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Why Russia Won’t Agree to Peace Without Ukraine’s ‘Fortress Belt’
YouTube ^ | December 9, 2025 | Alex Krainer

Posted on 12/09/2025 6:54:13 PM PST by House Atreides

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This analysis is one of the best I’ve come across for a good understanding of the developing ‘end game’ of the “brother’s war” in Ukraine. IMHO, it’s well worth taking 15 minutes of your time to flesh out your understanding of this bloody war.
1 posted on 12/09/2025 6:54:13 PM PST by House Atreides
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To: House Atreides

Hitler wanted the Sudentland because the hilly/mountainous barrier along German border was a hindrance to invasion later in 1938. Bismarck wanted Alsace because it put Germany west of the Rhine and this gave the German an advantage in WW1.
In these cases there was justification on the basis of ethnicity in these border regions. However, the loss of territory became an existential threat to the country that lost the territory.


2 posted on 12/09/2025 7:10:30 PM PST by grumpygresh
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To: House Atreides

Let me guess: Unless Ukraine surrenders the Fortress Belt, Russia won’t be able to conquer the rest of Ukraine as easily?


3 posted on 12/09/2025 7:19:46 PM PST by Engraved-on-His-hands (If someone says that there are no absolutes, ask them if they are absolutely sure.)
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To: House Atreides

Many are asking why is Zelenskyy being so stubborn as to not give up the rest of Donbas. I ask why is Putin being so stubborn as to demanding it? Why is what he has already taken not enough?


4 posted on 12/09/2025 7:24:29 PM PST by Petrosius
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To: Petrosius

Most hardliners in Putin’s party do not think that’s enough at all. In fact, their expectation is they will get at least half by the time things are done, with Kiev as some sort of neutral city and no longer the capital.


5 posted on 12/09/2025 7:34:57 PM PST by Owen
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To: Owen

Their expectation was also that Ukraine would fold in three days.


6 posted on 12/09/2025 7:36:05 PM PST by Petrosius
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To: House Atreides

It’s not complicated. In a few years, Russia will start another war with Ukraine, and idiots on FR will make excuses for Russia. Again. Because Russians are russian, and idiots are idiotic.


7 posted on 12/09/2025 7:36:45 PM PST by NorthMountain (... the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed)
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To: House Atreides; grumpygresh; Petrosius; BroJoeK; Engraved-on-His-hands; PIF; dennisw; gleeaikin; ...

The guy in the video says Russia is “fighting for its survival,” and that’s why it keeps bleeding out its young generation in its senseless, criminal terror war against Ukraine.

Let’s do basic reality checks.

Ukraine is roughly thirty times smaller than Russia. Thirty.
Ukraine has no nuclear weapons. They gave all of them to Russia as part of a security agreement.

So tell me.
How exactly is Ukraine an existential threat to the largest country on Earth armed with the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal?

It isn’t.

The only problem here is the rapist.
Not the one being raped.

The modern leftist habit of bending over backward to rationalize criminals while sneering at the victim isn’t progressive or compassionate. It’s moral rot. And that is exactly what’s happening right now: Russia is raping Ukraine in real time while people debate whether the victim somehow “provoked” it.

Russia has spent centuries doing the same thing. Invading neighbors is their tradition. Lately:

Georgia.
Donbas.
Crimea.
Then the full invasion aimed at Kyiv.

And they know threaten Poland, the Baltic States and even America! - which prompted Trump to scramble a US nuclear submarine towards Russia.

In Ukraine Russia failed. Miserably. Russian troops were humiliated and slaughtered. Ukraine pushed them back and reclaimed roughly half of the territory Russia initially seized. A historic defeat for Putin.

So now he throws more bodies into the furnace.

Russian conscripts.
Communist North Koreans.
Islamist Chechen troops.

A multinational pile-up against one smaller country and still they can’t fully occupy even four Ukrainian oblasts.

One against thirty.

Ukrainians have become the new Vikings. People fighting with almost mythic courage to protect their homes, families, and future against an empire that refuses to admit it’s weak.

Meanwhile Russia keeps torching its own youth for a gangster cause: land theft, looting, slaughter, and the industrial kidnapping of Ukrainian children for forced “re-education.”

State-sanctioned child abuse disguised as geopolitics.

