Entering the last month of the presidential campaign. Arguably, the most sensitive and potentially dangerous period in our country’s history.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
Note on Terrorism below. NYC and other major metro areas may face enlarged pro-islamic terror protests with the approach of Oct 7. There is increasing potential for rioting and vandalism.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.
Federal authorities issued a warning ahead of the one-year October 7 anniversary when Hamas terrorists launched attacks on Israel and killed thousands of innocent lives.
The FBI, Department of Homeland Security, and National Counterterrorism Center posted a federal intelligence bulletin warning of potential violence “as well as any further significant escalations” in the Israel-Hamas war that “may be a motivating factor for violent extremists and hate crime perpetrators to engage in violence or threaten public safety.”
POTENTIALLY RELATED - crossing over to CW2 material
More so on the RUMINT side, I pinned these notes from Forward Observer over a month ago regarding potential kick off for more pro-hamas/pro-islam violence and terror
Palestine Action U.S., a prominent U.S.-based Palestinian activist group, recently rebranded as “Unity of Fields,” and issued a declaration to escalate pro-Palestine militant activity.
Unity of Fields says the current pro-Palestine movement has “reached the limits of passive” activism and is now forming a “militant front against the US-NATO-Zionist Axis of Imperialism.”
The group declared they will “open a new front” against the U.S. empire to join the international resistance movement against Zionism and its supporters.
Alt-media pundits are equating this development to the 7 October 2023 Hamas terror attack in Israel, predicting that terrorist attacks will erupt across the United States in October.
OBSERVATION - The threat from the pro-islam factions was kindled this past spring on college campuses following extended protests and some violence that started with the Hamas terror strike on Israel on Oct 7, ’23. There leftist Antifa affiliated trash found a kindled spirit and supported the various actions. Because of the ongoing war, these terror supporters have been able to maintain some degree of presence. With the anniversary of the war, and Israel’s imminent attack on Iran, more radical elements may move forward beyond the protests / vandalism and into terror attacks.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
U.S. economy reportedly added 254,000 jobs in September
Unemployment rate to 4.1%
OPEN THE HOOD AND LOOK DEEPER
“Over the past year alone, 825,000 American citizens LOST employment, while most jobs went to foreign-born workers. 1.2 million foreign-born workers GAINED employment. Full-time jobs are DOWN: 251,000 fewer full-time jobs, while part-time workers jumped,” the Make America Great Again Pac released Friday. “Jobs reports like these almost always get revised down- we cannot trust this Administration to report the actual jobs data- in the last year alone they have manipulated these reports to reflect almost a MILLION FAKE jobs that have taken victory laps for and then later revised down.”
Unemployment at 4.1% under Biden-Harris is sharply higher than Trump’s 3.5%. It’s that much harder today to find a job–especially for the 2.7 million unemployed White men and 700,000 unemployed Black women. Those groups have the suffered the biggest increase in unemployed rate.
OBSERVATION - The regime and its MSM underlings will not point out these details from the labor report. They hope to gaslight the majority to accept their narrative. Once again, Americans are the ones really feeling the effects of these cooked numbers.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC
This summit was held this week. I’ve not seen any press releases on any results - likely buried beneath the tons of other news.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
On Friday, CNN published a story about fraud under Walz’s governorship as the misappropriation of state funds led to what the Department of Justice called “the single largest COVID-19 fraud scheme in the nation.”
Feeding Our Future — a program to help feed needy children — fraudulently spent close to $250 million, but as CNN reported, instead of going to help hungry kids, the money went toward “buying houses, luxury cars, and a suburban bar and restaurant.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/cnn-drops-bomb-tim-walz-releases-blistering-segment/
OBSERVATION - Follow the money, honey.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden continues to throw cold water on Harris’ attempts to distance herself from the regime, most recently saying she was fully involved in creating and implementing all the policies of the past three years.
Russia -
Logistics –
Around half of the artillery shells used by Russia, approximately 3 million annually, come from North Korea, according to The Times. Despite many shells being considered defective, their sheer quantity has enabled Russia to make steady advances, including the capture of Vuhledar in Donetsk.
