Transcript
Chapter 1: Introduction to Maritime Stories (August 24th)
On this episode of What the Ship, we look at the top five maritime stories as of August 24th, 2026. I’m your host, Salaglano. Welcome to today’s episode. So, when there’s too much to cover in just a single episode, we jam them all together and we do a What the Ship because, man, there’s a lot of ship happening going on here. We’re going to do some updates. We’re going to talk about Starship 40. We’re going to talk about SLNC York. Talk about another ship that’s sinking off the coast of India. We’re going to do updates on the Strait of Hormuz and the Bob El Mandab. Cheers. We’ll do the Black Sea. Uh, we’re going to talk about you name it. There’s a whole ton of things we’re going to talk about here on this episode. So, strap in and hang on because we’re going to go through it at warp speed. If you’re new to the channel, hey, take a moment, subscribe to the channel, and hit the bell so you be alerted about new stories as they come out.
Chapter 2: Story 1: Starship 40 Operations at Christmas Island
All right, story number one is a batch of updates. First, we’re going to head down to beautiful Christmas Island. That’s right, Christmas Island. I got name dropped on the Scott Manley YouTube channel. Oh man, I can’t tell you how pumped up I am about that. Scott Manley, who does all space, uh, he’s got a massive YouTube channel, mentioned me. I’m just giggling here right now. But what we’re going to talk about is the arrival at Christmas Island of this vessel right here. This is motor vessel Forte. So, this is a Bascalis semi-submersible vessel. Now, a couple of things to note here. We’ve talked a lot about this in our last episode and I’ll have a link to it right here for you. You can go take a look at where we talk about where the ship’s going to go and how long it’s going to take there. But the most important thing here is the imagery that I’m seeing. So, real quick, the yellow apparatus here, this is the rig that obviously has been put into place that they’re going to set the Starship on.
Chapter 3: Story 2: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb
Chris Wright says the military helped move 15 million barrels of oil and petroleum through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and those claims have been coming fast and furious from the administration. Matter of fact, we’re hearing pretty large numbers coming out from them. Now, at the same time, we’re also seeing some issues emerge. The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are also having an impact. Lloyds reported this.
Yamu tanker calls fall as Saudis scrambled to keep crude flowing. Yamu tankers have dropped by more than a third since the Houthi blockade was announced on July 20th. Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude through a three-part workaround involving shuttle tankers, Egypt’s Sumed pipeline, and the Mediterranean port of City Career. Bari Sinor Daccom DHT and Angela Kois are among the owners running shuttle tankers. But the patchwork system ties up more vessels and adds weeks to voyage times for Asian buyers. So the whole issue about how much oil is coming out is a really difficult one because people are looking at numbers, and I’ll tell you that the patchwork of numbers isn’t quite right. So number one, it’s not 20 million barrels per day that were coming out prior to February 28th because you got to include the bypass. You got to talk about the bypass coming through the UAE and the one going through Yamu, Saudi Arabia. So that was 23 million barrels per day. So that’s your benchmark: 23 million barrels per day.
Now the US is saying that they’re getting, you know, anywhere from 10 to 15 million barrels out. And again, I’ve looked at different sources for it. So understand it’s hard to track because the US route, the southern route around Oman, has the tankers with the AIS off. So we can’t really track them. And not only that, it’s not that you can pick up the tankers when they come out on the other side because they don’t because they’re running shuttle tankers. The basically the government-owned tanker firms are being used to shuttle oil from inside the Persian Gulf to outside the Persian Gulf. They meet tankers in the Gulf of Oman, do a ship-to-ship transfer, and go. What we do have, however, is commodity figures, and these are the figures of oil that is being loaded and moved, and we have several sources for those. So this is a chart by LV Vision that comes out. It gives you the 7-day kind of moving average. You can see those where ship-to-ship based transits are taking place. We’ve got the undated outbound and then documented outbound. And usually, you know, about a week later we can track down where this is going. But this is not tracking anywhere near the levels that the US government is saying. Same time we have this chart by Rory Johnson. He posts these over on X. And here you can see that Hormuz’s outbound oil flow. Now you can see that pre-war level here at about 20 million barrels per day. You can see how late June we were close to hitting that based on several issues here, including Iran getting oil out. So we’re very close, but then once everything kind of went to crap, you see it drop precipitously here, the US restarts its route trying to go through, but here you see those Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers here coming out.
