Posted on 10/11/2024 11:39:17 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
Could Republicans Gain another Senate Seat?
Sorry for past week, had some things going on so I couldn't post. Anyway, it does appear, unsurprisingly to me at least, that polling is clearly indicating Trump with the momentum and clearly taking the lead, and starting to run away with this race. I will go into this in another article, but a more interesting thing is going on in PA, at least for me. I always expected the polls to start to adjust to reality, Kamala had a few months of hiding and finally had to start actually facing the press, and even among mostly friendly press she can't handle it, and is falling apart consistently.
In the PA Senate race I have always felt that McCormick was a big underdog against incumbent Senator Casey. It's not that Casey couldn't be beat, he's honestly never faced a serious challenge to his seat since he was elected. However incumbency and Casey's family name, as well as democrats perennial registration advantage definitely give him the edge generally.
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IS PA one of the states experiencing higher party identity and registration for the Republican party?
yes.
Tim Sheehy is going to take down the long-entrenched Tester in MT.
Dems still have a big advantage, but yes there have been pushes to get more republicans registered...
However, there also have been folks who switch from D to R just to vote in the GOP primary we are a closed primary state.
But yes, however democrats still have a very very heavy registration advantage.
McCormick can only beat incumbent Senator Casey in PA if Trump’s coattails there are huge. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but I’d be pleasantly surprised if it did.
Senate seats in WV and MT seems to be pretty guaranteed picks.
But there are several close seats to be picked - PA, OH, AZ, MI, WI, NV. All pretty close, I think few of them will be successful.
On the other hand, Dems are hoping to unseat Sen Cruz in TX, I would say that’s unlikely, but he also needs help.
MT and WV are given, I expect OH to be a gain as well, we shall see.
Add PA to that, and you hit 53.
You have to remember that the real running in US Senate and House races is in the last 3-4 weeks before election day. I’ve been following politics for around 56 years (the first big election I paid attention to was 1968 when I was 13 years old and in a civics class in junior high school). One particular race I remember was the Georgia US Senate race between incumbent Democrat Herman Talmadge and GOP challenger Mack Mattingly. About a month before the election, Talmadge was up by 30 points in at least one poll. However, on election day, at the same time Reagan won, Mattingly upset Talmadge.
No pollster seems to take a poll asking the respondent: as a Trump voter, are you going to vote for (or against) the GOP candidates for US Senate, US House and your state legislature. Here in Ohio, if Trump does win by 8 or more points, it is hard to see how Sherrod Brown wins (or, for that matter, Emilia Sykes in the Akron area House seat or Marcy Kaptur in the Toledo area House seat).
If Trump wins in PA, watch for McCormick to win and also as many as three House seats to flip (the Scranton area, Lehigh Valley area and SW Pennsylvania districts).
Let's all work for a 1994-type election where Republicans picked up eight democrat Senate seats, a boatload of House seats and, if I remember correctly, ten governorships.
The pundits were surprised as was Mr. Clinton.
I remember that election well. In 1994 you had a whirlwind produced by (1) Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky casting the deciding vote for Clinton’s tax bill; (2) the House bank scandal which took down such powerhouses as Dan Rostenkowski as well as ‘Rat lightweights like Mary Rose Oakar; and (3) a gun bill in the House pushed by the ‘Rats that actually lost on the floor. Plus, the full effects of ‘Rat gerrymandering after the 1990 census became known. Their gerrymandering led to districts that drew in black neighborhoods in multiple cities, like the NC 12th district represented by Melvin Watt and Florida’s 4th district represented by future convicted felon Corrine Brown.
This was also the election of Newt Gingrich’s “Contract With America”, one of the first nationwide coordinated House campaigns, hoping to end 40 years of ‘Rat control of the House.
The Washington Post used to have a state by state election preview written by David S. Broder that appeared the Sunday before election day. By my count, Broder identified 47 districts where Democrats were in trouble, although he made no prediction about who would control the chamber. The GOP ended up netting 54 seats, so the “powers what be” in Washington knew what was happening, but it turned out to be a shockwave across the country when it happened. ABC Evening News anchor Peter Jennings (a Canadian) called it a “temper tantrum”. The person who got the biggest surprise was Rep. Tom Foley from Spokane, Washington, who became the first speaker since 1862 to be defeated for re-election.
As I remember, the only ‘Rat Senate incumbent who lost was James Sasser of Tennesse, he being remembered for pronouncing the word deficit as “dafacit” (he lost to the late Fred Dalton Thompson). The day after the election Sen. Richard Shelby from Alabama crossed the aisle and changed his party from ‘Rat to GOP.
Shelby and also Ben Campbell of CO switched as well. We picked up 2 senate seats with party switches and they weren’t half bad afterwards for being former dems.
As I remember, this was due to a grass roots movement in his district who went by the slogan of "De-Foleyate Congress". LOL!
Michigan and Wisconsin are both within striking distance, and the polling gaps in those races have been steadily shrinking
I was just about to post that, but you beat me. In Fall '92, my next door neighbor Democrat sported a Ben Nighthorse Campbell sign in his yard.
6 years later when Ben was running for re-election as a Republican, I asked him if he still had his '92 yard sign and if I could borrow it.
He laughed! (We got along well)
They are safe IMHO. Trump has the EC locked down
Now he’s running up the score.
One source I looked at said Harris Wofford (D-Pennsylvania) also lost his Senate incumbency.
I don't personally remember the name.
I do remember the Republican beat-down was so bad that within a day or two President Clinton floated the idea in the press that he thinking a constitutional amendment was necessary to get prayer back in the public schools. That lasted about one news cycle never to be heard again from democrats.
Apparently they came up with a different approach to winning elections: cheating.
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