Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[BeauBo]

“Ukrainian drone strike on Russian refinery in Krasnodar”

Krasnodar is (was?) Russia’s oldest refinery.

[blitz128]

Very realistic appraisal

[BeauBo]

The oil market is swimming in so much supply, that analysts are projecting $50 Brent, and suppliers having to cut back production next year.

Conditions are set, to force those production cuts on Russia, without market prices having to rise too high. That is what all the new Ukrainian long range strike weapons are for.

Bone-Crushing.

OilPrice.com (31 Aug):

Wall Street Forecasts Oil in the $50s Next Year

“The market consensus appears to be that the strong summer demand is at its peak, and come the fourth quarter, global oil consumption will slow, and rising supply will overwhelm the market.

Growing supply from OPEC+ and higher output from South America will tip the market balance into oversupply toward the end of the year, analysts say.

Despite geopolitical risks, Wall Street banks have lowered their oil price forecasts for later this year and the first quarter of 2026, expecting the glut to depress prices...

...The glut will diminish by the third quarter of 2026, the banks reckon, as excess supply shocks are absorbed during next summer’s peak demand period.

But banks, analysts, and market participants expect oil supply to outstrip demand over the next six months, putting additional downward pressure on prices...

...The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is even more bearish than major banks in oil price projections.

The EIA expects in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Brent to slump in the coming months, falling from $71 per barrel in July to average just $58 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and around $50 per barrel in early 2026...

...Due to the OPEC+ supply hikes, global oil inventory builds will average more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in late 2025 and early 2026, which is 800,000 bpd more than in last month’s STEO.

“Low oil prices in early 2026 will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, which we expect will help moderate inventory builds later in 2026,” the EIA said.”