So again, we’re probably nowhere near where we need to be. But the question is, how is the US determining those numbers? Now, we’re seeing those numbers in several areas. So, for example, the Joint Maritime Information Center, and this is this composite put together by United Against Nuclear Iran. They put this together. You can see where they’re getting the voyages. Now, what’s interesting is they’re saying how many voyages are coming through. Not exactly clear on the amount coming through on this statistic. And then if we go directly to the Joint Maritime Information Center, this is their weekly sheet here. You can see that even they are not documenting the number of ships. They’re showing outbound full transits the last 7 days is only 18 vessels.
However, what the Joint Maritime Information Center is adding voyages that are not being tracked on AIS. Again, we’re just not getting a very clear picture. So, we’re somewhere between what the commodities traders are reporting versus what the US government is reporting. Now, the US government probably has the best visibility on that. However, they haven’t got the greatest track record in being forefront with their data and their information. And I got to tell you, truth, that leaves kind of a problem there. You really want that information coming out in a kind of, you know, some sort of quantitative data, and we’re just not getting that. Meanwhile, we’re getting reports of renewed attacks being initiated by the Houthis. So, this story on August 18th by Mike Schiller, a cargo ship has been declared a constructive total loss after being struck by multiple unknown projectiles off of Yemen. The UK MTO said Tuesday local authorities reported the incident about 40 nautical miles southeast of Al-MA.
The cargo vessel was unmanned at the time of the attack. The agency said the resulting damage had left the ship a complete constructive total loss. Now, we’re not sure about the size of this vessel. I’m not sure if it’s a full cargo vessel or a small kind of coastal trading vessel. We’re not getting a very clear image on that one. And then this story, a US sanctioned product tanker has been hijacked in the Gulf of Aden and redirected towards Somalia after six armed men boarded and seized control of the vessel. UK MTO said Thursday received a report of an incident about 136 nautical miles east of Al-Mukala, Yemen. The tanker initially broadcast a distress call on VHF channel 16, reporting it was being approached. The vessel has been identified by maritime security sources as a 32,200 deadweight ton product tanker Sabu 1. Lloyds List also identified the vessel as Sibu 1, reporting that its AIS broadcast a distress message reading, “Pirate on board, help.” I assume pirates. Probably not just a single pirate on board. So just a mess. I mean again, we’re still dealing with the Strait of Hormuz not being anywhere near capacity, and now we’re dealing with the Bab el-Mandeb. Cheers. Just being a complete mess thanks to the Houthis. All right, let’s go ahead over to story number three. Maybe this will get better.
Chapter 4: Story 3: Black Sea Conflict: Russia Rejects Grain Truce
Story number three takes us to the Black Sea. Oh, this is not going to get better by any means. I guarantee you this is not going to get better. Story out by Bloomberg over at GCP. Ukraine offered Russia a truce on attacks against ships carrying agricultural commodities through the Black Sea, but Moscow rejected the deal because it wanted guarantees against strikes on its energy infrastructure. According to Ukrainian President Zalinski, he said, quote, “It looks like their position is that they will not attack our grain corridor only if we stop attacking their energy sector.” Zalinski obviously does not want to agree to let lighten up on his attacks on Russia’s energy sector.
However, Ukrainian grain is beginning to suffer. Now, the Ukrainian strikes are obviously having an impact because we had this story also from Bloomberg. Russia’s government is planning a series of measures to support grain producers, including crop procurement, preferential loan extensions, and sale subsidies. The minister is also mulling alternative routes for agricultural exports given disruptions to shipping and other logistics caused by the Ukrainian drone attacks. Early this month, three of Russia’s largest grain terminals in the Black Sea port of Nova Riskai halted operations after being damaged. So this is that back and forth we keep seeing between Russia and Ukraine in striking infrastructure targets.
