“...in twenty years there will be a handful of tiny countries that DO NOT possess nuclear weapons....”
That was one of the fears that Oppenheimer had. Once the genie was out of the bottle (atomic weapons), every nation on earth could create and possess them (theoretically).
What is to stop Ukraine right this minute, from creating atomic weapons? They have the scientist and the means.
“What is to stop Ukraine right this minute, from creating atomic weapons? They have the scientist and the means.”
You first need the fissile material. Ukraine has that. A reactor uses, from memory, fuel refined to five or so percent purity. And, also from memory, a bomb is made, depending on the element, from 90 percent pure material. Getting from five to 90 is the challenge. It’s not insurmountable. It could be done in a small, one or two bomb set of material, in a lab and probably no one would know. Iran set up a huge and very public capability but that’s only because they are using that capability for political ends. It doesn’t have to be that big or that noticeable for a small number of bombs.
The machineing and material handling for the types of bombs the big boys make is difficult, expensive and requires some exotic capabilities. But, if you only want the type of bombs dropped in Japan, then just banging together two subcritical masses to make one critical mass will do the job nicely. That could be done in the Pakistani outback, any of the Stan countries or any European country.
The delivery mechanism can be anything that can carry the required weight. The US and Soviets had nuclear artillery shells. The Davy Crocket man portable bomb was the size of a small beer keg.
There’s no magic to making nukes. Just about any modern economy can do it. The expense comes in with all the stuff the big boys have added, security, secrecy, handling, disposal, systems to move and deliver, etc. The long-term cost of keeping this stuff usable and secure is a huge expense. But if you feel threatened by a big bully neighbor who publicly states they want to “manage your security policy” meaning run you like they’re the Mafia, then all other considerations are suddenly secondary to having a bomb ready to fly.