CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
***
Five U.S. Secret Service employees have been placed on administrative leave as investigations continue into the botched security effort that allowed the July 13 assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump’s life, which killed one man and wounded Trump and two others.
“One member of Trump’s personal protective team and four members of the Secret Service’s Pittsburgh Field Office, including the special agent in charge, have been placed on leave,” according to Fox News Online, noting a recently revealed security communications breakdown on July 13:
“Text messages sent by local law enforcement responsible for monitoring the rally flagged Crooks to colleagues as suspicious at least 90 minutes before he opened fire. Despite this, he was still able to shoot at Trump and the crowd.”
However, Secret Service agents interviewed by RealClearPolitics say management by their leaders, not the agents on the ground at the rally, allowed the assassination attempt to take place:
“Other current Secret Service agents, including one who requested anonymity for fear of reprisal, pinned the failures at Butler directly on Rowe and other top leaders alleged ties because their decisions leading up to the July 13 rally set the rank-and-file agents up for failure.
“‘Leadership’s mismanagement of technology and personnel are what led to the failures in Butler, but they are not the ones being held accountable,’ a source in the Secret Service community told RealClearPolitics.”
OBSERVATION - All this continues to raise multiple red flags that Crooks was assisted in some manner that day and that what we see as a bungled protection plan was actually deliberate.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Fed Chair Powell is signaling that rate cuts are in the future. Anticipation is 1/4 point, though some think that in the light of the massive jobs revision, there may be a larger reduction.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Yesterday, a political earthquake rolled into he 2024 election and deflated the ‘joy’ balloon of the DNC. That was the scathing rebuke of the democrat party by RFK Jr and his endorsement of trump for president.
RFK Jr.: “The DNC and its media organs engineered a surge of popularity for Vice President Harris based upon - nothing. No policies, no interviews, no debates. Only smoke and mirrors.”
He also hammered harris, saying that he first went to her to discuss his participation - she wouldn’t give him the time of day. He then did the same to Trump who immediately offered him a seat at the table.
Democrat response was vicious and attempted to destroy his character - and not the valid basis of his complaints, which he pretty clearly enunciated in his press conference.
Trump later presented JFK to the crowd at a rally in Arizona - bringing the house down.
IMHO, Kennedy’s move sucked a lot of the hype and hoopla of the harris campaign coming out of the DNC and forced them into a defensive mode far sooner than what they wanted. General, but not universal, view is that this endorsement will significantly help Trump with disaffected democrats and independents. It is bringing the race back to issues and policies and not an emotional ‘vibe’ and other feel goodies.
Kennedy is one of the last old school democrats. His uncle, JFK would by many means be considered to be a conservation by todays standards - showing just how far to the left the democrat party has run in the past decades.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia’s heavy infantry losses in Ukraine have led to growing problems in obtaining new soldiers. Many Russian military age men have either left the country or gone into hiding to avoid death or injury as a soldier in Ukraine. In the last year Russia tried offering larger and larger amounts of cash for those who would join. This didn’t work because it was common knowledge that the chances of any soldier going to Ukraine and returning unharmed were low.
This led to the recent practice of army recruiting officials raiding businesses looking for Russian men or foreign workers who have avoided registering their status with the government. Businesses have gone along with hiring, and concealing, unregistered men because the heavy losses in Ukraine have caused a growing labor shortage in Russia.
In addition to the raids, which are resisted by employers desperate to keep their operations going, recruiters also stop military age men on the street and demand to see their identification and documents related to their military status. Men who have already served can only be returned to the military if they volunteer. Few do despite the large cash bonuses offered.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/202408240121.aspx#gsc.tab=0
Economic Impact –
The oil depot in the Rostov region has been burning for the seventh day following a Ukraine drone strike and is likely to be a complete loss. The fire is beginning to spread into nearby residential areas, still out of control.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
US citizens in Ukraine being urged to leave the country immediately and by all means. The US believes that Russia is going to attack government facilities and civilian targets in Ukraine in the coming days.
200 people evacuated after a Ukrainian drone strike on ammunition depot in Voronezh region, — governor. State of emergency declared in three settlements in Ostrogozhsky district. 200 people evacuated
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukraine is still effectively utilizing maneuver to bypass strong points, encircling and eventually eliminating them. The pace is down largely due to the forces reaching their maximum extension.