NOTE - Russia is fast losing the ability to fire these rounds. Battle losses combined with tube failures are increasing.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair. Increasing chances of showers towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, out of 13 launched, Ukraine shot down 3 Shahed drones and 10 additional drones were taken down due to EW measures.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Zhelanne Druhe in Donetsk region of Ukraine
OSINT analysis of the Russian offensive in this region -
Incredible Russian losses on the Pokrovsk front. Russia burned through over a tank division’s worth of tanks and at least 4-5 mechanized division’s worth of IFVs and APCs. Not including personnel losses approximately equal to material losses.
All of that lost to advance a grand total of about 𝟑𝟎 𝐤𝐦 (about 15 miles) west of Avdiivka over the past eight months.
Assessment is that Russia’s efforts here are fast running out of steam as well as men and equipment.
Outlook —
Continued grind on the eastern front. No operational breakthroughs seen for either side in the near term
It is about time for another Russian missile/drone blitz.
Belarus -
Lukashenka says that decision was made not to comment not on Russian or Ukrainian drones flying in Belarusian airspace
NOTE - This has become an almost daily occurrence as Russian Shahed drones stray off course.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania’s Ministry of Defense confirmed the discovery of Russian drone fragments near the Litcov Canal, approximately one kilometer from the confluence with the Sf. Gheorghe branch. A team from the Ministry of Defense, Romanian Intelligence Service, and Ministry of Internal Affairs inspected the site and collected the fragments for further analysis.
The Ministry condemned Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, labeling them unjustified and a violation of international law.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to kill high ranking Hamas, Hezbollah and IRGC commanders.
- Ground action in S Lebanon continues.
- Israel looking to defy biden in their counter strike planning.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel army says it is preparing a “significant attack” on Iran
Bloomberg, citing an informed source (probably biden regime official): There are concerns that Israel may cross the line and attack more targets than necessary in Iran
Biden says Israel should seek ‘other alternatives’ to striking Iran oil sites
Israeli Broadcasting Authority: Israel is still preparing to strike Iran, but has not specified the place and time.
Israel has refused to promise the United States that it would not attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in response to the Iranian attack. Also hasn’t promised to scale back any attack on Iranian oil production and related facilities.
***
Iran has been attempting to land a 747 cargo jet at an airfield either in Syria or even Beirut. For the third time Iran’s cargo plane with weapons for Hezbollah made a U-turn and returned to Tehran, after Israel threatened to intercept it.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The Israeli army is calling on Palestinian civilians in some areas of Nuseirat and Bureij in the central Gaza Strip to evacuate to the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone according to Colonel Avichay Adraee, the Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesman
Hamas has announced the Death of Saeed Atallah Ali, the head of their military wing also known as the “Al-Qassam Brigades” in Lebanon, who was eliminated yesterday in an Israeli precision-airstrike on his aspartment within the Beddawi refugee camp in the Tripoli District of northwestern Lebanon.
NOTE - It seems a number of Hamas and affiliated terror leaders are showing up in Lebanon instead of holding to fight in Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A barrage of rockets was fired from Lebanon at the Karmiel area in the Galilee, dealt with via Iron Dome
Troops of the Israeli army’s Commando Brigade and elite Yahalom Unit demolished several Hezbollah tunnel shafts that the military says were used by operatives to get close to the Israeli border in southern Lebanon. The soldiers also located and demolished underground caches of weapons, observation posts, and rocket launching sites in villages in southern Lebanon. Dozens of Hezbollah operatives were also killed in airstrikes directed by the commandos, the military adds
For the first time since the start of the recent escalation in Lebanon, northern Lebanon was targeted by an Israeli drone strike that targeted an apartment in a residential building in the Beddawi camp - north of Tripoli, killing four people, including Saeed al-Ali, a leader in the “Qassam Brigades”, the military wing of the “Hamas” movement.
Unconfirmed reports that Esmail Qaani, Commander of Iran’s Quds Forces, was eliminated in a targeted strike in Beirut. Qaanai replaced Qasem Soleimani who was eliminated by the US in 2020.
