I don’t think the Zeldin race was that close at 6.4% but certainly closer that one would expect in NYS. That being said, even given a dead NYS GOP organization, it is possible for Elise to beat AOC statewide, but everything would have to line up to overcome the severe disorganization of the state GOP party.
When Pataki ran the state party was in much better shape.
Hundreds of thousands New Yorkers moved to Florida, many of them Republican.
As a result, it made New York bluer.