And for the record, the Trump administration recently voted against Russia at the UN, demanding an end to those kidnappings and abuses.
Because even in a world drowning in excuses, some lines are still clear:

Invaders aren’t victims.
Rapists aren’t misunderstood.
And Ukraine didn’t start this war.

They’re surviving it.


8 posted on 12/09/2025 7:39:10 PM PST by USA-FRANCE (Silence against evil isn't neutrality, it's complicity. Oppose the Iran-Russia-North Korea Alliance!)
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To: House Atreides
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-9-2025/


9 posted on 12/09/2025 7:40:01 PM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: House Atreides

WIKI

The 2014 Ukrainian revolution for the most part passed Sloviansk by, with no large-scale gatherings or events in the city, and polls showing people in the east of Ukraine to be largely opposed to the Maidan movement in Kyiv. However, Sloviansk would quickly become the epicentre of events following the fallout of the revolution....

Initially, the pro-Russia rebels enjoyed strong support, with the New York Times reporting: “Thousands of residents thronged a large square in front of City Hall to welcome the pro-Russian putsch, chanting “Russia, Russia” and posing for photographs with gunmen they hailed as their saviors from the fascists who had seized power in Kiev with the February ouster of President Victor F. Yanukovych, a Russian-speaker from Donetsk.”

Konstantin Batozsky, an aide to the Kyiv-appointed governor of the Donetsk region, which included Sloviansk, stated of the people of Sloviansk: “They are happy to welcome whoever gives them food.”

According to the 2001 Ukrainian Census:

Ethnicity
Ukrainians 104,423 73.1%
Russians 33,649 23.6%
Turks 829 0.6%
Belarusians 766 0.5%
Armenians 592 0.4%
Greeks 320 0.2%
Roma people 279 0.2%
Azerbaijanis 208 0.1%
Total 2001 population: 141,066

An April 2023 profile of Sloviansk by the Financial Times described the city as being like a ‘ghost town’, with mayor Vadym Lyakh having given an order to evacuate. The population of Sloviansk at this time was estimated at 40–50,000, up from 2022’s estimate of 24,000, but significantly down from the pre-Russian invasion population of over 100,000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sloviansk


10 posted on 12/09/2025 7:49:23 PM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: Petrosius

Without USA arms Ukraine would have folded in 3 hours.


11 posted on 12/09/2025 7:57:24 PM PST by Bobbyvotes (Work is worship! .... Bhagavad Geeta)
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To: USA-FRANCE

Abolishment of Ukraine would improve corruption levels in Europe.


12 posted on 12/09/2025 8:00:00 PM PST by Bobbyvotes (Work is worship! .... Bhagavad Geeta)
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To: House Atreides

WIKI

On 12 April 2014, at the same time as events in nearby Sloviansk, the police station in Kramatorsk was seized by armed pro-Russian militants in military uniform, and later the city council was too. Kramatorsk remained under pro-Russian separatist control, until July 2014. There would be a series of incidents in those three months. Located only 13 km from Sloviansk, which became a separatist stronghold, Kramatorsk would also be under separatist control, yet in a different situation. Unlike Sloviansk, which had high profile figures Vyacheslav Ponomarev and Igor Girkin/Strelkov associated with it, Kramatorsk was not notable in this sphere. Further, while the Ukrainian army did not enter Sloviansk in its months under separatist control, they made several entries into Kramatorsk in this time. On 5 July, after almost three months, Ukrainian forces finally retook control of Kramatorsk, as part of sweeping territorial gains at that time, including nearby Sloviansk. In October 2014, Kramatorsk was made the provisional administrative center of Donetsk Oblast after the administration relocated from Mariupol. On 10 February 2015, Kramatorsk was shelled by pro-Russian forces, leaving 17 people dead and 60 injured.

On 8 April 2022, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kramatorsk was subjected to missile strikes. The Kramatorsk railway station was hit by Tochka-U missiles which killed at least 57 people and wounded at least 109 others. Pavlo Kyrylenko, the governor of the Donetsk Oblast, said thousands of people had been at the station at the time the two missiles struck. On 19 April 2022, Russian troops launched rocket attacks on Kramatorsk, as a result of which one person was killed and three were injured. On 21 April 2022, British Defence Ministry intelligence reported that Russian troops in the Donetsk Oblast were advancing towards Kramatorsk. However, in early September 2022, Ukraine launched a major counteroffensive, regaining several settlements in the Kharkiv Oblast.

