the Gulf. Let me translate that. The ship does not come home the way the rocket left. It gets its own approach corridors and they are written into a federal document. So why does that matter so much? Because a ship return would be the first planned re-entry of an orbital starship toward a populated coastline. The big question, what’s underneath it on the way in? That has to be answered before anyone puts a ship between the chopsticks. We went up with SBI helicopters again for these shots. And if you’re ever at Starbase, you can book the same flight. Just scan the QR code. So, where is the license? Gwyn Shotwell on the earnings call.

Significant constructive engagement with the FAA. SpaceX expects the license to include the return to launch site and the tower catch for both stages. But as of last Wednesday, there was no flight 15 license modification on the FAA’s Starship page. By the time you’re watching this, it may already be out.

And when it is published, I’ll be looking for one detail. Backup splashdown zones. On flight 6, the booster catch was waved off. If something looks wrong on the way down, where does it go instead of the tower? I wouldn’t be surprised to see contingency zones in the Gulf in that license. That is my guess, not something we’ve seen on paper yet. And did the past two ships actually meet the criteria for a good landing? Flight 13, ship 40 splashed down and survived in one piece. Flight 14, ship 41, splashed down on target, then tipped over and burned. Is that enough to bring the next one home over people’s houses? Some of you have been wondering about this, and I do understand where it comes from. Ship 41 exploded after splashdown, so a C ship would explode, too. It’s a fair thought, but the two situations are very different. A ship hanging in the chopsticks can’t tip over in the ocean. That is the whole point of catching it.

And think about what’s riding on this catch. Every orbital rocket so far has thrown away its upper stage. Catch ship 42 and Starship becomes the first orbital launch vehicle ever recovered in full. A 52-meter ship hanging between the same arms that already caught three boosters. And Musk hopes flight 16 can fly both flight 15 stages again. That’s what this is really about. A rocket you fly again. So booster and ship both caught on the first try. Yes or no? Give me your answer in the comments. And pad 2 is already rehearsing it.

Transcript Chapter 2: Pad 2 Deluge: Rehearsing Launch and Catch

In episode 579, back on October 23rd, the mount on pad 2 disappeared in a wall of water twice on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it happened again. On the live camera clock, the first run started at 5:15 in the afternoon, Central time, and the second one about 7 minutes later. On flight 5, booster 12 was caught about 7 minutes after liftoff. Not a coincidence if you ask me. So why would a catch need water? The deluge floods the flame trench and the top of the launch mount to protect it from 33 Raptors at liftoff. A booster coming home to the chopsticks fires its engines right above that same launch mount. So SpaceX is rehearsing launch and catch in one go and checking that the water is ready again within minutes. Sounds logical.

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Transcript Chapter 3: Is the November 8th Flight 15 Date Realistic?

SpaceX hasn’t said so, but we’ve seen a hint before. During flight 14, the deluge at pad 2 started up while booster 21 came down in the Gulf. And the clock is running. On paper, flight 15 is still on earlier than November 8th. That’s 12 days from today. That date comes from an FAA planning slide, not from SpaceX. Musk and NASA both only say November. Flight 12 to flight 13 took 63 days. Flight 13 to flight 14 took 66 days. Flight 14 to a November 8th flight 15 would be 41 days. The fastest turnaround of the version 3 era by about 3 weeks.

Transcript Chapter 4: Flight 14’s Short Mission and the Raptor Software Fix

And Musk’s four to six weeks from October 10th lands between November 7th and November 21st, though the date and his estimate overlap. Flight 14 was planned as a 10-hour mission with six orbits. Ship 41 came home after about 3 hours out of an abundance of caution in SpaceX’s own words. So, what happened up there? And is this connected to the next flight? About 7 minutes into the flight, one of the ship’s vacuum Raptors shut down early. Serial number 127. The other five engines burned longer to make up for it and the ship still made orbit.

