How Much Was the Government LYING About the Illegal Immigrant Crime Wave? Did the crackdown on illegal immigrants coincide with a huge drop in crime?

The legendary Jack Bogle was referring to the financial market, but his sentiment also applies to crime statistics: Nobody really knows the actual crime rate — or who’s committing the crimes.

For about 10 years, I did PR for a fintech company that specialized in cybersecurity. You’d think online crimes would be the easiest to verify, but most of the crime stats were manufactured: We’d extrapolate data from Category A and project it to Category B.

Look, if we can’t accurately quantify crime stats in a closed ecosystem like cybersecurity, we don’t have a prayer of tabulating crime rates everywhere else. Too many variables.

This raises the question: What’s the true rate of illegal immigrant crime?

Furthermore, it’s reasonable to assume that someone who’s cagey enough (or well-connected enough) to illegally cross the border, live in the shadows, and evade authorities would likely be a more successful criminal than your Average Joe. And if illegal immigrants are targeting other illegal immigrants, that increases the probability of the victim staying silent — for very obvious reasons.

But every now and then, a state does make a good-faith effort to record the stats. Last year, Tennessee did.

We still don’t know the actual illegal immigrant crime rate because we don’t know how many illegal immigrants are in Tennessee.

Some studies estimate 186,000, but the God’s honest truth is, nobody knows for sure.

But if it’s true:

[I]f there are 186,000 illegal aliens in Tennessee and 21,648 criminal charges, that would come to one charge per every 8.6 illegal aliens. (The numbers aren’t perfect because some illegals were charged with multiple crimes, but this, alas, is about as close as we can get.)
Meanwhile, native-born Americans are incarcerated at a rate of 1,221 per 100,000, or just 1.22%.

Nor do we know for sure how many illegal immigrants are in the U.S. Estimates vary by the millions — a statistically significant differential. Let’s use Pew Research’s claim of 14 million.

Pew’s 14 million is about 75.3 times bigger than Tennessee’s 186,000. Which would imply — assuming Tennessee’s illegal immigrant crime stats aren’t unusually high or low — that the national crime stats for illegal immigrants are approximately:

1,630,094 total criminal charges in 2025
164,380 violent offenses
3,087 homicides
119,877 assaults
10,918 sexual offenses
828 child rapes
3,012 aggravated kidnappings
219,876 DUIs
400,445 cases of driving without a license or on suspended/or revoked

Are those numbers too high? Too low?

Or dead accurate?

Probably too high: There are roughly 23,000 homicides in the U.S. each year. It seems unlikely that illegal aliens are responsible for 1 in 7.5 homicides.

But then again, less than half of all homicides are ever solved. So you can’t rule it out either because nobody knows the answer.

What we do know is that two events converged: President Donald Trump’s unprecedented crackdown on illegal immigration and the national crime rate dropping to its lowest levels in 100 years.

From Axios:

Murders fell 21% last year in 35 large U.S. cities — the biggest one-year drop ever and likely the lowest rate since 1900, Axios-reviewed data shows.
Why it matters: The decline signals a complete reversal of the COVID-era crime wave.

If our hypothesis is that illegal immigrant crime is being dramatically underreported, it would be logical to assume that a crackdown on illegal immigrants and/or border crossings would coincide with a drop in crime. Limiting one should limit the other.

The entire US technology workforce is approximately 4 million people.

So over 20 years approximately **6.25 million foreign nationals (H1B) (mostly Indian young men) entered the United States specifically to work in technology roles.**

That number is larger than the entire current US tech workforce.

Which means the pipeline didn’t just fill available jobs. It created a surplus of foreign tech labor that actively suppressed wages, crowded out American workers, and generated the $5 trillion transfer to corporate shareholders.

They didn’t import workers because there weren’t enough Americans.

They imported more workers than the sector could absorb specifically to create a labor surplus that drove down wages and increased corporate profits.

That is not a labor shortage solution.

That is deliberate wage suppression at industrial scale.

6.25 million foreign workers imported into a 4 million person sector.

The math tells you everything about the intent.

Download this spreadsheet :

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/quarterly_all_forms_fy2025_q3.xlsx

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