Midterms victory could set up Democrats to fail in 2028

Unherd ^ | March 26, 2026 | Michael Baharaeen

[MinorityRepublican]

On Tuesday night, Democrats in Florida flipped a Republican-held seat in Senate District 14 and another in House District 87 — home to President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence. The latter was an especially impressive result, as HD-87 voted for Trump by an 11-point margin in 2024. These wins brought the Democrats’ total state-legislative flips during the President’s second term up to 12.

They also provide the latest evidence that a “blue wave” is building ahead of the November midterm elections. Across all special elections held since the start of 2025, the average swing has been a massive 14 points toward Democrats. For context, at this same point during Trump’s first term the average swing was 11 points in their favor.

Looking at the big picture, Democrats have a lot to be optimistic about going into the midterms. They not only cleaned up in the major off-year elections of 2025, but also benefited from a powerful historical tailwind: the president’s party is almost always punished by voters in November.

These tend to be steeper when the incumbent is unpopular and economic expectations are poor (and expected to get worse). Moreover, betting markets not only overwhelmingly favor Democrats to win back the House of Representatives, but their chances of reclaiming the Senate have shot up from just 25% in November to almost 50–50 today.

[stanne]

Some say they’re done either way. That makes sense

[norcal joe]

In your excerpt, why don’t you include anything from the main part of the headline: “Could set up Democrats to fail in 2028”? Again, just posting the bad news.

[william clark]

Not likely. If they win the midterms, the damage they’re able to do before 2028 will ensure that no safeguards will exist to prevent them from rigging/stealing the election for the Presidency, which they may actually snag before then by nuking the filibuster, then changing the rules/laws regarding impeachment to guarantee their ability to remove both Trump and Vance, and thereby moving the at-that-point Democrat Speaker into the Oval Office.

We can not afford to lose the midterms.

[FreeperCell]

We are openly talking about them stealing the

[neverbluffer]

The senate cant change the two thirds vote to convict on impeachment.

[Revel]

Maybe the human population is just too stupid to survive. And it is basically over for humanity.

[ModelBreaker]

Not sure Americans will put up with 6 more impeachments in 2 years.

[quantim]

“...Democrats have a lot to be optimistic about going into the midterms.”

For certain, the do-nothing but spend, worthless GOPe/uniparty/RINO cabal has done nothing since the BBB bill at the beginning of President Trump’s second term. Well that’s not totally true, they manage to put $6 billion+ a DAY on the national debt.

Not enough fractional right-of-center politicians to get re-elected, Impeachment III coming up. Would love to be totally wrong on this.

[pawpawrick]

I have a deep feeling the republicans will be wiped out in November. The democrats just killed a simple form of ID so they fully plan to pull out all the stops to steal the majority. The republican base is beyond frustrated watching the people they elected get run over by the minority. I hope that Thune thinks the money he’s making to stop ending the filibuster is worth the pain it will cause when the dems get power again. They’ll end it in the first ten minutes and that will be the end of everything we’ve survived for 250 years.

[Georgia Girl 2]

I still think Trump is going to have to come out with a national emergency order and take over the midterm elections. If not they will definitely be rigged again.

I don’t really think this will happen but if the Democrats flipped the House and Senate they would immediately impeach and remove Trump and Vance. Hakeem Jeffries would become President. This country would be over.

[bassmaner]

Sounds like a Fort Sumter moment ...