Israel is prepared to widen its operations in Southern Lebanon soon, according to the Channel 11
Summary of the results from the first 4 days of the Israeli ground operations -
250 Hezbollah terrorists were killed, of which 21 are commanders.
Among them:
- 5 battalion commanders
- 10 company commanders
- 6 platoon commanders
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Initial reports of Israeli strikes on Palmyra military airport in the Homs Governorate of central Syria, which is operated by the Russian-based “Wagner Group” and the an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iran’s FM: Iran stands with the Axis of Resistance. My presence in Beirut in these difficult times is the best sign that Iran will firmly back Hezbollah and Lebanon. Iran’s attack against Israel was a self-defense under the UN Charter. We were the initiator of the attack
American-British attacked Houthi targets in Sana’a, Yemen
According to U.S. Defense Officials; the USS Georgia (SSGN-729), an Ohio-Class Cruise Missile Submarine which can carry upwards of 150 “Tomahawk” Land-Attack Cruise Missiles (TLAMs), participated in today’s strikes against the Houthi terrorist group in Western Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
(AP) — U.S.-arranged flights have brought about 350 Americans and their immediate relatives out of Lebanon this week during escalated fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, while thousands of others still there face airstrikes and diminishing commercial flights.
Britain has arranged charter flights to rescue British citizens in Lebanon.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Clock ticking down to Israel’s counter strike on Iran. Public ‘announcements’ from the biden regime telling Israel to scale back any attack. Israel / Netanyahu OTOH appear to be ready to hit Iran very hard - sending the message to it and the arab world that biden et al just doesn’t understand.
My best guess is that Iran’s oil infrastructure and especially Kharg Island are going to get hard. Other important targets will be Irans’s ballistic missiles and key components of their nuclear weapons development program. Israel may wait for another day to focus fully on the nuke program in a broader measure. Other IRGC bases/facilities also choice targets.
Bonus - I expect an attempt to take out the mullahs.
Israel’s strike has to be big and hard, else they show that pressure from biden is weakening their resolve to fight this war the way it should be. Israel’s last attack after the April Iranian attack, though small, sent a very strategic message, one that Iran may be overlooking.
Israel is on the verge of finishing up its initial push into Lebanon - designed to overcome the defensive line Hezbollah had established in an attempt to repeat the 2008 war. Cut off from higher level support, Hezbollah forces can put up an initial hard fight, but have no wear with all and die in place.
Lebanon is a different battle field than Gaza, though there be some similarities.
Israel is being aggressive in cutting off resupply to Hezbollah coming in from Syria. Again, Israeli intel capabilities have eyes on this and they are not afraid to go after it. The recent attack on a Hezbollah / Iranian ammo dump next to a Russian military base is one example. I fully expect that the IAF will eventually shoot down the Iranian cargo 747 that has been attempting to get supplies to Hezbollah and its affiliated militias. This will force Iran to try to use trucks to get supplies in - a method that is equally vulnerable and has been nailed multiple times by Israel in the past.
Israel continues to nail leadership of all terror groups - in a daily basis - in massive amounts As noted, several third order replacements have been taken out- - probably those who didn’t warrant a pager. This should make the Mullah’s in Iran very nervous. Israel hit a Hamas leader in a guest room of an IRGC general, they may well know where the mullah’s are hiding.
Timing is still Israel’s call. I continue to think Oct 7 would be a very symbolic day for the big counter strike - avoiding any conflicts with Yom Kippur on Oct 12.
Iran –
Reports that Russia has supplied S400 ADA systems to Iran.
Syria -
Reports of a rocket attack against U.S Forces at the Mission Support Site at Conoco earlier. No reports of casualties. USAF CAPs were up and have been over the region, no reports of airstrikes.
Misc of Note –
Helene recovery issues continue -
Persistent first hand accounts of FEMA blocking relief, threatening arrests, covering up other despicable actions all the while providing virtually no assistance to those hardest hit in TN and NC.
In response, in addition to a massive PR spin from peripheral areas getting ‘support’, FEMA has also established ‘rumor control’ to fight its public relations nightmare.
“There has been a lot of rumors spreading about the #Helene response. Rumors can create confusion & prevent people from getting assistance they need. Help us share accurate information,” FEMA wrote.
FEMA’s interference in local relief efforts even gained national note when Elon Musks helicopters carrying Starlink receivers were blocked by FEMA (also, biden claimed credit for the Starlink systems Musk had already delivered and installed).
“Tech billionaire Elon Musk took to X on Friday afternoon to claim the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is “actively blocking” volunteers who try to help the struggling citizens of western North Carolina in the wake of Hurricane Helene.
“Just received this note from a SpaceX engineer helping on the ground in North Carolina,” Musk wrote. “@FEMA is not merely failing to adequately help people in trouble, but is actively blocking citizens who try to help!””
https://www.newsmax.com/us/aid-fema-helene/2024/10/04/id/1182894/
Again first hand reports that a FEMA official was beat up by locals after he tried to bully them. Reports that the NC Highway Patrol (functionally the state police) has threatened to arrest any FEMA personnel from blocking and confiscating relief supplies or otherwise interfering with relief operations organized by civilians.