And the cause Musk on October 10th, the cause of the engine out I think was like basically a failure in the flight computer software or engine computer software I should say. Uh which it didn’t appear to be anything that was present in any of the other uh engine computers. His verdict that glitch doesn’t seem to be too much of an issue. It is pretty easy to remedy. If that is the whole story, it’s the best kind of problem. You fix it with code, not with a cutting torch. But it’s not the first time. This was the second vacuum rafter out in three block three flights. Flight 12 lost one, too. Which brings me back to ship 42. It went back on the cryostat at Masses without its engines. Software would explain flight 14. It doesn’t really explain pulling all six engines and pressure testing the ship again. But Musk dropped a clue on October 10th.

For the next flight, he said, “We’ve got to go inside the tank to make some of these changes.” Work inside the tank means testing the tank again, and that may be why the engines came off. My guess SpaceX hasn’t said why. And the payload side of flight 14 looks even better on a second look. On the earnings call, Musk said flight 14 deployed 26 terabits per second, equivalent to 10 Falcon 9 launches. And then he added maybe half loaded. Let’s compare it. A full load would be around 52 terabs per second. That’s around 20 Falcon 9 Starlink launches from a single Starship.

Transcript Chapter 5: Flight 15 Hardware: Booster 22 Static Fire

Now, let’s look at the hardware for flight 15. Last Wednesday, the booster quick disconnects at pad 2 were purging. That’s the plumbing that feeds the booster on the mount getting ready for a customer. Booster 22 rolled out overnight and arrived at pad 2 on Saturday morning. And on Sunday at about 8:22 in the morning, Central time, it lit up on the launch. Static fire. Our camera caught a burn of about 15 seconds. The next big milestone on the road to flight 15 is done. Ship 42 still needs its six engines back and its own static fire at Massy’s. One static fire down, one to go.

Transcript Chapter 6: Ship 43 and the Next Pair at Massey’s

Behind them, the next pair is moving. Back in episode 577 on October 6th, I said to expect ship 43 at Massie for cryo testing soon. Last Wednesday night, a road delay went up from the production site to Masses just before midnight. Ship 43 left me 2 on the cryo stand. Just after midnight, it was rolling down Highway 4. By early Thursday morning, it was at Massy’s for initial cryo testing. On Friday afternoon and into the night, it went through multiple rounds of cryo testing over 10 hours. Booster 23 already did its turn. It sat on the stand at Masses for about 12 hours on October 15th and is back in Mega Bay 1 for engines. So, which flight is ship 43 for? SpaceX hasn’t said, but ship 42 is the flight 15 ship. So, ship 43 is next in line. My guess, booster 23 and ship 43 are the flight 16 pair. This is my speculation.

So, can it fly this year? Ship 40 needed 83 days from its first trip to Masses to launch. Ship 41 needed 92. From last Thursday to New Year’s Eve is 70. That would beat both of them by almost two weeks. Ship 42 is going for 67 if November 8th holds. So, it can be done. Whether ship 43 manages it, I am not so sure. And the line behind them keeps on growing. A section for ship 44 went into Mega Bay 2 for stacking and a section for booster 24 went into Mega Bay 1.

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Transcript Chapter 7: Where Does Flight 16 Really Launch From?

The FAA’s planning slides have December 10th for the first Starship launch from Florida, a mission called Starlink 30-1. On October 1st, SpaceX put it like this. Things are going super well at 39A. At least one more Starbase flight comes first. The reported plan for flight 16 is December by barge to the Kennedy Space Center into the Gigab Bay at Robert’s Road and then out to 39A. And some of the Florida hardware is already there.

The barge, you’ll thank me later, has dropped off a ship work stand at the Kennedy Turn Basin and a Starlink loader. A Starlink loader in Florida. You don’t ship the machine that fills the Pez dispenser across the Gulf for decoration. Ships have to finish all their testing at Starbase because Florida has no ship test stand yet. So, the first Starship to arrive at the Cape arrives ready to fly. But there is also a paper trail pointing the other way.

SpaceX asked the FCC for Starship radio permission for a Starlink mission from Starbase. The window opens on November 25th and runs for 6 months. No flight number and it is a permission window, not a launch date. But if that’s flight 16, it flies from Texas and maybe before December. My hunch, SpaceX keeps a Texas option open in case 39A takes longer. That is just my speculation, though. The moment a Starship gets loaded onto You Will Thank Me Later, we’ll know. And the Cape doesn’t stop at 39A. Launch Complex 37 is approved for up to 76 launches a year between its two pads, and its tower is rising. And Florida matters more than ever because of one number. Musk on the earnings call.

