The Iranians in power now know that:
1.) We don't have any problems doing this again if they restart their nuke program.
2.) They can build and build with the knowledge that they could be squished like bugs at any instant. Forevermore buried in the dark under tons of rock. Never to be found again. Kind of takes the fun out of working as a nuclear scientist in their cavernous labs, a mile underground.
3.) There's a Sisyphus factor involved; we have kind of taken all the fun out of them as a people and nation, building their rah-rah nukes.
4.) Plus their MO is to do cowardly surprise attacks on soft targets, using non-nukes. The whole world hates their guts for doing this for the past 50 years. They really don't gain much by changing tactics and insisting on having nukes.
5.) MAD is still the operative doctrine in force on planet Earth, and it has proven itself for 80 years. Nobody wants to use nukes because they in turn will get nuked by the rest of the world. Plus they will have to listen to the whining tree-huggers for decades. This applies to Iran too.
Disagree!
Since its a religious motivation all setbacks can be assigned to “Divine Will”. Someone did something sinful so they’re all to be punished, Allah is testing them, etc. Remember they’re true believing 12’er Shia all actions taken are necessary to bring the 12th Inman into the world. (Supposedly he’s in occultation in Qom!) You can not apply Western notions of rational actors to this. Poly Sci Game Theory does not work! I think Trump is doing that and its a classic mistake that all make when dealing with Islamic fanaticism.