This sounds like it was written well before today. The October surprise came this last weekend.
Indeed. Sympathy for Trump is going to break him out of that range + many who wouldn’t watch the convention will be watching his speech on Thursday. If he hits it out of the park we’ll see polling in states like NY, NM, ME, and CO seriously wobble, if not outright flip in his favor, while his lead in the battleground will broaden
Yep. Doug Schoen always seems to be a day late and dollar short with his writing. You just want to slap him and say, wake up - you're an old white guy that your Democrat Party left behind 20+ years ago, and they'd as soon toss you out a window then do a thing to help you.