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It’s generally best to avoid propaganda from either side.
I have examined region’s map, which predates any Ukraine relevance.
Specifically, a trip from Tajikistan to Moscow requires several border crossings and thus several visas. Particularly Kazakhstan, a rich country with oil and gas, whose border control people are no more bribery receptive than any other country’s.
There are too many border crossings and visas required for this scenario to work. Any of those border events could generate a vehicle search.
This event had to be orchestrated carefully, and likely way above Ukraine’s paygrade.
We will only know after Trump is elected and exposes it.
Did you notice that there was no lame assed DC line about Oh, we warned the Russians about what we knew? Absolutely this was the original target, a very popular singer who was famous for the rendition of the Russian National Anthem.