Elon Drops Moon-First Bombshell + Starship Flight 12 Closer Than Ever

Transcript [Part 1]
Booster 19 has been crushing its cryogenic proof test campaign at Massy's this week, holding strong and allowing SpaceX to keep their sights firmly set on flight 12. Meanwhile, stacking operations are well underway on both the booster and ship sides of the flight 13 equation. We have also seen a massive launch site expansion being laid out this week, aiming to greatly enhance capabilities at the launch site. So much so that our Starbase fuel team went airborne this week to get an aerial perspective on what's to come. Also, has SpaceX given up on Mars? From Florida Space Coast to South Texas, we have all of this coming up and more on this week's Starship Update.

It's honestly pretty refreshing to start here by being able to talk about flight vehicle testing because, man, it's been a minute. As we discussed last week, booster 19 rolled out to Massie to begin its pre-flight testing campaign. It all starts on the thrust simulator stand, which simulates Raptor engine forces against the aft without any engines being installed. Once hardware is stationed there, SpaceX has the option of including ambient pressure tests or high pressures at ambient temperatures without the presence of cryogenics, formerly known as pneumatic testing.

This is unfortunately where we lost booster 18. Booster 19's first test appeared to be just this. Venting and pressure release without frost was observed, indicating non-cryogenic pressurization. Afterwards, crews removed part of an aerodynamic shine holding COPVs or composite overwrapped pressure vessels. They serve several vital roles on the vehicle, including but not limited to regulating tank pressurization, relighting engines, etc. Now, this was notable and somewhat concerning as booster 18's accident seems to have originated from a similar area during this phase of testing, but this seems to only suggest extra caution here with booster 19. And rightly so, SpaceX cannot afford to have version 3 begin its life like version 2 did given what's on the line now with NASA and its HLS commitments.

Up next in the campaign was the full-on cryogenic tests using liquid nitrogen and oxygen. Previous gen boosters often tested one tank at a time due to the then limited tank farm capacity limits. A day after the first ambient pressure test was observed, booster 19 underwent and seemingly aced its first partial tanking test, detanking shortly after. Promising. Fast forward to the following day, Massie's tank farm spooled up once again, but not for S39.1, which is still there by the way, but for booster 19's second and full cry load lasting hours on end. I mean, look at this thing covered in frost. It's gorgeous. Given how new version 3 still is, we assumed SpaceX would be conducting multiple tests to verify flight hardware readiness. So, when the farmer spooled up for the third day in a row, we weren't surprised at all. B19 dawned at COD of Frost for the third time with multiple and intense venting periods toward the end. I mean, seriously, it's like this thing is showing off or something. And it's also the old cliché meme, "Oh, we get it, you vape." The exact purpose of these was unknown, however. Hours later, we observe depress venting, signaling the end of round three testing. And spoiler alert, in the very early morning hours of Monday, booster 19 departed Masses and headed back home into Mega Bay 1.

Here, SpaceX teams will fit it with 33 Raptor 3 engines before rolling the booster to pad 2 for the very first time for its static fire test campaign. It's kind of wild that we're almost there, actually. Masses is built to support more than just booster testing, though. Ships themselves are both cryotested and static fired here as well. However, the area has been under renovations for quite some time now. Ever since ship 36 decided to pull a temper tantrum and well disassemble itself, SpaceX has been taking the time to repair, reinforce, and upgrade the tank farm in static fire areas for version 3 ships and beyond.

In recent months, a beefier gantry design has taken shape, which supports fuel equipment for static fire testing, now featuring the new ship quick disconnect interface for block 3 starships. A new concrete bunker has also been added to the site here to shield GSSE from potential shock waves, debris during said testing, or in worst case, a scenario like ship 36. Back at the gantry, a new mystery trust structure continues to taunt us because we still aren't quite sure of its intended purpose yet. We'll have to wait to find out more.

Masses is receiving upgrades in other areas as well, including the likes of the brand new COPV testing area that SpaceX built to rigorously test incoming articles, hopefully addressing potential shipping and handling issues that may have bitten them in the past. This setup allows for pre-installation checks, minimizing risk and hopefully preventing further vehicle losses, having already claimed two at this point, and leading to significant campaign delays.

Over on the methane side of the tank farm, a new blast wall is now in place, displaying SpaceX's commitment to damage prevention in worst case scenarios. In the deluge area, a new tank has also appeared here. Its purpose is still unclear, but recent deluge tests left visible discoloration from pressurization, indicating significant use. For the liquid oxygen side, two new pumps were installed this week with two more staged for installation, hopefully soon, which would complete this side until further expansion is required. Nearby, two additional subcoolers await installation alongside those currently in place, which have supported ship 39.1 and booster 19 testing by chilling propellants down to well below their boiling points.

