Russia occupies most of the Donbas, Luhansk, and Crimea NOW. Why would a peace deal make it MORE likely that Russia would build threatening military bases? They can already build any sort of bases there that they please.
Wrong. Russia has been unable to take the Ukrainian fortress city line in Western Donbas. Once you give it to them they have an open plain into much of the rest of Ukraine.
And Russia wants to veto any defense of Ukraine.
With the Russians now saying Ukraine really won’t have any security guarantee, there never was a serious offer.
The only thing Russia will respond to is a serious military threat. If you can produce that with sanctions, great. But that’s just reality.
When Trump says the war wouldn’t have happened when he was president, he means that he wouldn’t have tolerated it. But now we are tolerating it, so ....
… but right now they blow up real good.