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Posted on 02/27/2026 6:02:43 AM PST by DFG
Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30) isn’t just leading in the Texas Democrat U.S. Senate primary anymore. She’s pulling away, and she’s doing it as early voting is already underway.
The latest statewide survey, conducted Feb. 2 through Feb. 16 among likely Democrat primary voters, shows the Dallas congresswoman expanding her edge over state Rep. James Talarico. Early voting began Feb. 17 and runs through Feb. 27 ahead of the March primary, which means this shift is happening while ballots are being cast.
“Crockett leads Talarico 56 percent to 44 percent among likely Democratic primary voters statewide.”
Twelve points.
That is not a wobble. That is movement.
Late-January polling had her up by 8 points after a stretch where the race looked tighter. The trajectory since then has been in one direction.
The broader polling average tells the same story. This is not a one-survey spike. It is a widening margin.
Inside Democrat circles, the tone is already shifting. One longtime party strategist posted this week that DSCC sources believe Crockett is “likely winning,” adding that an attack line against her opponent “worked.” Whether that is spin or confidence, it is not the language of a campaign expecting the race to tighten.
On the Republican side, it looks very different. The GOP primary between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn remains tight, with single-digit spreads and competitive movement depending on the poll. That race is still unsettled, with neither candidate breaking away in a way that signals clear consolidation among Republican voters or a settled direction inside the party.
The Democrat primary is increasingly not.
Primaries usually tighten as voting begins. They do not typically widen. Moving from a single-digit edge to a 12-point margin while ballots are being cast suggests Democrat voters are making a decision, not hesitating.
Crockett has not built her profile by playing it safe. Over the past year, she has leaned into sharp exchanges, viral moments, and snappy soundbites that regularly spill beyond Texas politics. In recent immigration flashpoints, Democrat lawmakers used similar framing, condemning federal enforcement actions before all the details were clear, only for later information to destroy the narrative. That posture has not hurt her in this primary. If anything, it appears to be part of what is consolidating support around her.
While Republicans are still competing for position, Democrats appear increasingly comfortable with theirs.
Polls are snapshots. They always are.
But widening margins during early voting are not meaningless noise. They suggest consolidation. And consolidation this early is not accidental.
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The Texas Teenybopper Birthday Girl Senator. The steers and queers are on the move.
We have passed the tipping point where more are serviced by Big Gov than are enslaved by it.
The fall has become inevitable.
Party and ideological purity above all else when it comes to democrats
Snappy sound bites?? Crockett sound bites from her are just plain vile.
The gimmie gimmie gimmie voting block.
Don’t discount this nutcase. RATs are planning to come out in droves over and over and they will vote for her.
Those same rats plan to vote over and over and over again too.
Early voting is already underway.
When a democrat loses at the end then they cry it was rigged.
Trump caused it wa wa wa ......
I see Texas has the same issue as New York: The more utterly moronic a candidate is, the more support they get. I will never understand Democrats in a billion years.
RATs are planning to come out in droves over and over...and vote for her...
Over and over being the key phrase, there!
Good. I’d like to see that little prick Talerico go down in flames. Everyone knows Crockett is an idiot. But Tallarico has that empty headed permanent smile, he looks like he’s about 15 years old, and he’s a preacher. There’s no chance in hell to Texas will Crockett as a senator. But there’s a small, ridiculous, outside chance they could collect him. And he could be around for years
On Clay and Buck show there was discussion about pubs pulling an operation chaos. I heard one guy on the air describing his delight in voting for her. :-)
Yes, I see this as good news. Talerico would be much more dangerous in the general.
Give me a break
man...if she wins, that head will really be bobbin and weavin, fingers snappin. You go gurl!!!
I can’t exactly explain it, but that’s how I see it also. He’s like a young Beto…. Best to put him down now. And I can’t think of a worse candidate to run statewide than Jasmine Crockett. She is the product of a very black district, and has no chance state wide.
From my observations at a couple of polling locations, in a predominately Republican area.
There are more black voters coming early than I have noticed, in our area, than ever before.
Having lived half my life is very strong Democrat areas, I was used to seeing the vote early, vote often phenomenon.
It makes me suspect that the large black churches in southern Dallas have started pushing their candidate.
Over the years, I have noticed that they do tend to vote as a block.
Especially if threatened by other Democrats.
But it would be delicious to have a photogenic gay white male, instead of another screeching harridan, on the Dem aisle.
Is that what is left of Dem politics, unions, blacks and gays?
So the Stephen Colbert thing actual hurt Talarico? LMAO
No, not even a little bit. He’s smarter than her, he’s a doctor communist, and he cloaks everything. In the language of Christianity. And he’s only like 35. It would not be delicious to have him as a Texas senator for 30 or 40 years.
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