Russo-Ukrainian War: The Deluge [The latest from Big Serge]

Substack ^ | 3/1/24 | Big Serge

[EnderWiggin1970]

As the calendar barrels into another year and we tick away the days of February, notable anniversaries are marked off in sequence. It is now 2/22/2022 +2: two years since Putin’s address on the historic status of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, followed on 2/24/2022 by the commencement of the Special Military Operation and the spectacular resumption of history.

The nature of the war changed dramatically after a kinetic and mobile opening phase. With the collapse of the negotiation process (whether thanks to Boris Johnson or not), it became clear that the only way out of the conflict would be through the strategic defeat of one party by the other. Thanks to a pipeline of western support (in the form of material, financial aid, and ISR and targeting assistance) which allowed Ukraine to transcend its rapidly evaporating indigenous war economy, it became clear that this would be a war of industrial attrition, rather than rapid maneuver and annihilation. Russia began to mobilize resources for this sort of attritional war in the Autumn of 2022, and since then the war has attained its present quality - that of a firepower intensive but relatively static positional struggle.

The nature of this attritional-positional war lends itself to analytic ambiguity, because it denies the most attractive and obvious signs of victory and defeat in large territorial changes. Instead, a whole host of anecdotal, small scale positional analysis, and foggy data has to suffice, and this can be easily misconstrued or misunderstood. Ukraine’s supporters point to nominally small scale advances to support their notion that Russia is suffering cataclysmic casualties to capture small villages. This suggests that Russia is winning meaningless, pyrrhic victories which will lead to its exhaustion, so long as Ukraine receives everything it asks for from the west.

[Chainmail]

"Also if you think that the Russians won’t punish you then you aren’t smart."

However powerful you Russians think you are, you wouldn't have a chance and you know it. Here you are in a miserable struggle trying to overcome a much smaller country and you're bleeding sons (when will Russian parents finally wake up and get rid of that homicidal idiot Putin?).

You're at very best a second rate power - learn to live with it and behave.

P.S - it wouldn't be "Vietnam"; you strike the US and you're a parking lot by the next morning.

[Firehath]

Since

in the intervening period between (the time mentioned) and the time under consideration, typically the present

Gog over the cliff usa

MaGog over the cliff nato - un - Vatican

Rev 13

[NorseViking]

LOL. Tell me when the US “overcame” a much stronger country.
Also you don’t have to be omni-powerful to kill tens of thousands of Americans and make lives of millions miserable.
And if you want to talk in terms of nuclear, do you really believe the Russians are unable to fry your ass?