How much manipulation in silver’s price can now be identified?

Identifying the exact extent of manipulation in silver’s price is challenging because it involves a mix of verifiable data, allegations, and market dynamics that are not fully transparent. However, based on available evidence, expert analyses, and historical cases, we can outline some key areas where manipulation has been identified and discuss how much it might influence silver prices as of February 22, 2025.

Historical Legal Cases: JPMorgan Chase (2020): JPMorgan paid a $920 million fine after admitting to “spoofing” in the silver and gold futures markets from 2008 to 2016. Spoofing involves placing large fake orders to manipulate prices, then canceling them. This case confirmed that a major player artificially influenced silver prices, though the exact impact on price levels is hard to quantify. Deutsche Bank (2016): Paid $38 million to settle silver price-fixing claims, suggesting coordinated efforts to suppress prices. Other banks, like HSBC and UBS, have faced similar allegations, pointing to a pattern among bullion banks. These cases show manipulation occurred, but they cover specific periods and tactics, not a continuous, measurable effect. Futures Market Discrepancies: The silver futures market, particularly on the COMEX, trades vastly more “paper silver” than physical silver exists. For example, posts on X and analyses note daily trading volumes of 384 million to 527 million ounces in 2024, compared to annual global production of around 800-850 million ounces. This suggests a ratio of paper to physical silver as high as 100:1 or more, allowing price suppression through oversupply of contracts not backed by metal. Critics argue this disconnect keeps prices below what supply and demand fundamentals would dictate, though no precise dollar amount of suppression is universally agreed upon. Physical Demand vs. Price: Silver has been in a supply deficit for several years (e.g., four years as of early 2025 per X posts), with industrial use (like solar panels) and investment demand rising. Yet, prices remain relatively low—around $32.50 per ounce recently—compared to historical highs near $50 (1980, 2011). Analysts like those at The Jerusalem Post and Sprott Money suggest this gap reflects ongoing suppression, potentially by $10-$20 per ounce or more, though this is speculative. Regulatory Findings: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) investigated silver manipulation from 2008 to 2013 but found no “viable basis” for enforcement action at that time. However, later fines and settlements indicate manipulation persists, just not always provable in real-time. Quantifying the Impact

Opaque Markets: The COMEX and London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) lack full transparency on trading positions and physical inventories. Multiple Factors: Prices reflect not just manipulation but also macroeconomic conditions (e.g., interest rates, dollar strength), industrial demand, and investor sentiment. Estimates Vary: Some analysts, like David Morgan, suggest prices could be 50% or more below their “true” value (implying $50+ per ounce today), while others see suppression as more modest, perhaps $5-$10 per ounce, based on historical spoofing impacts and futures leverage. A rough estimate from market observers:

Short-Term Manipulation: Tactics like spoofing or large futures dumps can cause daily or weekly price swings of 5-10% (e.g., $1.50-$3 at current levels), as seen in “morning manipulation slams” noted on X. Long-Term Suppression: If physical shortages and deficits were fully priced in without paper market interference, some argue silver could trade at $40-$100 per ounce, based on gold-to-silver ratios (historically 15:1 to 60:1, now ~90:1) and industrial scarcity. This implies a suppression range of $7.50 to $67.50 per ounce, though the higher end is highly speculative. Current Identification as of February 22, 2025

Confirmed Manipulation: Past legal cases prove manipulation lowered prices during specific periods (e.g., 2008-2016), but current instances are harder to pin down without new convictions. Ongoing Suspicions: High paper-to-physical ratios and price resistance despite deficits strongly suggest continued interference. Posts on X highlight daily volumes dwarfing deliveries (e.g., 437 million ounces traded vs. 269 COMEX deliveries on February 12, 2025), reinforcing this view. Magnitude: Experts and sentiment on platforms like X suggest suppression could range from 20% to over 100% of the current price ($6.50-$32.50+), but no definitive data pegs it precisely. The most conservative, evidence-based estimate might be 10-30% ($3-$10 per ounce), aligning with past spoofing effects and market anomalies. Conclusion

While manipulation in silver’s price is identifiable through legal precedents, futures market distortions, and supply-demand mismatches, its exact scale remains elusive. As of February 22, 2025, the best estimate—balancing evidence and skepticism—is that manipulation may suppress prices by $3-$10 per ounce in the short term, with potential for greater long-term effects if systemic issues unravel. However, without real-time transparency or new regulatory action, this remains an educated guess rather than a proven figure. The silver market’s complexity demands ongoing scrutiny to refine these estimates.

