Posted on 03/04/2024 5:13:16 AM PST by marcusmaximus
Thank you for your lengthy post with detailed observations. It should be required reading for many here. Our only disagreements have more to do with perspective and degree than substance.
Russia is one of the most self-sufficient nations in the world and can survive without support from the majority of its neighbors when they have to. But as I said previously the BRICS economic intergovernmental organization has now actually surpassed G7 in GDP. Those countries including India and China along with Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates have economies that are stable or expanding. None of them paid more than lip service to the “sanctions”. While G7 economies partially because of the “economic sanctions” are set up to whither on the vine without the vast resources that Russia has been exporting to them.
I believe the real motivation for our and our allies’ coercive actions over the past ten years in Ukraine had nothing to do with the well-being of the Ukrainian people and everything to do with weakening Russia with the actual goal of regime change.
We have Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of dead and mutilated people, a ruined country and a failed puppet regime which no longer even pretends to be anything resembling a democracy. With friends like us who needs enemies? This situation has only solidified Putin’s popularity and power in Russia and abroad despite claims from the massive amount of propaganda disseminated from mostly Western sources.
We are going to have to acknowledge that Russia has achieved its objectives and nothing that it has gained will likely be negotiated away. This was a costly win for them but their prestige in the world has increased while it will be difficult for the buffoons in leadership positions on our side to not come out of this looking like the idiots that their actions have revealed them to be.
As far as Russia now being a “sworn enemy”, while I believe that severe damage has been done, carefully considered foreign policy guided by President Trump’s administration hopefully will be able to correct much of the awful situation which has now been created.
If the Democrats somehow are able to cheat Biden and company back into office the consequences will be grave and the situation will continue to deteriorate to the point that a Nuclear war would be a real possibility with almost certain complete economic collapse. I am not so sure that this is not what the real goal of many on the left are actually hoping for. They are a deluded bunch with self-destructive tendencies, many of whom believe that it would be a good for the “environment” if 90% of the world’s population were annihilated.
Looking back through your excellent posts in this thread, I came across the excerpt above. This reminds me of the well-known quote from Abraham Maslow,
“If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.”
But ironically, (1) because Russia has a stable government, with a (2) very stable bureaucracy (less turn over than ours), a (3) society that isn't suicidal, (4) which actually does follow doctrine, has a (5) professional military and where they have built in multiple safeties to ensure no accidents, the risk is very low. Unless we push them into an actual existential crisis, the threat of Russia using nuclear weapons is very low.
Even now, with us being directly responsible for the deaths of thousands of Russians, playing on their border, having caused this war, and bragging about it proudly, the probability of a Russian nuclear event is extremely low.
On the world stage, Russia maintains a capable nuclear deterrence comparable to ours (and we are both in the top 2 positions), but they are one of the “least likely” nations to ever employ them.
In fact, even we are more likely to employ these than Russia, albeit in a highly limited/specialized manner. We have been debating the use for nuclear bunker busters for years since there are bunkers today that exceed conventional limits.
If you really want to piss folks off, and all of this is factual, it is us that lit two nukes before (Hiroshima and Nagasaki), it is us that did the most tests (~1/3 more than the Soviet Union), exposed more people to radiation in tests, withdrew from the ballistic missile treaty, developed miniature nukes that were to be employed at lower echelons but over which you also exercise far less control... We don't see ourselves this way, because our rationalizations are always justified in our own mind, but if you look at us from the outside and objectively (say you're an Italian and you look at the US and Russia), we are far more unpredictable and willing to employ these weapons than Russia is, historically seen.
Today and in the near future, Pakistan, India, Israel, North Korea are the likely candidates for lighting a big one in the atmosphere or space eventually, may that be because of internal instability (societal / political) or external threats.
Russia and their nuclear threats fall flat because of their stability and predictability. Which is actually a good thing, but it works against them in this case when they want to scare you. This is a case where when they beat their shoe on the table and say they want to “bury you,” you look at them, nod in acknowledgment and smile.
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