Outlook —
Ukraine had a pretty good week, but if the US embassy warning is a valid indicator, it would appear that Russian is set to launch an new round of massive drone and missile strikes large enough to overwhelm Ukraine ADA assets. Prime civilian targets will be the power grid, with winter approaching, no power means a lot of cold Ukrainians.
A massive Russia strike may be the last barrier to US allowing Ukraine to strike deeper Russian targets. Talks have been going on for months to that end. You don’t fight a war with one arm tied behind your back, which is what the west has essentially done with Ukraine - can’t touch Russia or they may get mad. However, with Ukraine drones hitting as deep as Moscow and ground invasion of Kursk, Russian threats have been shown to be hollow.
Russian efforts in Donbas continue to plod along with Russia doing everything it can to maintain the initiative while at the same time shifting reserve forces to Kursk. There are some warning that a break through would result in the loss of the Donbas, Russian forces are probably too extended to exploit it very well.
Ukraine will not be removed from Kursk for quite a while.
Europe / NATO General –
Germany is investigating drone flights, suspected to be Russian surveillance drones, flying over key nuclear infrastructure in the north of the country.
The drones, which have not yet been identified, have been spotted flying over nuclear power facilities in Brunsbüttel, a city north of Hamburg near the coast of the North Sea, according to German newspaper Bild.
The tabloid reported that the Flensburg public prosecutor’s office, which opened an investigation into the drone flights, said that they were looking for “agent activity for sabotage purposes in connection with repeated drone flights.”
The Schleswig-Holstein state criminal police agency suspects that the drones are Russian Orlan-10s, previously used by Russia for surveillance and espionage, Bild said.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-drones-germany-nato-nuclear-plant-1943384
OBSERVATION - This would be a huge security breach if true. There are many other RC aircraft that could be modified for recon and not necessarily need an Orlan to do the trick.
ISRAEL –
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Standard air and artillery strikes across Gaza
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A barrage of some 10 rockets was launched from Lebanon at the northern city of Kiryat Shmona overnight, the Israeli army says. Some of the rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome, while others impacted the city.There are no reports of injuries.
Israeli Broadcasting Authority reports between 90 and 100 rockets have been fired from Lebanese territory towards the north of the country in the past 24 hours.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Overnight in Syria, 4 areas were bombed by Israel. Area of Um Haratheen in West Homs: probably an air defense position. 3 strikes in Hama countryside which targeted the 47th Brigade (biggest explosion) in the South Mounts and area of Khattab (North-West of Hama-city)
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi’s taking a lot of rhetorical heat for hitting and setting on fire a Greek tanker.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Tempo decreasing a little in Gaza, staying moderately high against Hezbollah. Eyes remain fixed on Hezbollah / Iran’s threatened retaliation attack. Hezbollah can act with little warning. Iran may have units in readiness, but current OSINT suggests that they would have some additional actions that would be detectable prior to launch.
I’ve seen rumors that Iran is trying to put together a larger coalition of supporters, beyond its proxy groups, with a goal of actually invading Israel. Pretty slim pickings IMHO. Syria is throughly tied up with its efforts to defeat separatist and keep ISIS at bay. The Gulf states are unlikely to help much, if at all, since most of them hate Iran. Turkey may be one that Iran could work with, having threatened Israel with invasion in recent months. Even Russia(!) who has a military presence in the region supporting Assad and has a growing relationship with Iran for arms and technology. Such an assembly does not appear to be ready any time soon (talking years), but the transjectrory of the events in the ME does indicate that such a move may eventually come about.
Syria -
Iran and Syria FMs had a phone call where Iranian top diplomat said Tehran will continue to support Syria under the new government. They invited each other to visit capitals
Black Swans -
There are a whole flock of the critters out there, more now than ever.
- Political related chaos
- Terror attacks
- Illegal crime surge / growth of gangs
- Economic collapse with multiple scenarios such as stagflation, recession and depression.
Just to list a few. Problem is they are once again starting to merge towards a window associated with the election. Clearly our country is at one of those crossroads in history. Unfortunately IMHO, either path is mined with disastrous potential events.
One needs to war-game (or as I call it - apacatalk) the scenario(s) to see what can be done now to mitigate their effects to yourself and your family. My family is in the process of review and action. Yours should be too.
6 stages of a assassination attempt:
Wild Enthusiasm.
Disillusionment.
Total Confusion.
Search for the Guilty.
Punishment of the Innocent.