We also get this story from Lloyds. Grain carries under fires. The Black Sea conflict continues to escalate. Ukraine strikes five grain bulkers near Novarus Sky and TouPS in a major escalation against Russian export infrastructure. Owners’ appetite for Black Sea trades weakens as war risk premiums soar and security concerns intensify. Analysts warn prolonged disruption could cut Black Sea grain exports by up to 3 million tons a month with wider implications for food prices.
So again, this economic war that’s being waged between Russia and Ukraine is definitely hitting. Both sides are getting burnt out on the battlefield. And what you see is classic kind of almost World War I, 1917, where the Germans go for unrestricted submarine warfare. You see the Russians and Ukrainians doing the same thing. Russia attacked 52 civilian vessels in the Black Sea during July in the first half of August, according to the Ukraine infrastructure ministry, highlighting a sharp escalation in attacks on commercial shipping. The tally includes ships carrying food and other cargo to and from the Ukrainian port as well as vessels attacked while already in port.
The new figures emerge as Keith Kellogg, a former special envoy for Ukraine under President Trump, visited the port of Odessa with a US delegation. Remember, I mean, the Ukrainians have been systematically hitting Russian ships. I mean, we get music videos, we get the, you know, the countdown in numbers. We’re somewhere in the 200s now. So, they cannot be surprised that the Russians are going to counterattack. And as Lloyd reported, what we’re seeing is a massive increase in the war risk.
Black Sea war risk is all over the place as Russia and Ukraine target each other’s shipping. Riverport quotes hit double-digit territories. The concerns grow after five attacks on bulkers in a 72-hour period. The unpredictability of the situation makes forecasting difficult. In the story, it says this. One underwriter admits to having quoted as high as 10% of hull value for calls at the Ukrainian river ports of Renie and Ismal where cover could have been had for about 2.5% prior to the Russian attacks on Friday. Sources cite mid to high single digits for Ukrainian seaports and Russian ports while the floor is somewhat lower and probably in the 1 to 2% range. Even that is at least double where it was a month ago. So, I mean, like we don’t have enough trouble in the Middle East. We’ve got this going on since 2022 in the Black Sea. All right, let’s go ahead to story number four.
Chapter 5: Story 4: Chokepoints - Arctic Routes and the Panama Canal
So story number four, we did a video the other day where we looked at choke points around the world. Now, we’ve already talked about some of the choke points, but some of the other ones are still in the news. The first one takes us up to the high north to the northern sea route used by the Russians. However, it’s not the Russians that are in the news with this one. China operator Newu Shipping Line has expanded its footprint in Russia’s Arctic with the first delivery of containerized cargo to Morman via the northern sea route as the company moves toward a larger role in a shipping corridor attracting interest not just from China but South Korea and India. Matter of fact, there’s a story this week about South Korea expanding into this. The 29,000 ton Zinzenh1 arrived at Merman on August 19th after a roughly month-long voyage from Tangin carrying automotive components. The shipment of about 500 containers marked the first time the porter received a container from Asia delivered via the northern sea route.
Now this is not a huge number of containers. 500 is not going to, you know, unseat the major shipping lines. However, what this is is a beginning of a process where we could see more and more shipping coming through that route.
Now, we have another story coming from the Arctic route, but it’s not the northern sea route. It’s the Northwest Passage. That’s right. It’s the Canadians. A Dutch general cargo vessel has safely completed its first transit of Canada’s Northwest Passage since running aground on an uncharted shoal along the route last year. That’s bull crap. Can I say right there? I’m sorry, Malt. They may say that, but that shoal they hit is on the chart. I saw it. I could bring it up for you and show you exactly where it hit. They did not hit an uncharted shoal there. The 172 meter, not 564 Wagenborg vessel left Matain, Quebec on August 8th and is scheduled to arrive in Unan, South Korea on September 3rd.
