[Predicted 20 yeas ago]: 'Tehran’s trump card' (4/23/06)

CLIFFORD KUPCHAN is a director at Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm.

IRAN’S KEY ALLY in the current nuclear crisis is not Russia or China. It’s oil. Tehran can easily drive up prices and is already beginning to do so to rattle the West. As the crisis escalates, Washington’s diplomatic partners will become gravely worried about their energy supplies. In the end, Iran’s petro power will probably trump Western diplomacy.

Just look at what’s happening: Tehran’s bravado announcement April 11 that it had mastered key nuclear technology drew censure from world capitals. But it also drove oil prices to more than $70 a barrel on fears that increasing tensions or future military strikes might disrupt Iranian exports and damage Western economies. Prices have risen more than $8 a barrel in less than three weeks, primarily because of Iran.

Speaking about Eurasia:

Netanyahu Go Nuclear To Cripple ‘Bitter Rival’ Once For All?
Jun 17, 2025 — Iranian military commanders are threatening Israel with the use of what may be termed an ‘Islamic Bomb.’ https://www.eurasiantimes.com/iran-threatens-to-use-islamic-bomb-on-israe

What has puzzled me for a few years is Iran has been enriching uranium to almost weapons grade but not to weapons grade. The last enrichment phase is quick and easy. It would be stupidity to think they did not go to this degree of enrichment, and thus have a few nukes now. I think they are scared to use them. If they hit Israel or the United States they would be reduced to a smoking ruin. The USA would destroy them. Israel would make Tehran a glass parking lot.

I pray neither of the above happens. I lived in Iran as a kid under the Shah and it was good. Most of the people are pro -western and despise the theocracy. I always wonder what happened to my good friend of childhood, his name was Ali and lived next door. His dad was a colonel in the police but not Savak. I would suspect he is dead due to his father’s stature with the police.

It was a great privilege to drink tea next door with Ali and his dad and friends. We would sit in a room for tea drinking and were served caviar on crackers by his sisters. At the time I did not realize what a privilege had been extended to me. I spoke no Farsi, Ali translated for me.

Aside from the above we were just kids and friends and playmates. I hope he is alive today.

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