Ukraine Weekly Update

DR. ROB CAMPBELL APR 12, 2024 Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi shake hands during a joint press conference following their meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guest House in Beijing, China - Sputnik International, 1920, 10.04.2024 Sergey Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi - Has China agreed to back Russia militarily? This week, Russia has continued to degrade Ukraine’s energy system with some massive drone/missile attacks. Several large power plants have been damaged and some disabled while large underground gas storage facilities have been destroyed. The future of Ukraine’s energy remains uncertain at this time. On the fronts, there has been a noticeable uptick in Russia’s activities and some strategically important Ukrainian towns, such as Chasov Yar, are close to collapse. Reports coming from Ukrainian Telegram Channels are increasingly gloomy (see below) as ammunition and manpower shortages begin to bite, while disillusionment with the Ukraine’s regime is growing. In the Middle East, Iranian retaliation for the Israeli attacks on its embassy in Damascus have not yet materialised while the Israelis are still on the verge of attacking Rafah having pulled many of its troops out of Gaza. The clash between Israel and Hezbollah continues along with Houthis attacks on shipping. Sergey Lavrov visited China this week and it is possible that Xi has now agreed to back Russia militarily in the event of escalation. If this is true, as commentators such as Alexander Mercouris appear to believe, then this could be the most significant event of the week: hence the photo above.

April 10th was also the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Odessa from the NAZIS. During the 907 day occupation of the city, 82,000 of the city’s residents were killed and another 78,000 deported to forced labour camps in Germany. On May 1st 1945, Odessa was declared a ‘hero city’. Now Odessa is waiting for liberation from a modern version of Nazism.

Dmitry on Fire …….. This statement follows the interrogation of Crocus suspects which revealed that they were advised that a path would be cleared for them (including mine clearance) so that they could cross the border safely into Ukraine. A definite connection between the terrorists and the Ukraine intelligence service has been established but Medvedev believes that connections to Western leaders and the terror attacks have also been made.

Russian ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, has responded to the peace initiative hosted by Switzerland which excluded Russia. ‘Very soon’, he said:

…the only topic for any international meetings on Ukraine will be the unconditional surrender of the Kyiv regime. I advise you all to prepare for this in advance.

Maria Zakharova suggested that Russia would not be attending any peace conferences based on the Zelensky model - which ignores reality - and questioned Switzerland’s neutral status, the lack of which disqualifies it from hosting such conferences in relation to the Ukraine conflict.

The Russian Investigative Committee has found evidence that money was channeled through Burisma Holdings (once run by Hunter Biden - so they say) to finance terrorist attacks in Russia and to eliminate Russia’s political opponents outside the country. Other Ukrainian companies, not named, have also been involved, according to RT. The Committee has opened a criminal case under the heading ‘financing terrorism’ that involves US and NATO officials. Could NATO be a terrorist organisation, I wonder! There is also a connection between Hunter Biden and the Biolabs discovered across Ukraine. Of course, sleepy Joe Biden, who secured ‘employment’ at Burisma for his son, also has his paw marks all over this.

Dmitry Lubinets - ‘the people responsible should be punished’. Dmitry Lubinets, Commissioner for Human Rights of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, in an interview with Suspilnye Novosti, said that Kiev is throwing young men into battle without any training. Men are mobilised and sent to the front in just a couple of days whereas they should be trained for at least three months, yet no one is punished, he said.

The once great Z has called for 25 new Patriot systems with 6-8 launchers each. I’d like a Hymer Camper van but it’s never going to happen. The Patriots cost at least $1 billions each. He also admitted that the Ukrainians do not possess sufficient missiles for offensive actions but have enough for defence - which is doubtful. I read somewhere that only 4 of these Patriot systems are produced in a year.

Andriy Yermak, spokesman for Zelensky’s office, has announced that Ukrainians will never compromise with Putin, who, he believes, does not wish to negotiate. This is odd coming from the spokesman of an administration that has outlawed negotiations with Russia. The fact that Ukrainians are staying in Ukraine with their families is testimony to their determination in the face of Russian aggression, even though they are tired of war - he said. But the truth is that people are leaving Ukraine and will continue to do so.

Image result for ukraine nato pig cartoon Ukrainian Telegram channel legitimniy is reporting that the Ukrainian army is suffering a shortage of ammunition which Kiev is unlikely to be able to resolve. But some commentators on Ukrainian channels have also pointed to low morale within the army and an increasing number of ‘leaving positions/surrendering’ especially around Chasov Yar. Others, who now appreciate that the war cannot be won, talk about the country’s inability to increase mobilisation and are critical of Z for refusing to negotiate simply to keep himself and his entourage in power and at the feeding trough. On April 9th, one commentator on legitimniy gave the following assessment of situation on the fronts which is as gloomy as the rest of the report which you can read here:

Puzzle 7. Front The situation at the front is deplorable. Almost a disaster. There is little ammunition, little equipment, and few people. Morale is low and many are depressed. Tension between officers and soldiers is growing. The soldiers quietly hate Ze-power and the General Staff. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to lose ground. The front is sinking.

Puzzle 6. Enemy. The enemy (Russian Federation), during this time, strengthened itself politically, economically, and industrially. They are producing more and more equipment, ammunition, UAVs, missiles, etc. Support for the Russian Federation on the world stage has not decreased, but increased. There are more people stirring up schemes with the Kremlin. There are already fewer people inside Ukraine who think that the arrival of Russia is bad and terrible (the number of those who don’t care what flag is, the main thing is peace and tranquility), is growing especially.