Praise and honor for the Non-Participants...
BUMP
Alert.
This just starting to come out.
Flights to and from Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv due to the threat of a large-scale missile and rocket attack by Hezbollah is a significant escalation.
We will know more by morning.
Wild night - see more under ISRAEL.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Markets and economists are looking forward to the Sept Fed meeting with strong expectations of a significant rate cut.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads Democrat Kamala Harris by 3 points in a national head-to-head battle, bolstered by a bump from independent voters, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday.
Trump leads Harris 49% to 46%, according to the survey.
In the 6-way, Trump’s lead among independents is 9 points, 48% to 39%, with Kennedy getting 7% support, according to the poll.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/rasmussen-poll-donald-trump-kamala-harris/2024/08/22/id/1177562/
OBSERVATION - The massive polling machines of the left have been working overtime to place trump down by nearly double digits (remember the polls with hillary about the same period of the election cycle). One may argue about Rasmussen’s accuracy, but they are not necessarily one with a track record of oversampling. As I note in my axiom above, polls at this stage are designed by many to influence. Post labor day, the pollsters are generally forced to deal with reality again.
NOTE - this is based on survey BEFORE Kennedy dropped and committed support to Trump, so it is important to watch the migration pattern of the 7% of independents for Kennedy.
***
The knives have come out in force against RFK and his endorsement of trump. Condemnation is also coming from never-trumpers. Must have hit a lot of sore spots.
Biden / Harris Watch –
With the major escalation in the fight between Israel and Hezbollah, biden is on yet another vacation while harris tramps around the country. WHO IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?
Illegal Immigration –
biden’s resurrection of the ‘stay in Mexico’ policy has apparently lead to a slow down in border crossings. Indicators are that this may not last for long depending on the state of the presidential race. The prospect of mass amnesty may well spike illegal crossings to astronomical levels.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.
RUMINT –
Russian tourists in Crimea report that Ukrainian F-16s struck targets in Crimea for the first time ever this morning.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Air defense shot down 8 of 9 Shahed drones overnight. Numerous other Russian missile strikes in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine announced the development of a jet-missile drone capable of striking fast and deep into Russia
The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence claimed it successfully struck a field ammunition depot near the village of Ostrogozhsk in Russia’s Voronezh region. The depot contained over 5,000 tons of ammunition, including artillery and tank shells, small arms ammunition, and surface-to-air missiles. Videos released on social media show massive explosions.
Russia continues to press the attack in the Donbas region, clawing out small gains at high cost.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukraine OPSEC has ramped up again too with a lot of RUMINT from Russian milbloggers that Russian forces are being out maneuvered, cut off and eliminated again.
Outlook —
On the ground, things are pretty much at a status quo, no major actions appear to be pending. RUMINT of a second Ukraine incursion into Russia could change that, but it has been floating around for weeks unacted on.
Russian launching a campaign of ballistic / cruise missiles and drone is still in the cards, but no apparent timeline for such an attack. It has been a considerable amount of time since the last one.
Lastly, if F16s were playing over Crimea, it could mark a signifiant change in the combat there.
Europe / NATO General –
German Bild: Police arrest Syrian from refugee center after Solingen stabbing
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel launched a massive preemptive strike that severely blunted a Hezbollah missile/rocket/drone attack in revenge for retaliation for the death of Fuad Shukr.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
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Israeli government issued a series of new censorship regulations for media that includes the damage caused by rocket attacks to “strategic national infrastructure or to military bases.” Reporters need to refer them to the media office before reporting on them to avoid causing any “harm to Israeli forces on the ground”. “This morning attacks by Hezbollah has the potential to escalate into a widespread, multi-front conflict.” The decree warns
***
RUMINT - Sinwar is reportedly running out of supplies and places to hide and is urgently seeking some sort of cease fire or significant military support from Hezbollah in order to survive.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli security officials told the IDF: Hezbollah planned to launch an attack of hundreds of rockets and missiles towards the center of the country, at 5:00AM. About half an hour earlier - around 4:30AM - the air force’s preemptive strike began, which included about 100 fighter jets that thwarted the threat within minutes, and prevented the broad attack into the country. More than 200 targets were attacked in a short time in southern Lebanon. (NOTE - IAF is continuing to hammer targets in Lebanon)
100-150 (some estimate as high as 250) ballistic missiles were specifically targeted at Tel Aviv. Part of a 6,000 Long-Range Missiles, Rockets, and Drones assault planned by Hezbollah. The preemptive strikes by Israel appear to have destroyed of several thousand missiles and rockets along with the launchers necessary to fire them.
