Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4210394/posts
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA.
“Why Internet Trolls Do What They Do and How to Spot Russian Fakes”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLtBzvw0—0
“Here is the best-kept secret about U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Most of the money is being spent here in the United States. That’s right: Funds that lawmakers approve to arm Ukraine are not going directly to Ukraine but being used stateside to build new weapons or to replace weapons sent to replace weapons sent to Kyiv from U.S. stockpiles. Of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has approved since Russia invaded Ukraine, almost 90 percent is going to Americans, one analysis found.”
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1730119780873441750
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1747173624002298110
They say that, because they don’t want to admit, that they couldn’t see the Ukrainian missiles coming.
Or this is for the ruzzian public...They cannot admit any Ukrainian success.
🔥 Russia: Warehouse on fire in Mytishchi, Moscow suburb.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1747003139625304264
❄️ Russia: Ruptured central heating pipe in Arkhangelsk on January 11th. Thousands in the area are without heat 5 days later.
Current temperature -21°C.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1747000801384611849
Five days without heat or hot water.
In an attempt to defend his position that the three aircraft attacked yesterday were hit by friendly fire, Fighterbomber posted the below image (pic. 1) and stated:
"This is what an airplane/helicopter mark looks like on most modern sights. On most scopes, missiles look the same.
Dear experts of all stripes, who crawled out of all the cracks during the SVO, write what type of aircraft we see here, what size is it and what is its affiliation?
Thanks in advance for your answer."
If you agree with what he is saying, then to a Russian SAM operator, a civilian airliner looks the same as a KC-135 tanker so they would fire at it. And, although this explains the Russians shooting down civilian aircraft in the past, is simply is not true.
The fact is that military and civilian aircraft carry transponders that identify who they are known as IFF (Identify Friend or Foe) and/or ADS (Automatic Dependent Surveillance) and/or other systems specifically designed to avoid what he claims happened.
In addition, the Russian SAM units, especially those that would be firing at these aircraft (i.e., S300/400 but most likely and S400) are communicating with the A-50 (possibly even through the Il-22M11) to coordinate information on hostile targets. So, the A-50 was sending telemetry to the S400 unit identifying itself as a hostile target?
What he is claiming is simply not true and he knows better. I think that by going to this ridiculous extent to support his claim of friendly fire, he actually provides proof that the AFU shot down the aircraft.
Pic. 2 is of the inside of an S-400 Triumph showing part of the radar and fire control system. Even though the image is blurry, you can clearly see that targets on the radar screen have identification and telemetry associated with them and not just a number. Again, I believe he was working hard to do the job of the Russian propaganda machine to convince the ignorant Russian domestic sheep that their aircraft cannot be defeated by Ukraine or NATO.
I actually find it amusing that because of all of the Russian lies about the invincibility of their military, they then have to lie about shooting down their own planes to save face or claim the Flagship of the Black Sea Fleet sunk at sea because of a small storm. Therefore, to the Russian psyche, death by incompetence is better than death by defeat.
I wonder if they don't have to pay the families if its friendly fire...
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1747212103927091416
Here's some additional pics:
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
“We are people too.” In Voronezh they told who took away their air defense systems and asked for new ones
After a drone strike in Voronezh that damaged residential buildings, Governor Alexander Gusev sent an urgent appeal to Vladimir Putin and Sergei Shoigu.
In it, he asks to strengthen the air defense of the Voronezh region and complains that the region’s defense has been weakened due to the authorities of Moscow and Crimea.
Gusev claims that the region’s air defense was seriously weakened, since part of the air defense and electronic warfare systems were taken from here to Crimea and Moscow.
In this regard, drones fly to residential areas of Voronezh and threaten the life and health of civilians, rather than getting shot down on approach to the city.
“All last year they took away our air defense systems. First they were taken away at the request of the Moscow authorities, then the Crimean and Sevastopol ones.
“The last time several air defense systems were taken to Moscow was just a few days ago due to intensifying frosts,” a source close to Gusev quoted us as saying.
“We are people too and we want to be protected. We ask you to urgently provide us with additional protection. Otherwise, the next enemy attack may end in tragedy,” the governor also says.
Putin has not yet familiarized himself with this appeal. But in the Ministry of Defense, according to our sources, “they simply don’t know where to get additional air defense systems for Voronezh and the region.”
“Perhaps we will transfer something from Moscow and the Moscow region. If Sobyanin doesn’t cause a scandal,” an interlocutor close to Shoigu told us.
Russian force generation can sustain current levels of losses for low-skilled ground forces (specific equipment is another issue), but a high profile mobilization (after the election) would likely be needed, if Russia really sought to change the status quo.
ISW reports (15 Jan):
“Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated that Russia recruits about 30,000 personnel per month, which the Russian military uses to replenish losses and form reserve regiments.
Ukrainian military analyst Colonel Petro Chernyk similarly assessed that Russia is able to replace about 25,000 to 27,000 personnel per month and has a small ready professional reserve of mechanized, naval infantry, and airborne (VDV) assault units staffed at 10 to 15 percent of its total capacity.
Skibitskyi and Chernyk’s figures are consistent with the ISW’s assessment that Russian forces can conduct operational level rotations in most sectors of the frontline. Chernyk stated that Russia has between 1.5 million and seven million people in its general mobilizable reserve (“personnel mobilization resource” or zapas) composed of men that could be mobilized regardless of prior military experience, as distinct from the far smaller ready and professional reserve (“personnel mobilization reserve“) that should, in theory, be more militarily proficient on mobilization.
Skibitskyi reported that Russia would need to conduct “mobilization” (likely referring to large-scale mobilization) to establish a “powerful strategic reserve.””
