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The Odds Of An Electoral College Tie Are About To Soar, Who Would Win?
Mish Talk ^ | 09/21/2024 | Mike Shedlock

Posted on 09/21/2024 7:13:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

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1 posted on 09/21/2024 7:13:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s gonna be wild to see a 269/269 split where Kamala wins the (meaningless) “national popular vote” by 5 million and the GOP House delegation gives Trump the presidency.


2 posted on 09/21/2024 7:18:58 PM PDT by Drew68
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To: Drew68

But are there Never Trumpers in a few House delegations who would vote with the Dems in their delegation and give Harris the win


3 posted on 09/21/2024 7:22:39 PM PDT by xkaydet65
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To: SeekAndFind

My thought in 2016 was that Trump would win, even though the polls going in said Hillary would win. Several factors were important: 1) Democrat cheating was less pervasive than it was in 2020, 2) people we afraid to admit they were voting for Trump in 2016 and fewer did so in 2020, but voted Trump in the booth. Today, I still think some people won’t admit to voting for Trump, but the Democrat cheating (and, yes, I call registering illegal aliens cheating) persists.


4 posted on 09/21/2024 7:27:08 PM PDT by econjack
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To: SeekAndFind

RATS...the party that always cheats.


5 posted on 09/21/2024 7:49:36 PM PDT by mass55th (“Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway.” ― John Wayne)
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To: xkaydet65
But are there Never Trumpers in a few House delegations who would vote with the Dems in their delegation and give Harris the win

Not enough. He may lose one or two. In the end, he'd win.

Trump has total control over today's GOP.

My point is that if this happens, there will be an absolute shitstorm from the "defend democracy" side.

And it'll be glorious!

6 posted on 09/21/2024 8:29:41 PM PDT by Drew68
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To: SeekAndFind

Kamela proposed another debate.

Her team knows she’s losing.

Trump does not sound like he is going to do another debate.

His team knows he’s winning.

I’ve seen the polls shifting ever more strongly in Trump’s favor. the democrats know this too.

More democrats talking about a close race means that they’re now hoping that the race is close. (because that advantages them.)

but the momentum now is 100 percent team trump.

the gap between now and election day looks like its going to get wider.

And it looks like the polls are going to return the place they were at just before biden dropped out.

Virginia Minnesota and New Hampshire may come back into play.

Four weeks from now New Mexico and New York may come into play.

Kamela is doing nothing to tamp down the surge.

Illegals will play a role in keeping the race closer than it other wise would be and maybe even picking off a red state or two.

but its looking less likely that their role will be decisive—because the trump surge is getting broadening out. that means that trump is gathering more and more ways to win.

that said, its likely a number of states will not have their votes counted by election night. however, judging by what’s shaping up to be a more decisive win by trump—those states totals won’t matter. the race will have already been won.


7 posted on 09/21/2024 8:30:43 PM PDT by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer

Praying what you have described comes to pass.


8 posted on 09/21/2024 8:32:57 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: SeekAndFind

If there is a tie, expect the Democrats to threaten, blackmail or even kill Trump electors in order to scare at least one into switching to Harris.


9 posted on 09/21/2024 8:47:28 PM PDT by KarlInOhio (7/13/2024:The day the Democrats and their SA chose assassination as their primary political tool.)
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To: SeekAndFind

why waste time using Nate Silver projections-just ask President Hillary Clinton


10 posted on 09/21/2024 8:49:36 PM PDT by TECTopcat
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To: Drew68

Don’t assume the house GOP delegation would give Trump the nod. It was GOP votes that let Pelosi conduct her Soviet style show trial.

I know that we are going to send a horrible Republican never Trumper from Colorado to Congress in a hard Republican district. How many more Cheney/Kinzingers are there going to be in the new Congress?

And I know that Merchan is going to sentence Trump after the election and before the House vote would occur. Why do you suppose Merchan set the sentencing hearing for then? I think he did it exactly for the tie contingency and for the fight that will occur in the House and Senate over disqualifying Trump as an insurrectionist under the 14th Amendment.

The Supreme Court in the Colorado case allowed Congress to dq Trump as an insurrectionist. That will be the big fight even if Trump wins the electoral college. An R majority in the House does not come close to guaranteeing a pro-Trump vote in either the tie or the insurrection contingencies.


