[BobL]

Going to be interesting to see how Argentina’s dilapidated military fares against the UK’s depleted, woke, and nearly non-existent military.

My money is still with Argentina, unless the UK can get a division (if they even have that many troops) down there first.

[hinckley buzzard]

UK doesn’t have a Maggie Thatcher at the helm. Argentina could make demands and negotiate for this, have a fair chance of success.

[verum ago]

Going to be interesting to see how Argentina’s dilapidated military fares against the UK’s depleted, woke, and nearly non-existent military.

My money is still with Argentina, unless the UK can get a division (if they even have that many troops) down there first.

I suspect the UK's navy, namely submarines, would be decisive in an actual engagement. But does the UK have the political will to use it decisively?

I'm guessing about 50:50. If it weren't for the Falkland Islanders voting overwhelmingly in referenda to remain British (96% was the lower vote), my money would be on Argentina negotiating the islands away without a shot fired or troop deployed.

One very cynical wild card: Argentine politicians keep using the Falkland Islands as a distraction from domestic political problems- it's practically a tradition at this point. Would any individual leader really want to get them back and lose that nice, shiny distraction forever? Can't fire people up over "Los Malvinas" if they've been taken from the UK...