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1747374996144456135
Kyiv Independent reports (January 17, 2024):
"Washington’s authorization for allies to give F-16s to Ukraine came through in August 2023. A month earlier, 11 countries formed the “fighter jet coalition” that would deliver the planes and prepare Ukraine and its pilots to use them. It later grew to include 14 countries.
The coalition is led by the U.S., Denmark, and the Netherlands. The others include Norway, the U.K., Greece, Luxembourg, Canada, Poland, France, Romania, Belgium, Portugal and Sweden.
Some of them are supplying the actual hardware — planes, munitions and equipment. Others are making their jets and instructors available for training or preparing pilots on their soil.
The exact number of F-16s to be delivered has yet to be determined. The Netherlands and Denmark will provide at least 37, while Norway and Belgium pledged to give some as well. Delivery dates range from 2024 to 2025, as is the case for the expected completion of the pilot training programs.
There are three separate programs for pilots at different levels. Earlier this month, Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said that six advanced pilots are already flying F-16s in Denmark and should be ready to fight in the spring. The least experienced group is training in the U.K. — they might not be ready until 2025.
An intermediate group training in Arizona is expected to graduate later this year, according to a Jan. 4 briefing by the U.S. State Department.
Ukrainian ground crews are also learning to service the aircraft.
F-16s are more powerful but also more fragile than the Soviet fighters that Ukraine uses and require specialized logistics and infrastructure.
For example, they require smoother runways. One of the biggest challenges will be resurfacing the runways that Ukraine plans to use without attracting the Russians’ attention.
“Airfields must be protected from air strikes, which means it will be necessary to deploy the air defense systems if it has not already been done,” Viktor Kevliuk, an expert of Ukraine’s Center for Defense Strategies, told the Kyiv Independent.
“The allies should also provide us with air-to-air missiles for air combat because Soviet bombs are not suitable for this plane,” he said. These weapons, plus all the fuel reserves have to be kept somewhere safe and well-guarded. ”This is quite a long process...”
...Ukraine is trying to get more modern avionics and weapon systems installed on the planes it will be getting, which would significantly improve their performance. The jets will require lots of spare parts that the U.S. has pledged to provide.
The first batch of planes may be coming from the Netherlands. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on Dec. 22 said that his government started preparing the initial 18 fighter jets, while a spokesperson from the Dutch Defense Ministry told NOS that more jets may be delivered at a later date. There have been no updates since then.
Denmark had pledged to supply six planes by the end of 2023, but the delivery date has been reportedly pushed back six months. Copenhagen said it would give 19 planes in total.
Danish and Dutch officials have said the delivery schedule depends on the readiness of Ukraine’s infrastructure and pilots, among other factors.
Belgium’s defense minister has promised several jets, which would likely arrive in 2025. According to Norwegian broadcaster NRK, Norway plans to send between five and 10 planes, but neither the total number or the delivery schedule has been fixed.
Experts told the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine will likely have at least some F-16s operational in late spring or early summer...
...“With some careful planning… I think there’s a chance that at least in the early stages before the Russians understand what’s happening, they can score some air-to-air kills by having F-16 fighters in just the right place at the right time,” said Peter Layton, Associate Fellow at Royal United Services Institute and former Royal Australian Air Force officer.
The AMRAAM air-to-air missiles that can be fired from the platform have a longer range than the weapons that can be fitted on Ukraine’s MiG-29s. However, this will only remain a tactical advantage before Russians adapt by dragging their aircraft further back from the front line, he said.
Kevliuk noted that Ukrainian and Russian warplanes have not engaged in much air-to-air combat in the past year, as both armies are trying to preserve them.
Russian planes mostly engage ground targets, including civilian targets in cities. F-16s could defend Ukraine’s airspace, reducing the pressure on ground-based air defenses, according to Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center.
“With Russia targeting Ukraine's cities, there is a very real danger that Ukraine's air defense launchers could run empty trying to engage every salvo of Russian drones and missiles… If that happens, Russia could gain air superiority over Ukraine by default, and it would be able to bring the full firepower of its air force to bear on the battlefield,” Grieco said.
“To avoid this outcome, Ukraine would need to be more selective in engaging these Russian strikes, or it needs to find additional missiles to intercept these attacks. The F-16 has the potential to be useful in this role.”
Offensively, F-16s could also engage ground targets, helping Ukraine “blast a way” into a Russian-held area by dropping high-explosive bombs “that will create a lot of blasts, noise, and bomb fragments,” according to Layton, although this won’t last long because the F-16 can’t carry a big bomb payload.
As versatile as they are, F-16s have their limitations. Grieco argued that they are unlikely to be the key to breaking through Russia's defensive lines or establishing clear air superiority. To do that, she thinks Ukraine needs to suppress or destroy Russia’s surface-to-air batteries, like the S-400.
“Ukrainian pilots flying F-16s, equipped with anti-radiation weapons, would have to fly well into the S-400's engagement range to bait Russian operators into emitting,” said Grieco.
“The S-400's engagement range is nearly four times the range of an AGM-88 anti-radiation missile, which makes it an inherently dangerous mission, and Ukraine's losses would likely and quickly become unsustainable.”
In the long term, having an F-16 program may accelerate Ukraine’s move towards synchronizing its military with NATO standards and reducing its reliance on outdated aircraft."
Latvia is heading a “Drone Coalition” of 20 nations, to provide Ukraine with drones for its war effort.
France leads a new “Artillery Coalition”.
The UK and Norway lead a “Naval Coalition”.
USA, Denmark and the Netherlands lead the “Fighter Jet Coalition” of 14 nations.
Western Military support for Ukraine is becoming more and more institutionally entrenched.