The Kramatorsk metro area is located in Kramatorsk Raion, making it a central part of a major urban agglomeration with over 500,000 inhabitants.

Kramatorsk has a population of over 164,700 inhabitants (2013) and has a metropolitan area of over 197,000 inhabitants (2013). Ukrainians are by far the largest ethnic group, yet the city is mostly Russophone.

Ethnicity
Ukrainians: 70.2%
Russians: 26.9%
Belarusians: 0.7%
Armenians: 0.6%
Azerbaijanis: 0.2%
Jews: 0.1%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kramatorsk


13 posted on 12/09/2025 8:17:29 PM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: Bobbyvotes

“Without USA arms Ukraine would have folded in 3 hours.”

In 2025, Ukraine was probably the 4th largest arms producer in the world.

I suspect Russia might have taken out key ammo plants or their electric power as this would cause broad weakening of Ukrainian lines.


14 posted on 12/09/2025 8:19:52 PM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: House Atreides

I see that reality has still not intruded for some.


15 posted on 12/09/2025 8:25:23 PM PST by SaxxonWoods (Annnd....TRUMP IS RIGHT AGAIN.)
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To: House Atreides
Looking into this, at Alex Krainer Official, there is something funny here. Click on a few videos and watch for the first few minutes.

A person is talking for 10 to 20 minutes straight, same body or hand posture, and no one is prompting them for anything. Same repetitive comments, same format, same cliche statements.

Also, everything he says, has been said before by many others over the last few years, these are not unique insights.

This looks like a fake AI spam channel.

16 posted on 12/09/2025 8:32:24 PM PST by Widget Jr
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To: Petrosius

Many are asking why is Zelenskyy being so stubborn as to not give up the rest of Donbas. I ask why is Putin being so stubborn as to demanding it? Why is what he has already taken not enough?

**********************

The current lines are unsatisfactory to both the Ukrainian & Russian governments.

So the war will continue.


17 posted on 12/09/2025 8:51:06 PM PST by unclebankster (Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel. )
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To: Engraved-on-His-hands; Petrosius; USA-FRANCE; Brian Griffin

This is a fake AI video from a AI spam channel.


18 posted on 12/09/2025 9:06:38 PM PST by Widget Jr
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To: Widget Jr

He is a real person. Not a robot.
_
_
_

Alex Krainer (also known as Sasha Krainer) is a Croatian-born market analyst, author, trader, and former hedge fund manager specializing in commodities, trend-following strategies, and geopolitical economic analysis. He has over 25 years of experience in financial markets, starting his career in 1996.BackgroundBorn and raised in the socialist regime of former Yugoslavia under communist rule, Krainer emigrated to the West in the early 1990s.

He founded Krainer Analytics, a firm focused on market research and trading systems, and developed the I-System Trend Following methodology, which emphasizes systematic trading approaches. He has managed hedge funds and worked as a researcher, often critiquing mainstream financial narratives.Career and ExpertiseKrainer is renowned for his contrarian views on global economics, often linking market trends to geopolitics. He frequently appears on platforms like YouTube and podcasts to discuss topics such as:The economic fallout from conflicts like the Ukraine war and NATO’s role.

Commodities trading, including bold predictions like gold reaching $12,000 per ounce amid de-dollarization.
Europe’s militarization and its role in accelerating economic decline.
Critiques of U.S. foreign policy, such as Iran’s potential as a “graveyard” for the American empire.

His analysis often challenges Western establishment views, drawing from his Eastern European roots and independent research.


19 posted on 12/09/2025 10:13:00 PM PST by dennisw (There is no limit to human stupidity / )
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To: dennisw
Alex Krainer is a real person. I said the YouTube channel claiming to be his is a fake spamming AI videos.

Watch this video that is supposedly features Jeffrey Sachs, Russian Aircraft In Action...Prof Jeffrey Sa.

Sachs dos not talk for 20 minutes straight like that, without a pause, saying "um", "er", etc. That is a AI video mash up of Sachs talking about Venezuela.

20 posted on 12/09/2025 10:50:40 PM PST by Widget Jr
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