Some of the Hezbollah targets were supposed to be the Kirya, Ben Gurion Airport, and the power station in Hadera, among other strategic and civilian targets.
Hezbollah did manage to fire 200 - 300 rockets towards Israel. Military observers were noting that these barrages were “improvised and imprecise”.
Israel navy intercepted several Hezbollah drones overnight, as it seems that it tried to repeat the Houthis success in their attack on Tel Aviv last month, which came from the sea
Hezbollah says it has completed its response to the killing of the terror group’s military commander Fuad Shukr for today, hinting that further responses could come tomorrow. The terror group claims that the explosive drones it launched from Lebanon flew to their intended targets in Israel. Earlier, Hezbollah also claimed to have fired more than 320 rockets at northern Israel.
Israeli army Broadcasting Authority reports no military bases or strategic targets in central Israel were damaged.
The Israeli army Home Front Command has lifted restrictions issued this morning on the area from Tel Aviv and northward. Restrictions remain in communities along the Lebanon border and in the Golan Heights
Israel is expected to continue heavy ‘preemptive’ air strikes across Lebanon for at least the rest of today.
Lebanese Prime Minister calls for ministerial emergency committee to meet to discuss developments in escalation in the south
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egypt warns of the dangers of opening a new war front in Lebanon after Israel-Hezbollah escalation, and stresses the importance of preserving Lebanon’s “stability and sovereignty and sparing it the dangers of the region slipping into a state of comprehensive instability”
——— FORECAST ————————-
I’ve repeatedly said that Israeli intel in Lebanon was unbelievable. Based on just the targeted assassinations alone - on nearly a daily basis - Israel has Hezbollah’s number. But they are through and as i’ve indicated, they have likely been very busy locating and categorizing the thousands of Hezbollah sites. Overnight this payed off big.
For Israel to coordinate a preemptive strike of this magnitude, they must have had much earlier warning, to maximize the preemptive strikes and take out the attack before it even got off the ground. 100 aircraft were coordinated time on target - and that takes a degree of readiness/planning. The also must have had a solid intel on the timing of the attack, masterfully preempted with as little as 15 minutes prior to launch.
The fact that IAF nailed the ballistic missiles is key in this mission. They commonly have TELs (Transporter, Erector, Launchers) that are very elusive to find, let alone kill. The first gulf war SCUD hunters proved that out. The lost not only the missiles, but the launchers as well, and Israeli intel negated the historical shoot and scoot operation of those systems. Also dramatically reduces further missile launch capability - no launcher, no capability to launch missiles.
We’ll learn more about Israel’s extended airstrikes ongoing later today/tomorrow.
Bottom line - Hezbollah got caught with their pants down due to poor OPSEC and very likely poor leadership coordination due to heavy losses of senior leadership. They were embarrassed bad.
Iran must be seriously rethinking its retaliatory plans. Hezbollah had the best surprise attack capability and it was quickly neutralized and has suffered severe losses. Israeli intelligence operations are deep within Iran as well and any indicators of an impending attack stands a strong chance of being detected as well. The action against Hezbollah sends the message to Iran that similar can happen to them as well.
Analysis was that Hezbollah would either act alone - or as a first wave that would make Iran’s attack more effective. Israel’s defensive posture has not been degraded and any attack by Iran would be absent the Hezbollah support it counted on.
Looking forward, Israel is poised to enter Lebanon and will sooner or later. Hezbollah’s actions in the coming hours/days may provide that trigger for Israel to do so.
If anything, the failed attack by Hezbollah has pushed Iran’s promised attack back. IRGC Chief-Commander Salami’s assessment (see under Iran below) may have shifted significantly.
Iran –
“You will hear good news about Iran’s revenge,” IRGC Chief-Commander Hossein Salami told a crowd of people during a visit to a border area in western Iran, when asked about Tehran’s long-awaited attack on Israel in retaliation for Ismail Haniyeh’s killing.
***
Head of Khash (Iran) intelligence, was assassinated in front of his house. The Sunni Islamist militant group Jaish ul-Adl has claimed responsibility for this attack. Jaish ul-Adl, which operates primarily in Iran’s southeastern regions, has been involved in various violent activities and is known for its opposition to the Iranian government.