The once great Z is equally pessimistic and has been criticised for recent speeches which have been ‘depressing’. In one recent interview he warned that Ukraine will lose the war without US aid and that Russia will then launch a nuclear attack on ‘other countries’. He blamed the US congress for all this because it did not approve Ukraine’s funding - according to Slavyangrad. Polish President, Donald Tusk, doesn’t share Z’s hysteria, suggesting that a Russian attack of any kind against European countries is unlikely.

The New Yorker is carrying a story from Luke Mogelson who was on the front line in Ukraine recently and talked to Ukrainian officers. These officers ridiculed Z ‘s claim that only 31,000 Ukrainians had been killed. Mogelson compared the once great Z with Pinocchio - who couldn’t stop his nose growing when he lied. Z also promised a new offensive once the West sends the weapons - hey it’s still growing. According to Z’s logic:

Yes, we have a counteroffensive plan. We will definitely win. We have no alternative. But I cannot promise this and name a date.

So, the Ukrainians will win because they must (i.e. should), which can’t count as an argument really. Such ‘thinking’ is commonplace among Western leaders who employ moral imperatives as part of their ‘logic’ - as I have said a number of times before.

Hundreds of protesters gathered in Kiev this week - but not for an end to the war, which would have been great. No, these people were protesting about the destruction of 260 hectares of forest in order to accommodate their menfolk in cemeteries. When people feel more motivated to protest about trees than they do about men there is something seriously wrong with that society. It’s the Green Curse.

The Belgorod region is under fire again. In the morning, the AFU hit Belgorod. Windows were broken and the facade was cut in the building of the Children's Polyclinic No. 4 of Belgorod, arrivals in the area of the Gallery Shopping Center, residential buildings in different parts of the city, Photos with a fire in the private sector diverge. Yesterday, a drone attacked a peaceful tractor near Shebekino, a civilian received minor injuries. Vyazovoye of the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, the village of Krasnoye in the Shebekinsky urban district were shelled. On the DPR's peaceful population, the Nazis fired 125 rounds of ammunition, and 8 civilians were wounded in Donetsk and Gorlovka. The Zaporozhiye NPP reported the arrival of Ukrainian combat drones in the area of the cargo port and nitrogen-oxygen station, no damage to critical infrastructure was recorded.

The Zaporizhye NPP was attacked again overnight but there was minimal damage. Three employees of the plant sustained injuries.

At about 16.00 Moscow time, air defense forces intercepted and destroyed 15 airplane-type drones over Belgorod (12 UAVs) and Bryansk (3 UAVs) regions.

However, some drones got through to cause casualties. In the village of Shagarovka, a car containing six people was hit, killing a young girl and causing serious head injuries to 4 others, including two children.

In the Bryansk region, 2 aircraft–type UAVs were destroyed over the Suzemsky district, 1 over the Trubchevsky district. Due to the attack on the village of Kurkovichi, Starodubsky municipal district, the power supply was disrupted. On the DPR, the enemy fired 63 rounds of ammunition, a civilian born in 1957 died in Makeyevka, 6 were wounded in Donetsk, Gorlovka and Staromikhaylovka, including a girl born in 2017.

The Zaporizhye NPP was attacked again with drones on the 8th April when one drone hit the roof of the 6th power unit. US State spokesman Matthew Miller, predictably, blamed the Russians for the Ukrainian drone attacks urging them to take civilians and military personnel from the plant. The Russians will be raising the NPP attacks at the next UN Security council meeting.

In the Belgorod region, enemy drones continue to destroy civilian vehicles. In the Valuysky urban district, an FPV drone attacked a milk truck moving along the road. An aircraft-type UAV was shot down over the region at night. A similar drone was suppressed by electronic warfare in the Voronezh region. There were reports of the shelling of Tyotkino in the Kursk region. In the DPR, two civilians in Yasinovataya and Gorlovka were wounded by Nazi fire.

On the 9th April, the training centre at the Zaporizhye NPP was hit causing some damage but no casualties. The village of Klimovo in Bryansk was also attacked with shells killing one woman and a child, while injuring three others, according to RT.

According to the Two Majors, drones attacked a bus and a minibus in Belgorod overnight, injuring two civilians. Four ‘aircraft-type’ drones were shot down but caused damage to infrastructure in some villages.

Ukrainian ‘aircraft type’ drones were shot down over Kursk, Bryansk and Lipetsk regions overnight. In Kursk, an explosive device dropped from a drone hit a car killing three people, including two children. 61 rounds of ammunition were aimed at civilians in the DPR. Fortunately, only one person sustained injuries in consequence, according to the Two Majors.

Belgorod and Bryansk came under attack from drones and shelling overnight while in the DPR six civilians were injured by attacks.

Feng Yujun, one of China’s leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist

Four reasons why the Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun, a professor at Peking University.

🔹 The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary.

🔹 The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.

🔹 The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

🔹 The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective.

His conclusion:

🔸 Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.

🔸 Russia’s nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today.

🔸 Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the “Korean” scenario is ruled out.

🔸 The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.

🔸 After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin’s aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity.

According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russia’s military aggression poses to the continent’s security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putin’s Russia.

Source: The Economist - link in the comment under the post

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