According to AIS data, the voyage took the vessel through Franklin Strait where it ran aground on September 6th while sailing from China to Bay Kimo, Quebec. The vessel struck, again, I’m not going to say this, a shoal damaging a hole in several ballast tanks and causing water ingress. That’s called flooding. It was flooding. No one was injured and no pollution was reported. Now, what’s interesting about the Northwest Passage versus the Arctic Passage is the Canadians claim sovereignty over this. It’s within Canadian national waters. However, they control the passage through this, which raises a very interesting question about, you know, whether or not this is a transit passage issue and kind of hearkens to things like the Strait of Hormuz, Turkish Straits, Danish Straits, and things like that. The Canadians are trying to use this route. They’ve been really investing heavily in the Arctic route and we can see that coming through right now.
The last one of these choke points takes us down to Panama and the low water in the canal. So the Panama Canal is going to cut daily transits from 36 to 32 vessels by mid-September as the El Niño effect takes hold and drought conditions worsen. A new slot allocation system has been introduced as waiting times and auction prices for priority passes surge. Restrictions are adding pressure to global supply chains already disrupted by the Iran war and reduced Hormuz traffic. So get ready to bid out more spots. We talked about the fact that the Panamanians bid out last week $4 million for a container ship and $4.6 million for an empty tanker to go through. I mean, is there a guy at the gates of the Panama Canal like bidding it off like an auctioneer? That’d be awesome. That would be cool in a little boat riding around the anchorage just bidding out, you know, $4 million, $4 million, $4.5, $4.5, $4.6. That would be a job.
Chapter 6: Story 5: Global Container Shipping: Surging Rates and Port Congestion
That would be a great job to have. I need to think about a further career. Maybe that’s what I can be doing. All right, our final story deals with containers and global shipping in general. We have a couple of stories that really highlight what is happening with shipping. So, this one over at GC Captain, “Trans-Pacific container rates surge as carriers cut capacity.” The Drury World Container Index increased 4% this week to $4,526 per 40-foot container, with gains on routes from Asia to the United States offsetting softer rates on Asia-Europe.
Spot rates from Shanghai to New York jumped 9% to $9,57. Wow, that is an amazing cost right there. And Shanghai to LA is $6,82.
Capacity from Asia to the US East Coast fell 9% month-over-month in August, while capacity to the West Coast edged down just 04%. The combination has helped carriers maintain upward pressure on rates, kind of called like rate fixing a little bit there, even as the traditional peak season shipping progresses. Drury expects transpacific rates to remain stable next week. Additional costs could be coming for cargo moving to the East and Gulf Coast. Several carriers have announced Panama Canal surcharges on Asia, US East Coast, and Asia Gulf Coast beginning in September. Now the Asia to Europe is a lot better, but it’s Asia to the US right now. And add to it the new mix of tariffs coming in from the US. I mean, we got a fight with Canada right now regarding tariffs. So, I mean again, we’re seeing containers in flux.
Then you get this story from Maritime Executive: “Port delays and congestion absorb 5% of industries TEU capacity.” This has been a lingering story out there, and I’ve seen, you know, references to it. I’ve been following it a lot. The amount of empty containers piling up in ports is beginning to accumulate, and this is causing congestion across the ports. This is, you know, what happens when Tetris, you know, gets all kind of clogged up and you can’t move anywhere. That’s what’s happening with containers worldwide. So, we’ve got an escalation in rates on that Asia to US route. We’ve got containers kind of piling up.
But then we have a fairly interesting good story here over at Freight Waves: “Greenlight for a new US port that will handle two million containers a year.” This is Mediterranean Shipping Company and Ports America partnering on the Louisiana Gateway. This is a really interesting proposal. There’s been efforts to try to increase the ability to move containers by inland waters in the United States, but right now on the Gulf Coast, really your main container port is Houston, and Houston is also a huge fuel port. And so that’s always been an issue. But as we see population shift in the US, southern population particularly increasing, a Louisiana port would definitely help relieve some potential congestion. It’s also going to cause a lot of competition between the ports.