We expect Starship to fly, uh, weekly, uh, at some point in the first half next year and then second half next year twice weekly or maybe even more frequently than that by the end of next year.

If flight 15 and 16 both fly this year, 2026 ends with five Starship launches. Weekly is about 52 a year. That’s 10 times this year. Twice weekly is about 104; that is 21 times, but there is a limit. Starbase is kept at 25 launches a year. The 456 launches are only a notice so far and even the first phase is probably more than a year away. Let’s compare it. 26 weeks of weekly launches is 26 launches. That’s already one more than Starbase is allowed in an entire year. So weekly Starship in the first half of 2027 means Florida pads online or Texas burning through most of its yearly allowance in six months. That is our math, not SpaceX’s.

Transcript Chapter 8: The Louisiana Spaceport Plan

And then there is the Swamp Spaceport. Louisiana’s own economic development page lists more than 100 billion dollars of investment in Vermillion Parish, five launch complexes with two launchpads each, construction by the end of 2027, and a first launch as soon as 2029. Musk on the call. Starbase Louisiana will probably have on the order of 20 or more launch towers. 5 * 2 is 10 pads. So, why does Musk say 20 or more towers? Looking at the side plans, the pads sit in pairs, side by side in a row. Five pairs make 10. A second row of five pairs makes 20. SpaceX likes to build in steps, probably starting with just one complex. So, 10 is the first big step, and 20 or more is the end goal. That is my take, not SpaceX’s.

Transcript Chapter 9: Boca Chica Park Sale and FAA Meetings

Now, two quick updates from Hope. The Parks and Wildlife Department said the commission is not considering the sale of the Bokeh Chica property at its November meeting. And Governor Abbott said that’s not coming up for a vote anytime soon. And a reminder for everyone in the valley, the FAA scoping meetings on the 456 launches are on November 17th in Brownsville, online on the 18th, and on the 19th in Port Isabel. Written comments are open until November 30th.

Transcript Chapter 10: NASA’s Artemis Acceleration Briefing

At Friday’s Artemis acceleration briefing at Kennedy, NASA laid it out. Artemis 3 is a 14-day test in low Earth orbit in the third quarter of 2027 with four astronauts in Orion. Blue Origin’s Blue Moon test lander launches first and the crew docks and spends about 2 days inside it. Then SpaceX launches a Starship version 3 test article from Florida with a docking system on its nose. Orion docks for up to two hours and the crew does not go inside Starship. For the real landing, Starship waits for Orion in Earth orbit, docks, and then pushes both to low Luna orbit. Which makes me wonder if Starship does the pushing anyway, what is SLS really doing there? A Falcon 9 and a Crew Dragon have carried crews to orbit again and again. Orion has done it once. So Crew Dragon is arguably safer and probably cheaper. And NASA still hasn’t picked which lander takes the first crew down in 2018 either. Everything on the Starship slide hangs on one test.

Shotwell on the earnings call. SpaceX will attempt an orbital refueling early next year and refly the second stage by early next year as well. On NASA’s chart, propellant transfer sits in the first quarter of 2027. Two ships in orbit, one pumping propellant into the other. Without that, there is no lander. Early next year is a date. It’s also a date that has moved before. And how many tanker flights does one moon landing actually take? I mean, come on, we need an answer. Last Thursday, a member of NASA’s safety panel said the latest estimate is around 22 flights. RS Technica’s Eric Burger reported it and Musk replied the same day. That is way too high. Actual number will be more like six to eight, which is exactly what I’ve been saying for some time. On Friday, NASA’s Jeremy Parson said they were definitely not tracking as high as 22 and that Musk’s 6 to 8 is probably closer to what SpaceX is planning. Isaacman added that if six to eight is the ultimate potential end state for this vehicle, fantastic.