Multiple tanks have also rolled to Masses and remain staged. For now, it's unclear if they're meant for some site expansion or launch tank farm storage, but we'll of course be watching. With the recent anomaly on SpaceX's Block 3 booster forward test article, booster 18.3, the company held off on immediate scrapping since it posted no ongoing risk to operations there. Recently though, they've straight up cut it in half, rolling the upper section back to Starfactory for potential analysis and/or scrapping. The lower common dome section, which took the brunt of the damage, will likely be scrapped and disposed of right at Massie's.

Over at the other block 3 booster test article, also known as booster 18.1, testing seems to have been completed. We haven't observed any sort of crowd testing here since mid-January. SpaceX appears set to remove it from the can crusher, having pulled the load cap off already, marking the end for this long-serving test tank. Long live the test tanks. The remaining test article at Massie's happens to be ship 39.1, which is currently sitting idle at the ship cryostation. It doesn't seem like it's going to be seeing any testing for now, as the main focus was shifted towards booster 19's test campaign.

Moving down Highway 4 towards the production site, the Sanchez lot serves as a storage and scrapping area along with assembling workstands, transport stands, and workstations. Starting off with potential test structures, the two cylinders that arrived a few weeks ago are now stacked, possibly relating to a ring structure close by here. We're unsure of their purpose or destination for now, booster, ship, or test article related, but they're intriguing nonetheless. Nearby, three smaller pieces resemble super heavy grid fin structures. We can't confirm yet, but they might tie into grid fin testing for vehicles or actual test articles at some point.

Transcript [Part 2]
Now, on the topic of boosters, the transport stand BTR2 is being modified for version 3 fitment. Upgrades accommodate redesigned clamps, shifting from gripping a skirt lip to now slotting into 20 radial holes for greater stability. Launch mounts have evolved as well, mind you, with the testing jig ibofin verifying changes with pad 2's new design. We now find it back at Sanchez and it would seem kind of appropriate to find it at some point taking a vacation to Florida Space Coast for fit checks at LC 39A and eventually Space Launch Complex 37.

Regarding ships, teams are currently assembling improved transport stands with a revamped design compared to what we have become used to. Compare this new one to ship 20 on the old style stand. As of a recent flyover, one is complete with a second and third not far behind their progression. That's a lot of ship transport stands. Both static fire stands are also here at Sanchez. Yes, both. The old one is next to Mega Bay 2, having survived ship 36's anomaly and is currently undergoing repairs for reactivation, while the new one is along Remedios Avenue and is ready for outfitting with clamps, supports, hoists, walkways, rails, and engine chill plumbing. Completion shouldn't be too far away.

Beside the new stand, a three-arm structure is sparking theories perhaps for accessing the ship thrust puck section without the thrust simulator attached. More development is needed to confirm though as it's pure speculation for now. Regarding transportation needs, SpaceX received wider self-propelled module transporters or SPMTs. From what we can see, these can either be towed or moved like we're used to. This, I guess, could expand the acronym to self-propelled module trailer. Maybe it's time for another acronym video.

Now, for some destruction. Sanchez's scrapyard isn't exactly bustling right now, but booster 18's remains linger: the integrated hot staging ring and a now slim aft section. While the anomaly was unfortunate, it is kind of a rare treat to see internal plumbing of any kind. With Sanchez now covered, let's go ahead and check in on future flight vehicles. With flight 12 vehicles now deep in testing or awaiting further data, SpaceX isn't exactly slowing down. Just after booster 19 rolled out, components for the next ship in line, ship 40, rolled out to Mega Bay 2.

In recent weeks, teams stowed and secured ship 40's forward flaps in preparation. After rolling into Mega Bay 2, we couldn't see much more sadly, but we know that this is where the PEZ dispenser will be installed for future version 3 Starlink deployments. A day later, the forward section followed suit, necessary for the next steps in vehicle stacking. Like previous ships, SpaceX will double lift the sections using internal straps to position them on the turntable for welding and integration and other required work. Next should be the common dome section or the tank divider which will also eventually receive the double lift treatment but we have yet to see it so far.

