I thought black swan events were pretty much unpredictable by definition.
Here is a hilarious article (if you share my dark sense of humor) showing just how fragile the economy is right now:
Short version:
The largest state pension fund invested heavily in commercial real estate (CRE) which has crashed in value.
If they liquidate the CRE their holdings are large enough that they could destroy the entire CRE market nationwide.
That in turn would bring down most of the banking system—especially regional banks who have more outstanding CRE loans than they have equity.
However—the pension fund needs cash to pay the retired teachers—now.
Solution: Borrow 6 billion dollars to meet their obligations this year.
Remember—after you max out all your credit cards your best move is to try to find somebody stupid enough to give you another one!
“I thought black swan events were pretty much unpredictable by definition.”
exactly ...
People use it when they mean "a perfect storm" too.