Transcript Chapter 11: Blue Origin’s New Glenn Date

So now from one lander company to the other, Blue Origin New Glenn finally has a new launch date, at least a provisional one. Last Thursday, the same FAA planning slides that put Starlink 30-1 on December 10th got a new line. Blue Origin New Glenn 4.1 December 28th. Dulen 4 never left the pad, so the name looks like a second try at mission 4. My guess nobody has said so. This is an airspace planning date. Blue Origin hasn’t confirmed it. December 28th is 62 days from today, 3 days before the end of the year. That’s how hard Blue Origin is pushing to keep Dave Limp’s promise from June 30th. We will return to flight by the end of this year. It’s a race against the clock and I am rooting for them.

On May 28th, the rocket for New Glenn 4 exploded during a static fire and wrecked launch complex 36. Since then, Blue Origin has been rebuilding around the clock and switching to a support tower setup without the giant transporter erector. On Saturday, the rebuilt launch complex 36 tower was fully assembled again. Blue Origin’s Dave Limp says every module was repaired and put back in place. Another New Glenn second stage is heading to NASA’s Stennis Space Center on the Pegasus barge. Jeff Bezos wants the return to flight in December with a blue ring on board. His words, it could end up being December 31st. That is cutting it close. The FAA slide has it 3 days earlier and even January or February would be remarkable.

Let’s put that into perspective. A former SpaceX engineer told Eric Burger at RS Technica that 12 months was the best case and 18 months most likely. Back in episode 552 on June 9th, I called a rebuild in a few months ambitious but possible. Blue Origin is proving it and that matters for NASA and Artemis.

And then they asked for a lot more launches. The FAA is reviewing a request to go from 12 to 50 New Glenn flights a year at launch complex 36. 50 divided by 12 is a little more than four times today’s number. Starbase asked for 18 times. 50 a year is about one a week, the same pace Musk wants for Starship. The virtual hearing was last Thursday and comments are open until Friday, October 30th. And the hardware plans are real. Blue Origin announced new Florida pads, two new landing vessels, and a $330 million plan for upper stages. 1.37 million square ft built for up to 150 upper stages a year for the New Glenn version called 9x4 finished in the summer of 2027. Divide 150 by 52, that’s almost three upper stages a week. And then there is one sentence I can’t let go of. Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp says the company has made significant investments in human spaceflight technologies over the past couple of years. I have a hunch that’s about more than New Shepard.

This is full-on speculation on NASA’s chart. The first Blue Moon Mark 1 landing is planned for the first quarter of 2027. It launches on New Glenn. So any slip in December squeezes that date. So, can Blue Origin catch up by copying the Starship pad playbook? Blue is dropping the giant transporter erector for a support tower, and it’s adding pads and landing ships, plus a factory sized for cadence. After May, Blue Origin looks a lot more like Starbase than it used to. Whether that’s enough to close the gap, I really don’t know. I am all for it, though. The more, the better. And that’s it for today. Smash that like button. Subscribe for more. This is what fuels the algorithm, and this is how you can help us for free. Check out our epic shirts in your favorite space nerd store. Our all-time favorite Raptor engine design, and countless others are there for you to explore, click the card or the USO worldwide link in the description. History is being written in real time.

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SpaceX launches east towards two corridors one is between Florida and Cuba the other is Cuba and Yucatan Peninsula.

That’s on a descending node orbit as in the orbit first crosses the equator going north to south this descending.

Every orbit also has an ascending node where the second equator crossing is going south to north.

The inclination of the launch determines the angle to the equator at crossing. It is fixed in inertial frame and space unless you do a very costly high delta V maneuver to plane change.

So the inc to left at is the inclination you come back at. After 8-10 orbits Starship will be on an ascending node orbit aimed right back at it’s launch towers it will cross either between Florida and Cuba or Cuba and Yucatan Peninsula they will not do a reentry on a descending node over the West Coast and cross the half the North American continent. They are coming back on a south to north ascending node orbit for sure. This is also how Starbase Louisiana is going to work they will launch nearly due south to SSO orbits for Starmind the AI hive mind monster they are putting up. They wait 22-24 hours and on the ascending node orbit reenter over the Gulf from the South and catch having only flown over their own coastline under 100km and the legal space line.

If they come back a few orbits early and use Starship cross range lift vector they can cross the Yucatan Peninsula then which is largely unpopulated and they will still be well above 100km and legally in space no permission from Mexico needed above 100km.

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