Posted on 04/13/2024 8:28:22 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Iran launched a large-scale air attack on Israel using drones and ballistic missiles. It represented the biggest escalation from the Islamic Republic against the Jewish state in history, which has long used proxy militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen to do its dirty work. This is different, and the response from Israel and possibly the United States will be different, with reports circulating that Israel will retaliate against Iran regardless of whether lives are lost in the current attack.
How will all of this unfold? Those with a heavy isolationist bent are already predicting doom and shouting "World War III" at the top of their lungs. Yet, there's every reason to believe that Iran has severely overplayed its hand.
Let's game this out, taking some of the most hysterical suggestions at face value. For example, what are the chances this turns into a "regional war" being fought by multiple state powers against Israel? The answer to that is almost zero. Most of the Arab nations hate the Iranian regime and want to see it falter. Sure enough, instead of offering support to Iran, the Saudis and Jordanians immediately pledged to shoot down any Iranian projectiles and aircraft that violated their airspace.
There is no reason to believe any other nation in the Middle East will join Iran in a hot war against Israel. The Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, one of Iran's only true allies in the region, has no capacity to do anything but hold what territory it still has following its civil war. The rest of the Arab nations are mostly aligned against Iran, even if not explicitly. Yes, they make a lot of noise in Arabic about the Palestinian issue, but that's for domestic consumption. When push comes to shove, they aren't putting their necks on the line for Iran.
So what happens if Israel and Iran engage in a more protracted war? From the jump, we know Israel isn't going to invade Iran nor does Iran have any ability to invade Israel. That means an air war is the only real possibility, and one that Israel would easily win.
Iran's air force is multiple generations behind. We are talking about less than 200 very outdated fighters, with ancient F-14s and Mig-29s being the pinnacle of their technology. American-made F-35s and even older F-15s would have a field day. Does Iran want to engage in such a fight? I tend to doubt it given they know they'd lose everything they have. I bet they want their attack to be the end of this, but Israel may not give them a choice.
That's where Iran has likely overplayed its hand. The Islamic nation could now see many of its most important strategic sites hit, including its nuclear facilities. In return, they can only fling low-tech drones and missiles over at Israel, most of which will never make it through. The status quo of its proxy militias launching largely ineffective attacks will also continue.
Overall, though, Iran could be left significantly weakened after this, with other nations in the region looking to capitalize. This isn't World War III. It's not even a regional conflict at this point, and the combined air power of Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom represents a huge technological advantage over anything Iran can put into the sky. The Islamic Republic has officially pushed too far to try to save face, and they'll now pay the price.
How will all of this unfold?
Obama will abandon Israel and they will be on their own.
World price of oil will skyrocket.
Biden will bad mouth Israel as being the aggressor.
Other leaders of our enemy countries will take advantage.
Here’s a conspiracy theory to consider....
Israel killed those Iranian generals, but...
they did it because the Iranian generals follow the orders by the Ayatollahs, and if they are going to strike at the heart of Israel, then, they are fair game and should be targeted and killed, just like they killed/butchered those 1200 Israelis.
But, the second part of the ‘conspiracy’ from Israel is to get the Iranians to seek retaliation, and then...
the stage would be set for Israels to strike at the Iraniian nuclear sites and oil fields.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
So, Iran knows that they would have a lot more to lose than Israel.
As we all know...
the best defense is a good offense. And Israel has the best defense/offense anywhere in the middle-east.
If most of the a-rab nations in the region hate Iran and want to see it falter why don’t they all get together and take Iran down themselves?
And Iran may in fact have overplayed its hand which will lead to a lot of geopolitical problems which will ultimately conclude with a confederation spanning Russia down through Turkey, Iran and across to North Africa.
Ping
Maybe wait until there’s a damage assessment from tonight’s missile strikes on the Israeli airbases before touting Israel’s air superiority.
Iran saved face, while minimizing the danger of immediate reprisal. Win, win. But it also set a precedent with a direct missile attack, making Israel more willing to do the same to them, eventually. Israeli missiles seem to be much more accurate than theirs.
Because Biden is courting the Religion of Peace vote he probably won’t authorize any US action against Iran. It’s even possible Israel will be cut out of the intelligence loop making targeting more difficult.
The other nations where the US have bases have stated they will not allow the US to launch any actions against Iran from their soil. They want the US presence to protect THEM, not to be used as a geopolitical tool for US power. Any US actions would necessarily come from outside the region and would therefore be very expensive and riskier.
Responses from all players are likely to be asymmetric. Iran smacks Israel, Israel bombs an Iranian proxy. Iran is in an awkward position. They’ve used Israel as a stalking horse* to focus the anger of their populous outside of Iran. Now, they’ve put themselves right in the crosshairs of someone who could destroy them with the press of a button. I’ll bet there are few puckerd butts in Iran waiting to see what Israel does.
* A stalking horse is a term used in politics and idiomatic expressions: It refers to someone or something used to hide a true purpose.
I remember one of the end times movies many years ago, perhaps the “Left Behind” series, where all missiles fired at Israel were destroyed by Divine intervention. I guess they never conceived of the Iron Dome.
Go Israel,
Nuke Iran.
To be fair here, Iran has ordered 24 SU-35s which may or may not have been delivered.
“and they’ll now pay the price”
Bump!
Big Booom!
I’m betting Bibi will respond with quiet, cold, precision. Iran’s mullahs and military strongmen suddenly die of…whatever.
There has to be a certain amount of visibility as Netanyahu is politically wounded. He has to strike out and get credit for doing so. If he does a good job and Israel isn’t wounded by the reaction of the US and the world, he’ll make up for the Oct. seventh fiasco. But the US and the world want him gone. That’s a lot of headwinds to face. He’s good. He’s resilient. But sometimes, like with Winston Churchill, the public just wants a change.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.