And then finally, this story by Greg Miller, who I think always captures everything perfectly. Great one to end on here: “Shipping is firing on all cylinders as rate strength spreads.” Global container freight indices and trans-Pacific indices continue to rise, hitting fresh multi-year highs this week. Very large crude carrier rates continue to spike, reaching their highest point since the beginning of the Hormuz crisis on Friday. Very large gas carrier spot rates are double where they were a year ago in dry bulk. Year-to-date averages for Cape sizes and Panamaxes—these are ships that can go only around the Cape of Good Hope—and then Panamax, which can just fit through the Panama Canal, are up over 60% versus the same time last year. Rising restrictions at the Panama Canal should support both very large gas carriers and Panamax bulker spot rates due to higher ton miles.
Chapter 7: Final Thoughts and Channel Announcements
So what are we seeing from those five stories? Obviously, the updates on the rescue attempts of Starship SL SLNC York and the Indian vessel are very important. But when we look at the last four stories, these four stories are completely interrelated. When you have disruptions being caused at Hormuz and the Babel Mandab, and when you have disruptions up in the Black Sea, you push freight and shipping into other routes, hence the Arctic routes. Also, you use alternative routes like Panama. The problem with Panama is that low water is causing disruptions. Tariffs in the United States are causing people to want to frontload cargo. So, we had a lot of cargo moving very early in the cycle when we normally see cargo moving in the peak rates. That has moved off, and what we’ve seen is a spike in freight rates. Right now, we’re seeing congestion in the ports, and one of the reasons why you want to see the development of new ports. But, as Greg Miller notes, rates are just going through the roof. And that’s what we’re seeing right now.
As diesel fuel and global fuel prices go up, transportation costs go up. And that’s the kind of factor we’re seeing. Understand it doesn’t matter what the US says about how much oil is coming out of the Persian Gulf because it’s not just oil that comes out of the Persian Gulf. It’s gas, it’s sulfur, it’s ammonia, it’s fertilizer, it’s tons of stuff. As long as we’re causing disruptions in global shipping, we’re going to see increased freight costs, which means inflation, which means it’s more expensive to move goods. And what we’re seeing is a lot of protectionism coming up with tariffs and the protection of their cargos in and around these areas. It’s a type of ocean shipping we have really never seen before. Not in modern days. I mean, this is completely redrawing maps and changing the way goods are moving. It’s creating problems for the freight forwarders. It’s creating problems for shippers. It’s creating problems for the ocean carriers. And it’s creating problems for you because what you’re seeing is higher gas and diesel fuel prices and increased costs for food. I mean, all of that manifests itself. But understand what governments try to do to offset that is very minimal. It’s like the Jones Act waiver in the United States hasn’t done anything. It hasn’t decreased the cost of fuel. Without it, would fuel costs be higher? I don’t know. But it’s not going to alleviate it because the underlying problem here is what is happening in the Middle East. That’s the problem along with what’s happening up in the Black Sea. As long as you have wars going on, it’s going to disrupt global shipping. And that’s what we’re seeing happening right now.
I hope you enjoyed today’s episode. If you did, hey, take a moment, subscribe to the channel, and hit the bell so you learn about new videos as they come out. Leave a comment, share it across social media, and if you can support the page. How do you do that? Well, you can hit the super thanks button down below or head on over to Patreon and become a monthly or yearly subscriber. So, big news for what’s going on with shipping: I got invited to head out to a little island here in the middle of the Pacific to give a talk at the Daniel Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for the Department of Defense, call it that. So, I’m going to be out there for a couple of days this week. I fly out Tuesday, be there Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and coming back in on Saturday. So, I’m really excited to be out there. If you’re out in Hawaii, let me know because I’m going to be out there for five days. So, I’m looking forward to it a lot.