On the booster side for flight 13, booster 20 is making steady progress though our cameras haven't caught much because of the pesky mega bay doors. The aft 2 sections in common dome have already rolled out. Unlike the fast pace on booster 19, pace here is slower with few crews assigned which is what we thought would happen given how lofty the stacking timeline goal was for booster 19. How long do you think it'll take for ship 40 and booster 20 to finish stacking now? Let us know in the comments section down below. Actually, speaking of stacking, all of the hardware that we had just talked about comes from inside the Star Factory where SpaceX fabricates and assembles critical hardware for flight. With ship 40 now vacating its spot, let's take a quick look at the ships still being actively worked on inside. Ship 41 has seen little movement since its recent COPV installation and is currently slated for flight 14, which could showcase the very first ship catch attempt depending on the results of the next two flights. Ship 42 has also received extensive tile work and recently had its forward flaps installed.

These are critical components for control and orientation during re-entry and descent on flight 15, as we expect for now, hopefully guiding it towards a set of open and welcoming chopstick arms. Next is ship 43 targeted for flight 16. Its exact role, perhaps version 3 strong deployment or further system testing in orbit, remains to be seen. At the moment, it's a bare nose cone with both header tanks installed, waiting for a free stand to begin tile pin installation, which is needed for its thermal protection system, ablative and tiles alike.

The mystery ship, ship 44, hasn't been seen since September. We're still unsure of its status or even its true identity. It isn't often that we have a mystery of this scale in Starbase. So, if you have any theories, feel free to let us know in the comments down below.

Ship 45, lined up for flight 17, also has both header tanks installed and appears to be helping calibrate the new robotic tile pin stand. Ship 46, assigned to flight 18, is the most bare nose cone so far, missing its second header tank and waiting patiently for further hardware installation. The last two are half-nose cones, ship 47 and ship 48. They're sitting on stands awaiting more work, and they could fly on flights 19 and 20 respectively or later, depending on when ship reuse actually becomes reality. Hopefully sooner than later.

Stepping away from ships, the upper half of the failed B18.3 test article was cleanly cut and rolled back into the Star Factory. Since it sustained minimal damage, it may be reused for a future test article paired with a new common dome section. And that's the latest from inside Staractory. Production is clearly gaining momentum as it needs to in order to make the targeted flight cadence that the company needs.

We also took to the skies this week to gain a better vantage point on how things are progressing elsewhere in Starbase. And we can clearly see the Gigabay continuing to rise at an impressive pace here. Since our last flight, SpaceX has pushed the structure from roughly level one at about 20 m in height all the way to level three, now standing around 60 m tall, nearly the height of a Gen 2 Superheavy booster. We expect them to keep going until it reaches the full five levels and a bit beyond, topping out near 116 meters in height, all in.

We've seen that crews have already spanned temporary bridges across the work cells to make movement between the areas easier during construction. These should be removed later once they're no longer needed. In the lower sections, they've started painting the structure white, perhaps matching the aesthetic of its Twin Gigabay structure in Florida. The rest of the beams and framework should follow suit soon.

The four tower cranes have also grown as rapidly as the building itself and will keep rising as construction advances. It has been super fascinating to see a machine that builds other things building itself in a way. It's kind of neat.

Here on the Space Coast, the Gigabay over at Robert's Road is currently taller on one side like it always has been so far, possibly a deliberate choice to support early Starship operations at launch complex 39A, potentially for future vehicle storage, as there is currently no Star Factory yet built here, which is what's needed for vehicle assembly. The initial plans for launch operations here require vehicles to be barged in from Starbase, hence the probable need for storage.

You can track all this progress yourself as well with our Space Coast live 24/7 cameras right here on YouTube. Now, compared to that in Starbase, where its height is much more uniform on both sides, we should see level four work begin soon about bringing it in line with Florida's current progress.

Transcript [Part 3]
Time for our McGregor Minute. This week has been packed with Raptor 3 activity. A departure from our reports last week where testing had almost come to a halt. Our 247 cameras caught four fresh Raptor 3 engines leaving the site. Confirmed serial numbers 101, 102, and 110, with the fourth also in the 110s range. But we couldn't exactly get a clear enough visual for the exact number. These are the highest production numbers that we have seen yet, which is a promising sign as operations progress towards the version 3 era.

Overall, this means that there are enough sealed Raptor 3s, not including any possible RUDs and vacuum variants, to fully outfit three complete Starship stacks. Yeah, three. For perspective, the very first Raptor 3 fired on August 8th, 2024. As of the time of this recording, that's roughly 550 days ago, working out to about one Raptor every 5 days.

Elsewhere on site, a new test article has been drawing attention. Based on its structure and diameter, we believe it is for the next generation booster propellant transfer tube. The white protective shell has been on and off of it all week, which unfortunately obscures most of the actual testing and, of course, our views of it. These kinds of test articles are critical for validating hardware under tightly controlled conditions before they fly.