Local sheriffs warning of arrests of FEMA associated individuals if they interfere with independent relief efforts, noting that many areas have drifted into a WORL (Without Rule of Law) conditions.
Do I believe these reports over the PR put out by the regime? Most certainly, the carry greater credibility and components of which HAVE been done in the past. Especially the Red Cross scam. Continued oppression by FEMA may bring even stronger pushback in the coming days. Lead, follow or get out of the way.
Bright spots in the civilian efforts
- Mule teams (and even trained goat teams) packing supplies into stricken areas
- Creative construction of zip lines to ferry supplies across rivers/gorges
- Increase in civilian helicopters (in the face of FEMA threats). Interesting note that the Cajun Navy has basically established a helicopter wing and are flying numerous missions.
Folks this is ugly and we shouldn’t have to be fighting a bloated govt bureaucracy to mobilize aid to disaster victims. FEMA has turned into a monster.
***
One lighter note - my HF antenna is up and I’ll be fully operational by the end of the day. Primarily operating on the 10m-40m bands, capable of monitoring up to 160 m band. Please don’t ask for my calling - too easily looked up on the FCC website. Comms is a critical element - clearly seen in the Helene disaster. This has been one of my check box goals for this year.
Local sheriffs warning of arrests of FEMA associated individuals if they interfere with independent relief efforts, noting that many areas have drifted into a WORL (Without Rule of Law) conditions.
It's about time.
Long overdue, IMO, but good that it's happening.
We wouldn’t be in any danger of terrorist activity in this country if the government didn’t aid and abet the importation of terrorists.
Any terror attacks can also be laid at the feet of the current administration.
What SW gear?
Thanks Godzilla
Never thought we would see this day. Trump saw the 'America Last' horror before the rest of thought it could be real... but this - this - this is still shocking. I'm assuming FEMA knows North Carolina is vote critical - and they're willing to risk the lives of people living in damaged red areas of North Carolina to suppress traditional Americans' vote. It's dreadful. Worse than I thought it would become. Elon and other good people are trying to help. Pray for them.
Israel/iran update
Getting reports of a lot of jet activity over Iraq and particularly Baghdad. It is post sabbath over there and some think the activity is related town imminent Israeli strike.
Earlier additional US air refueling tankers arrived in the Middle East
Monitoring
Officially up and running on HF frequencies. Made a quick contact to someone 250 miles away (short distance relative to HF), didn’t try to do more because there was some serious competition going on (seeing who could get the most contacts in the event period). But monitoring did show i received signals from across the US and possibly into Mexico/Central America.
Globalism / Great Reset –
CNN interview
Hillary Clinton says that social media companies must censor people’s content or else “we lose total control.”
OBSERVATION - Its pretty well established that hillary was a hard core totalitarian. Here she echos the same global standard Lurch did a few days ago. Only sanctioned speech should be allowed. The unspoken assumption is that there will be punishments for those who oppose the regime.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
NYC and other major metro areas may face enlarged pro-islamic terror protests with the approach of Oct 7. There is increasing potential for rioting and vandalism.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Trump returned to Butler, Penn where he was nearly killed three months ago to kick off the final month of campaigning for the WH. Attendance was estimated by some to be close to 100,000. At the time the shots were fired, all paused to remember the murdered firefighter and the others wounded. Elon Musk also came onto the platform to emphasize that not only is the First Amendment threatened by the democrats, but the whole constitution.
Trump reportedly will be hosting a rally every day up to the election.
***
If history trends are being followed, the polling should tighten down to what is expected on election day. Key for those to look at are the internals for over sampling, registered vs likely voters, etc. I think there will be some polling firms go down with the ship though as IMHO polling will heavily tilt to trying to suppress enthusiasm for trump turn out.
On a big brush level, harris is in trouble. Compared to hillary’s polling in 2016, she is underperforming and her past seems to be catching up with her. Hillary was at that phase shown to be ahead by double digits, while harris is shown to be squeaking by at a few points.
It aint over till its over.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Kamala Harris was left repeating the same phrase after her teleprompter appeared to malfunction in an embarrassing gaffe at a Michigan rally.
