1. We now know for sure that Biden was behind in the polls. Why? Because the D’s moved him off the ballot. But, looking back, what were the D-polls saying? They were saying the race was close or maybe Biden was ahead.
2. Right now, Harris has “the honeymoon effect” going for her. That she’s going well in the polls is to be expected. It is also to be expected that the afterglow will soon wear off.
3. The Electoral College is tilted a bit in our favor. Trump can lose the popular vote by 2 points and still win. (This actually happened in 2016. He lost the popular vote and still won in the Electoral College.)
4. Trump outperforms the polls. His surprise election in 2016 was specifically due to outperforming the polls in the key states, that year, of MI, PA and WI. He outperformed the polls again in 2020, just not enough to win. He came up a fraction of a point short in GA, and about a point short in each of AZ and WI.
Your post is based on the assumption that 2020 was not stolen.
That is like carefully analyzing the cards in a mob poker game.
Lol.
But, as must be stressed, not outside the margin of fraud.