Now coming back to our flyover, the launch site is currently undergoing major changes and expansion. SpaceX has now received approval for another launch site expansion southward. This one even larger than that which created pad 2 in the first place. Work began perhaps earlier than we expected, with boundaries set up and preliminary preparation on the ground already underway.

The approved layout permit includes an expanded tank farm, two LG facilities, a liquid methane generation plant, a new water deluge farm, additional and various ground support equipment, and two staging pads. In preparation for creating the groundwork here, SpaceX must complete a five-layer foundation. They must remove vegetation, import sand, install polypropylene geogrid for soil stabilization, lay compacted limestone, and finish with a 4,000 PSI compressed concrete slab. When complete, the launch site will be nearly twice its current size.

New tanks have already arrived in the former methane oxygen vent and recondenser area. We suspect that these are additional methane tanks to address the current shortfall needed for supporting two pads simultaneously. Across the tank farm, all new vaporizers are now installed along with the final liquid methane pump, completing the pump setup. Though some may be adjusted after testing and early pad 2 flight operations, as this is all still very new hardware.

And speaking of pad 2, all 20 hold down arm hoods are installed and the clamps were actually retracted during the flyover, likely to verify proper sealing and movement. We also spotted what appears to be sensors on top of the booster quick disconnect hoods. These could be for initial booster alignment on the new pad, something we expected, though it's unclear if they'll remain present for every stack. It'll be a far smoother and faster process down the line once operations pick up and teams gain experience working with version 3 vehicles.

Over at pad 1, heavy machinery and CFI piling rigs have been very busy as seen from Starbase Live. The flyover shows that they have broken through the old orbital launch mount pile cap and are preparing to install sheet piles for the brand new flame trench, which will mirror pad 2's design and that of launch complex 39A here in Florida.

Finally, on Friday, SpaceX manually moved the pad 1 chopsticks, most likely to clear the way for continued groundwork, though we have no way to officially confirm. But all things considered, given our observations, it makes total sense.

Just across from the launch site, the air separation unit continues to rise quickly. This week, teams installed a large cold box that arrived from the port on Monday. As of the flyover, the crane was still attached. Since our last look, air compressors, motors, various modules, and two vertical tanks have all been added to the site. This facility is key for Starbase as it is the vital component for supporting multiple Starship launch attempts so closely together as SpaceX is eventually aiming to, but we'll cover that more in detail in a future episode.

Transcript [Part 4]
Now, it feels like there is a giant elephant in the room just like right over my right shoulder and is begging to be addressed right now. So, has SpaceX given up on Mars? Well, the simple answer is no. Of course, they haven't. But there has been a massive shift in their trajectory here, at least for the rest of the decade. Because right before recording this, Elon Musk himself confirmed some rumors going around that SpaceX was shifting its immediate focus away from Mars colonization and towards quote building a self-growing city on the moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20 plus years.

He then went on to list all of the near-term benefits of such a change and how that would play into the company's long-term goals of colonizing Mars with much more flexible launch windows and overall travel time. Now, this may or may not come as a shock to some people, but when you break it down, it makes total sense. SpaceX is embedded into NASA's Artemis program with their human landing system contract, supplying a Starship lunar lander for Artemis 3 in 2028. Well, hopefully 2028, given their contracted deliverables, the fact that it's already February of 2026, and the current presidential administration's stated goal of getting back to the moon before China at the end of the decade and stay there, SpaceX has every reason to be shifting their priorities here to ensure that these goals have the best possible chances of being met with success.

If we can't figure out how to live and work on the moon, then our chances of living and working on Mars are quite slim. I hate to say it. That being said though, versions of Starship are being designed and built to support long-term human space flight. That's a moth. Versions of Starship are being designed and built to support long-term human space flight. So, its architecture will suffice for both purposes here when their respective times come.

Now, putting all of this together, like this entire episode, this is exactly why getting version 3 of Starship up and running is imperative if we really are serious about getting back to the moon in the near future. But in any case here, it certainly has not been a slow week this time over in Starbase, and we fully expect the pace to keep picking up as operations progress towards the greatly anticipated return to flight of Starship, Flight 12. And as always, we are incredibly excited to see what SpaceX has in store.

Let me hear some of your hot takes actually, when do you expect Booster 19 to be ready for a static firing? And critically, what are your thoughts on Elon's recent announcement of the moon taking priority over Mars right now with SpaceX? Do you agree? Do you disagree? Did you see it coming? Feel free to let us know in the comments section down below.

I'm Max Evans for NSF.

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