US Polling ‘Nostradamus’ Predicts Which Senate Seats Democrats Will Flip

Newsweek ^ | October 9, 2026 | Emma Marsden

[MinorityRepublican]

Historian and political forecaster Allan Lichtman has predicted that Democrats will take control of the U.S. Senate in November’s midterm elections, forecasting that five Republican-held seats will flip to the Democrats.

Lichtman, dubbed the “Nostradamus” of U.S. election forecasting, expects Democrats to hold Michigan and New Hampshire as well as winning North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas and Alaska. His forecast would give Democrats 52 Senate seats against 44 Republicans, with the remaining seats held by independents.

Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the 100-member Senate, compared with 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats, giving Republicans a 53-47 advantage in party alignment.

In a video outlining his predictions, Lichtman pointed to growing dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump, strong Democratic enthusiasm and the party’s performance in recent special elections.

Lichtman Explains His Senate 2026 Predictions

Speaking to Newsweek on Friday, Lichtman said his midterm forecast was based on his own assessment of the political climate rather than a formal prediction blueprint.

“My midterm predictions are not based on a system but on my own knowledge of history and current politics. So take them with that in mind,” he said.

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TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS:

[Leaning Right]

I read (okay, skimmed) the article. This guy’s predictions boil down to what happened in the past. The party in power…blah, blah, blah.

Anyway, if he’s right about Texas in particular then the GOP has a lot of soul-searching to do.

[willk]

Wasn’t he wrong in the 2024 election? I thing these people have TDS so strong they are willing to sacrifice their livelihood.

[FlipWilson]

This guy’s meltdown in election night was epic. He had predicted a Kamala win.

[sopo]

yeah and he had a big melt down when questioned about it. He’s the dead horse anybody can beat in the prediction race.

[Fresh Wind]

This guy flamed out in 2024. Will it happen again?

[sopo]

from the article

Lichtman’s Senate forecast comes after his high-profile failure to predict the 2024 presidential election correctly. He forecast that Kamala Harris would defeat Donald Trump, who ultimately won.

[fireman15]

Lichtman said his midterm forecast was based on his own assessment of the political climate rather than a formal prediction blueprint. biased wishful thinking with an air of irrelevant historical context.

Fixed it.

[FlipWilson]

I love it when two leftists batter each other:

https://youtu.be/I8AQAckhMFQ?is=lJmbTYkiTQRRUq02

The Dems have nothing to offer. This weekend we are seeing a flood of “they will win cause it’s inevitable.” Lichtman is the Chariman of the Board for Inevitable, Inc.

[sopo]

trolling along

[Jim Noble]

The Texas race is very interesting because it’s an almost pure test of what will be left of the GOP after the RINOs leave or are kicked out.

People here always assume that “Cornyn votes” are “Republican votes”, and that therefore Paxton, by bringing MAGA people out who didn’t vote last time, Paxton can bank all “Cornyn votes” PLUS whatever MAGA votes he can scrounge up.

But there are “Cornyn voters” who despise MAGA and won’t be there on election day.

How many there are, and what that means for 2028, is a very important question.

[sopo]

totally discredited, in a moth-eaten wig

[mewzilla]

On polling...

Cynical Publius
@CynicalPublius

Please ask yourself two questions:

1. When was the last time that pre-election media were predicting huge Democrat losses?

2. When was the last time that pre-election media were NOT predicting huge Republican losses?

Since the pattern is obvious, why do you let it be repeated in your own mind?

This is war. Information war. Fear is the mind killer.

5:34 PM · Sep 26, 2026 391K Views

https://x.com/CynicalPublius/status/2103961369985040607

[FlipWilson]

The bottom line for me is this: The hatred and derangement towards Trump clouds everyone’s judgement. A person like Lichtman was clouded when he made his 2024 prediction. In the aftermath, the beating he took and criticism he took for that flawed prediction, made his rationality, even more questionable.

I don’t trust any poll these days. Other than historical trends, there really is nothing concrete to say what’s going on in this election. The Democrats and Trump haters would have you believe that the only issue is gas prices and the Republicans are doomed. I’m not sure I’m quite buying that.

[God luvs America]

yeh- he was dead wrong....and he blamed “misinformation” LOL

Allan Lichtman made the wrong presidential prediction in 2024 – why?

“”My system, the 13 keys to the White House, depends upon a rational, pragmatic electorate deciding whether the White House party is governed well enough to get four more years or not. That was shattered in an unprecedented way in this election, with the avalanche of misinformation and a feeble, almost nonexistent counter,” said Lichtman on FOX 5’s DMV Zone.

Lichtman blamed the misinformation on conservative podcasts, conservative media organizations like FOX News – and Elon Musk.

“We have something brand new this time, a 300 billionaire Elon Musk, who’s worth more than most of the world’s countries, putting his thumb on the scale and spreading disinformation on an enormous scale. Billions of people have viewed his disinformation. We’ve never seen anything like that,” said Lichtman.

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/allan-lichtman-made-wrong-presidential-prediction-2024-why

[fireman15]

from the article

If the article had placed, "Lichtman’s Senate forecast comes after his high-profile failure to predict the 2024 presidential election correctly. He forecast that Kamala Harris would defeat Donald Trump, who ultimately won."

Near the beginning instead of at the end, almost no one would have bothered to read through this tedious pile of nonsense. It is interesting that he admits that this is all based on his own biased hopium and no actual data.

[DIRTYSECRET]

These people need to put their money where their mouth is. Do that and they’ll be more honest.

Again, these people have 365 days a year to shoot their mouths off and we get only 1 day every 2 years to prove them wrong. We don’t rub their noses enough in it when we win.

[DownInFlames]

NC voters have lost their moral compass. I lived there for 17 years and was a wonder place. All those Yankees moving down from the NE has turned it blue. You could not pick a more immoral candidate than former Governor cooper.

[HamiltonJay]

Hah this is the idiot who claimed Kamala was going to sweep the 2024 election…

He’s a buffoon…

His “keys” hahaha

NC is only pickup that is all but guaranteed for the Dems…. And pretty much has been from the start.

MI is and always has been almost a certain pick up for the GOP.

TX ain’t flipping, ME isn’t flipping, let alone OH, IA or KS..

AK is the one place Dems could surprise. Wouldn’t hold my breath but it could happen. 1/3 of Alaskans are on some sort of assistance, and changes to them by the gop could result in a protest vote/backlash that could cause AK to buck historical norms..

Best case Dems could pick up 1-2 seats. Nc and MI are a wash.

[Ronald77]

If the Republican Congress throws this election to the Democrats because they have absolutely nothing I will never support the GOP again. It’s time for a third party. If not to late.
VOTE DEMOCRAT GET COMMUNISM, HIGHER PRICE AND MORE BLOOD LETTING IN OUR STRENGTH ETS.