The Vice President was speaking to a crowd in Flint when the system appeared to glitch.
‘Remember his number 32 today? We got 32 days until the election,’ Harris says.
Illegal Immigration –
CBS News Reports:
The Biden administration will not be extending the legal status of tens of thousands of Venezuelan migrants who were allowed to fly to the U.S. under a sponsorship program designed to reduce illegal border crossings, according to U.S. officials and internal documents obtained by CBS News.
The administration first launched the program in October 2022 to discourage Venezuelans from traveling to the U.S.-Mexico border by offering them a legal way to enter the country if American-based individuals agreed to sponsor them. It was then expanded in January 2023 to include migrants from Cuba, Haiti and Nicaragua, whose citizens were also crossing the U.S. southern border in record numbers at the time.
OBSERVATION - Interesting home stretch of the presidential campaign move. Do they expect them to self deport?
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 56 of 87 Shahed drones overnight. Odesa was hit by some that got thru.
Russia pressing the attack in Donbas, but achieving very little.
Russia lost one of its batwing ‘stealth’ drone/wingman unmanned aircraft, one of two in existence, after reportedly Russians lost control of the guidance system and they decided to shoot it down to prevent it getting into Ukraine and eventually western hands.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Ukraine has been increasing and strengthening defensive line around Pokrovsk should Ukraine have to pull back from current positions.
Russian Territory –
There was a fire in Kuzminki, after a Ukraine drone attack on the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School.
Outlook —
No real changes except that Russian is beginning to lose its race with the weather. Fall rains are starting and will soon turn the soil into a quagmire, severely restricting maneuvering.
Watching for another series of large missile strikes from Russia - they are due.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- Massive airstrikes hitting ammo dumps in S Beirut, with huge secondary explosions, called the worst night since the bombing started.
- IDF launches new operations in N Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Prime Minister Netanyahu: “About a month ago, towards the end of the destruction of the Hamas battalions in Gaza - we began fulfilling the promise I gave to the residents of the north. We killed Nasrallah and the top of Hezbollah. We killed the commanders of the Radwan force who planned to invade the Galilee and carry out a greater and more terrible massacre of our citizens than the one on October 7. Iran has twice launched hundreds of missiles at our territory, in one of the largest ballistic missile attacks in history. No country in the world would have accepted such an attack, nor would the State of Israel, and we will respond to these attacks.”
United States CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla landed in Israel yesterday to meet with Israeli defense and military officials, amid preparations in the Israeli army for a response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack
***
The Israeli military says it has reinforced security in southern Israel ahead of the anniversary of the 7 October attacks.
A statement says it is on heightened alert for threats in the region this week, and is preparing for possible “defense and offense” operations.
The IDF says extra troops have been deployed to communities close to Gaza.
A number of memorial events are planned to mark one year since Hamas launched deadly raids into southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.
***
On Saturday French President Emmanuel Macron called for a halt to arms shipments to Israel for use in Gaza. He told national broadcaster France Inter in an interview that finding a “political solution” to the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts must be a “priority” and that a full arms embargo would help create the conditions.
Netanyahu’s response was direct and to the point to the French President’s call to impose a Western arms embargo on Israel:
“We will win with or without you, but your disgrace will remain long after the victory in the war.”
Netanyahu also announced this evening on the Iranian issue:
“It is Israel’s right and duty to respond - and we will do so.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Regarding Sinwar, Qatar authorities are saying -
“He has disappeared for us too and has not made contact,” the officials were cited as saying.
***
The IDF’s 162nd Division launched a new ground operation last night in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya, the military says.
The IDF says the division’s 401st and 460th armored brigades encircled Jabaliya overnight, and troops are currently operating in the area.
The operation comes after the IDF says it has intelligence of Hamas operatives and infrastructure in the Jabaliya area, alongside efforts by the terror group to re-establish itself there.
As troops entered the area, the IDF says it carried out a wave of airstrikes and artillery shelling, targeting dozens of Hamas sites in Jabaliya, including weapon depots, tunnels, cells of operatives, and other infrastructure.
“The operation will continue as long as necessary, while systematically striking and thoroughly destroying the terror infrastructure in the area,” the IDF says.
