RCMP ‘Crime Gun’ Story Has a Major Numbers Problem

AmmoLand ^ | July 19, 2026 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

RCMP tracing records do not represent every gun used in Canadian crime—and the most important percentage in the report lacks a clearly identified denominator.

CTV News recently published an article about “crime guns” traced by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP). Careful analysis of the information provided shows the article is as much about spin as enlightenment.

Statistics Canada previously reported in 2023 that, where newly collected data were available, 92% of firearm-related violent-crime incidents did not involve the recovery of a firearm. That finding, however, was based on data reported for only 9.2% of firearm-related violent-crime incidents, from police services covering approximately 24% of Canada’s population.

Separately, Canada’s federal briefing notes, using primarily 2020 data, estimated that about 20% of firearms seized by police were submitted for tracing. Because the two figures come from different datasets and distinguish between firearms “recovered” and “seized,” they cannot be combined into a precise national tracing funnel. They nevertheless demonstrate that traced guns are a selected subset of firearms encountered by police.

Of the ones sent in for tracing, the sample in the CTV News article excluded most of the traces done in Ontario and Quebec. Of those, the definition of a “crime gun” is broad and includes many non-violent crimes.

Ontario and Quebec Create a Major Data Gap

Ontario and Quebec have their own firearm tracing systems. Information from those systems was not included in the article.  Information from the most populated parts of Canada was not included. The sample for the CTV News article was not representative of all Canadian firearm traces.

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TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: banglist; ca; guns; statistics

[marktwain]

It is not difficult to lie with statistics. A common way to do so is to select the sample you want to get the result you want. It is a form of selection bias.

[MtnClimber]

I wonder if the definition of a “crime gun” would include the possession of a gun without the proper permit?

[butlerweave]

Carney the spin master probably told them what to do

[556x45]

Tracing supposes a registry of some sort used to base a history on. If that’s the case then the results are unsurprising. Databases are sold as crime fighting tools but in fact ultimately are used for confiscation.

[Big Red Badger]

“Selection Bias”...
Sorta like our current Voteing Problems.

[edwinland]

This analysis completely undermines the Canadian government’s claim that ... what?

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

I have been keeping up with the 2026 Tumbler Ridge shooting in Canada. So far no mention of the types of firearms used except one was a “rifle.” A blackout on all info about it.