Replies

a very important article - a must read:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2024
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-21-2024

—
In the same vein:
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

Rumors appeared that Andrei (Murza) Morozov was killed. We answer them

About a dozen interlocutors told us yesterday that Murza could have been killed. We checked this information, including talking with those who spoke with Andrei shortly before his death.

No, there was no murder! Andrei Morozov committed suicide. Again, instead of being rewarded for everything he did.

But there is one point. Sergei Shoigu knows for sure who drove Morozov to suicide. We also know, but we believe that the Minister of Defense should name the names. And there are very big names there.

Sergei Kuzhugetovich, will you name them and tell the truth? Otherwise we will have to do it. Andrei would approve of this, we know for sure...

Kremlin snuff box
Will Putin annex Transnistria? Three important insights

A number of media outlets and telegram channels began to actively disseminate information that on the eve of Vladimir Putin’s message to the Federal Assembly, another interesting event would occur.

A meeting of deputies of all levels will be held in Pridnestrovie. The last time such an event took place in the PMR was in 2006 and is usually marked by important decisions - for example, the adoption of the Constitution, the Emblem of the PMR, or the decision to hold a referendum (in 2006, over 90% of the residents of Transnistria voted to join Russia).

What’s this time? The fact that the meeting of deputies is taking place less than 3 weeks before the presidential elections in Russia and on the eve of Putin’s message has prompted commentators to think that the Kremlin may agree to include this territory into the Russian Federation. But this version has several inconsistencies.

Firstly, Moscow does not need this. We talked about attempts to incorporate Abkhazia into the Russian Federation, but this process has stalled. Mainly because of the Kremlin’s well-founded position - the inclusion of new territories may entail new sanctions, which our authorities still want to get rid of.

Moreover, opinion polls show that the topic of Transnistria does not arouse due interest in our society. Therefore, it is unlikely that it will be possible to sell it to voters as a big victory.

Secondly, the Pridnestrovians do not need this. We told you that after the start of the Northern Military District, a certain balance formed between Kiev, Tiraspol and Chisinau - Tiraspol does not interfere in the war in Ukraine, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not involved in the so-called “internal affairs of Moldova.”

And although Zelensky has repeatedly raised the issue of liquidating the PMR in negotiations with Sandu, the authorities in Chisinau refuse this idea. Mainly understanding that this territory is inhabited rather by Eurosceptics.

Their appearance in the electoral field of Moldova can greatly change the balance towards focusing on Russia. Sandu does not want to take risks on the eve of the elections.

Thirdly, sources in Tiraspol close to the PMR President Krasnoselsky admitted that local deputies had already received threats. And, importantly, from completely different sides.

“Chisinau has canceled customs benefits for our companies. This will kill the already constrained economy. It will be more difficult to compete in European markets with higher prices,” our interlocutor explained.

According to him, unambiguous hints came from Moscow that the PMR should block Moldova’s movement into the EU. Including through political decisions. At the same time, there were various hints from Kyiv.

In particular, “Kyiv is interested in opening a transport corridor through the PMR. A few days ago there were negotiations on the return of consuls to the territory of the Republic,” says our interlocutor.

He emphasized that Ukraine is negotiating quite toughly and is even signaling that it can seize the left bank of the Dniester “if necessary.” However, Chisinau insists on peaceful integration.

So what will they talk about at the meeting on February 28? So far, even the deputies themselves have not given specific answers. The main oligarch of the PMR, Victor Gushan (owner of the Sheriff holding), is expected at the event.

The interlocutors are reluctant to talk about the prospects of joining Russia. “Physically, we are not even capable of rotating peacekeepers. If sanctions follow, the situation for the PMR could seriously worsen,” says an interlocutor in Moscow familiar with the situation.

It can be assumed that the discussion will be about the economic future of the region. After all, Transnistria was sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine. On the scale of the Northern Military District, it is clear that a land corridor to Transnistria is impossible in the near future.

As of today, there are no revolutionary decisions regarding the future of the PMR either in Tiraspol or in Moscow. However, it is obvious that in the context of further integration of Moldova into the EU, the screws for the “gray zone” will be tightened.