The IDF calls on residents of the northern Gaza Strip to go south in advance of the operation.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli military announced that it carried out a series of targeted air strikes on Hezbollah sites, including “many weapons depots and other militant infrastructure,” targeting the southern suburbs with more than 30 strikes, the echoes of which were heard in Beirut.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati called on Sunday for “pressure on Israel” to “ceasefire” after a night of violent raids that rocked the southern suburbs of Beirut, a stronghold of Hezbollah. “We demand pressure on Israel to commit to a ceasefire and implement Resolution 1701 immediately,” Mikati said in a statement.
Israeli media reports the killing of Mohammad Anisi, one of the leaders of Hezbollah’s precision missile project, in an airstrike on Beirut
Lebanese media: Hezbollah senior official Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyed refuses to assume leadership of Hezbollah, and requests to travel to Tehran in order to devote himself to worship in Iran.
***
Observers are noting that Hezbollah appears to be trying to avoid decisive engagements with the IDF.
Israeli sources reported that Hezbollah is trying to keep its forces at a distance and will withdraw shortly after making contact with the IDF.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
An Israeli raid targeted a convoy of four-wheel drive vehicles leaving a car manufacturing plant in the Hasya area, on the outskirts of Homs city.
A massive explosion struck the Hasiya Industrial City, South of Homs-city from an Israeli airstrike
Explosions in area of Qusseir (South-West Homs) following Israeli raids on the area bordering Lebanon
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
France calling for and international embargo on military supplies to Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel continues to hammer the Hezbollah district in S Beirut, hitting large ammo storage sites with a spectacular display of secondary explosions.
In S Lebanon, Israel is growing the ground assault and clearing the Hezbollah prepared positions. As noted above, it appears Hezbollah doesn’t want to be fully engaged, knowing they are out gunned, and are likely trying to stage an organized retreat under the cover of ambushes and ATGM attacks. These tactics are somewhat similar to what they did in 2008, but in this case, Israel appears to have anticipated it and are more effectively countering those tactics.
The tactics of Hezbollah in S Lebanon suggest that on a tactical level, there is still some level of effective command and control. However, as initial action reports come in, IDF is attriting those leaders as well, which is probably why they now don’t want to become decisively engaged.
With growing push of Israeli forces into S Lebanon, the options for Hezbollah to fall back will grow slimmer and slimmer. They will have to try to stand their ground at some point.
It is almost untraceable at this stage, the numbers of senior Hamas, Hezbollah and IRGC leaders Israel takes out on a daily basis. It has reached a point where some like Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyed are running away from being appointed leader of Hezbollah.
Big action in N Gaza but not unexpected. Israel continues to let elements of Hamas regroup, pulling the remnants into a defined area, then raiding them to take them out.
Jumpy nerves in the areas around Iran. Last night alerts concerning the observation of an unusual number of jets over Baghdad, combined with NOTAMS for Iran caused jitters that the awaited counter strike was imminent. Fog of war.
However, the general consensus is that Israel will be hitting and very soon. Besides the speculation that near the top of Israel’s list are oil & gas facilities, other targets include missile bases, presidential complex, Khamenei’s compound & Revolutionary Guards command centers in Tehran.
Delivery of destruction may bring a few surprises, like I suspect that Israeli subs operating in the gulf will use cruise missiles - potentially on Kharg Island as well as other targets. Israel may use ballistic missiles of its own as Iran lacks any real ABM capabilities.
Again, I see tomorrow as a very symbolic day to launch such an attack.
Iran –
The Iranian Civil Aviation Authority has issued a NOTAM (Notice-to-Air Missions) for significant portions of its western airspace, indicating that commercial flight paths will be closed every night from 1700 to 0130 UTC due to “Military Exercise.” Thru Oct 9.
Misc of Note –
More fury surrounding Helene and related.
Conservative commentator Breanna Morello accused the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) of diverting disaster relief funds to address the ongoing influx of illegal immigration.
FEMA’s rumor control central went out an called this ‘false’. Until Morello posted supporting documentation from FEMA itself.
The fact that FEMA has wasted money with their Rumor Control Central, point us to an old adage - where there is smoke, there is fire. There are plenty of leftist supporters more than willing to present a false narrative on a wide range of subjects, that these few influences claiming to refute the massive numbers of first hand accounts by residents of the hit regions is flat out suspect. Staged photo ops in peripheral areas. Even one claimed to have penetrated into the heart of damaged area actually in many ways confirmed the reports of no FEMA presence.
BTW a new storm is gathering strength and targeting central/southern Florida.