11 posted on 09/21/2024 8:53:46 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: ModelBreaker
From the article: In the House, each state delegation (not representative) would get one vote, with the presidency going to whoever wins a majority of state delegations. Republicans currently control 26 of the 50 House delegations.

The representatives don’t vote individually, the delegation does.

12 posted on 09/21/2024 9:10:01 PM PDT by Prince of Space (Trump 2024! )
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To: Drew68

My point is that if this happens, there will be an absolute shitstorm from the “defend democracy” side.

And it’ll be glorious!

********************

Lol

The liberal meltdown would be epic.


13 posted on 09/21/2024 9:10:41 PM PDT by unclebankster (Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Time Expires in Maine
Maine, which operates on the same system, have threatened to do the same.

However, time has expired for Maine to make the change.

Time did not expire in Maine. This stupid meme has recently appear based on very false information.

The Maine legislature only meets from December to May in the odd years and January to April in the even years. It would require a bill passed by the legislature in one of those sessions to change the law. Very unlikely to ever happen.

The only article I have seen about changing was an interview with the house assistant majority leader in which she talked about the possibility without pointing out that the legislature had already adjourned for the cycle. There has been no effort made to change the electoral vote process in Maine.


14 posted on 09/21/2024 9:29:48 PM PDT by Steven Scharf
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To: SeekAndFind

Time Expires in Maine
Maine, which operates on the same system, have threatened to do the same.

However, time has expired for Maine to make the change.

Time did not expire in Maine. This stupid meme has recently appear based on very false information.

The Maine legislature only meets from December to May in the odd years and January to April in the even years. It would require a bill passed by the legislature in one of those sessions to change the law. Very unlikely to ever happen.

The only article I have seen about changing was an interview with the house assistant majority leader in which she talked about the possibility without pointing out that the legislature had already adjourned for the cycle. There has been no effort made to change the electoral vote process in Maine.


15 posted on 09/21/2024 9:29:48 PM PDT by Steven Scharf
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To: Steven Scharf

There were all sorts of emergency changes made to election laws during Covid that many said were not legal. It wouldn’t surprise me if Maine could have an emergency session due to “literally Hitler” being on the ballot.


16 posted on 09/21/2024 9:37:34 PM PDT by 21twelve (Ever Vigilant - Never Fearful)
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To: ckilmer
Virginia Minnesota and New Hampshire may come back into play.

Which is important because we may need those stages in order to beat the fraud.

17 posted on 09/21/2024 9:42:30 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: ckilmer

JD Vance was giving a speech in Pennsylvania today. In these small rallies he always gives time for a few questions from the reporters. It was hard to here the questions, but one was about polls - probably that Trump was behind.

Vance said something like “Well - we do our own polling too, and we’re looking good. One of my friends when I was running for Congress... polls had us behind. I called him up - he said ‘JD - I’ve got you winning by 7 points - we’re okay’. And you know what - we won by 7 points. I’m not worried. But that doesn’t mean you don’t need to vote! That is the only poll that matters - vote.”

And then he told the story of a colleague, which JD has now stolen. “I want you to vote 10 times! That’s how we win!!!”
.
.
.
Get you and 9 of your friend out to vote. He also made a great point of doing it early and mailing it in or dropping it in the booth. Things come up. Somebody in the family gets sick, etc. and you forget about it or run out of time. (I know that has happened to me in the mid-election state stuff.)


18 posted on 09/21/2024 9:47:19 PM PDT by 21twelve (Ever Vigilant - Never Fearful)
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To: ModelBreaker

for the fight that will occur in the House and Senate over disqualifying Trump as an insurrectionist under the 14th Amendment.


this is their fallback plan when Trump wins

what are the republicans doing to prepare for this?


19 posted on 09/21/2024 9:50:11 PM PDT by joshua c
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To: ckilmer

I saw a video from Nevada on a CNN(?) reporter that was doing interviews with locals - the clip I saw was at 4 different cafes that seemed normally filled at lunch time.

After CNN showed her conversations with people the reporter said something like “That last guy - he was the only Harris supporter that I found in all of those places. That was shocking.”


20 posted on 09/21/2024 9:50:21 PM PDT by 21twelve (Ever Vigilant - Never Fearful)
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