“Our US Constitution fixed it at 16:1”

Where did you get that?

From Socrates?

—‐——————

His predictions:

He failed to predict his three bankrupsies.

He failed to predict his losing $700 million of his clients’funds.

He failed to predict he would spend eleven years in the federal pen.

In 2014 he predicted gold would soar to $5,000 in 2015.

In 2014 he predicted that there would be a world financial collapse would occur in 2015.

July 2024 he predicted US cIvil unrest/WAR to happen just before the 2024 elections.

November 2024 he predicted a US civil war would happen the week of Trump’s inauguration with the US breaking up into four new countries in 2026.

December 2024 he said via Socrates that the 2024 elections would be the last in the US. January 2025 he predicted US civil unrest on May 7

I ran that question through GROK:

The idea that JPMorgan suppresses the price of silver stems from a mix of documented legal cases, market observations, and ongoing speculation within the precious metals community. Here’s how it’s alleged to happen, based on what’s known and claimed.

One key mechanism involves the futures market, where JPMorgan has historically held significant positions. Through a practice called “spoofing,” traders place large buy or sell orders with no intention of executing them, creating a false impression of supply or demand. This can trick other market participants into moving prices in a direction that benefits the bank’s real trades. In 2020, JPMorgan paid a record $920 million to settle U.S. federal probes into this kind of manipulation of precious metals futures, including silver, spanning from 2008 to 2016. The settlement confirmed that traders, including senior figures, used spoofing to artificially influence prices, often to profit by buying low or selling high after pushing the market their way. Court documents revealed thousands of such deceptive trades, showing it wasn’t a one-off but a sustained strategy.

Beyond spoofing, some argue JPMorgan suppresses silver prices by maintaining large short positions in silver futures. A short position bets on a price drop, and if a player as big as JPMorgan floods the market with these contracts—especially during low-volume trading hours—it can trigger sharp declines, sometimes called “flash crashes.” Critics say this keeps silver prices below what supply-and-demand fundamentals might otherwise dictate, given its industrial uses and limited physical availability. The bank’s size and influence on exchanges like COMEX, where silver futures are heavily traded, amplify this effect, as the paper market (futures) often overshadows the physical market.

Another angle is JPMorgan’s role as a custodian of silver-backed assets, like the SLV exchange-traded fund. Some investors speculate that the bank could manipulate the reported supply or availability of physical silver in these trusts, decoupling the spot price from actual metal on hand. While there’s no hard proof of this specific claim, the collapsing ratio of silver tonnage to price in SLV—highlighted by observers—fuels suspicion, especially since the bank’s past misconduct is well-documented.

The motive? Theories range from protecting the fiat currency system (by keeping precious metals less appealing) to simply profiting from market distortions. The 2020 settlement showed JPMorgan’s actions gave it an edge, harming other traders and likely netting gains far exceeding the fine. Two former traders, convicted in 2022, were part of a scheme that caused over $10 million in losses to others, hinting at the scale of potential profits.

That said, not everyone buys the suppression narrative fully. Some analysts argue that while spoofing happened, it was about short-term gains, not a grand conspiracy to cap silver prices long-term. They point out silver’s price has risen significantly at times—like from under $11 in 2008 to nearly $50 in 2011—suggesting manipulation isn’t all-powerful. Others note that futures markets naturally involve big players taking opposing positions, not always with sinister intent.

Still, the combination of proven spoofing, hefty short positions, and JPMorgan’s market clout keeps the suppression idea alive. Whether it’s a deliberate cap or just aggressive trading, the bank’s influence on silver pricing is hard to ignore, especially with its history laid bare in court.

Through a practice called “spoofing”

Spoofing could also lead to higher prices, not just lower prices.

Beyond spoofing, some argue JPMorgan suppresses silver prices by maintaining large short positions in silver futures.

Do they argue with evidence that JPMorgan actually has large short positions or do they just feel JPMorgan has large short positions?

A short position bets on a price drop, and if a player as big as JPMorgan floods the market with these contracts—especially during low-volume trading hours—it can trigger sharp declines, sometimes called “flash crashes.”

And when JPMorgan and others rush in to buy at these lower prices, the price may rise higher than it was before.

Some analysts argue that while spoofing happened, it was about short-term gains, not a grand conspiracy to cap silver prices long-term.

No kidding, seconds to minutes, not decades.

Still, the combination of proven spoofing, hefty short positions,

Where do you see actual short positions held by JPMorgan?

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