CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
A smaller than expected pro-hamas protest managed to partially breach the fencing around the Chicago convention center. Only a small number passed through before police were able to reestablish security. Those who entered were arrested.
More protests are expected throughout the week.
OBSERVATION - The lack of turnout is interesting given the amount of build up. Only half of the 40K protestors reportedly showed up. Lack of interest or lack of support? or some other factor.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates ???
FoxNews Sept 4th (dropped by harris)
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
DNC convention all week
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
The 2024 Democratic Party Platform opens with a “land acknowledgment,” stating that the United States of America was established on territory stolen from the Native American tribes. “We honor the communities native to this continent, and recognize that our country was built on Indigenous homelands,” the document states, adding that the Democratic Nation Committee “pay[s] our respects to the millions of Indigenous people throughout history who have protected our lands, waters, and animals.”
The “traditional homelands” of the American Indians changed hands between the native tribes over generations of warfare long before the arrival of the first European settlers. Much of the Great Sioux Nation, which warred with the United States through the 19th century, was established on territory the Sioux had stolen from the Crow tribe, for instance.
OBSERVATION - This furthers the drive of ‘decolonization’ - code word for increasing hatred and racism directed against whites in our society.
***
Walz was introduced at one of the caucuses yesterday as “Command Sergeant Major” - a continuation of the Stolen Valor lie. He did nothing to correct the statement.
Biden / Harris Watch –
In a final insult, biden’s address was pushed out of primetime and into the red-eye slot near midnight.
Some pundits indicate it was part of an attempt to decouple harris from the biden administration’s reign of policy blunders - which she was an active participant of.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024
FBI and other U.S. intelligence agencies have confirmed that Iran was behind the hacking of former President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.
Illegal Immigration –
Kamala Harris’ DNC platform pledges to pass the U.S. Citizenship Act. What is it? The most radical amnesty bill ever written. Amnesty for human traffickers & gang members, no welfare restrictions for migrants, lets deportees return, & worse.
https://x.com/the_roblaw/status/1825618965336309895
OBSERVATION - We all knew this was coming folks. The massive replacement conspiracy now hatching before our eyes. No wonder many congressional democrats were wanting to keep the platform and policy goals secret until after the election. The harris team must be feeling pretty cocky to start releasing this kind of material.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 25 Shahed drones and 3 missiles overnight
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of New York(Novhorodske) in Donetsk region.
The oil facility of Proletarsk was hit by Ukraine overnight. The level of destruction seen in released videos indicate that it sustained a fatal hit.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
NOTE - Much of the OSINT is coming from Russian based reports. Ukraine still holding to very tight OPSEC. Situation on the ground is still confused and changing minute by minute.
***
Ukrainian FPV drones have targeted pontoon bridge over Sejm river in Kursk region. There is also evidence that a new pontoon bridge has been established in the same region.
A low-res “Planet” satellite image taken, Aug. 19th, shows that the Russian pontoon bridge between Zvannoye and Glushkovo in Kursk oblast is gone, with smoke rising 500 meters away from where it used to be, on the ‘Russian’ bank
Ukraine has reportedly made only marginal gains, this largely due to the stretch of its limited forces and the growing need to shift to potential defensive operations. Active advancements continue to the southeast as well as parallel to the Sejm River.
Outlook —
Now in the latter half of August, but Ukraine is already prepping for a potential nasty winter due to the destruction of so much of the electrical generation capacity that Russia inflicted earlier this year. I expect that Ukraine will continue its largely successful assault on Russian petroleum facilities, which has impacted as much as 30% of its supplies.
Russian advances in Donbas are increasingly concerning. The recent capture of New York a key example. In the past, such urban areas have been a key choke point to Russian forces, who now appear to have figured out a formula to push through them. However, continued pressure in Kursk is bleeding off reserve forces Russia needs to exploit these successes.
Russian strategic bombers have been strangely silent for months now, suggesting that Russia is trying to preserve cruse missiles they carry for a later, massive strike. Russia has been pressing its deep game using primary Shahed drones and occasionally tactical missiles.
I see evidence of major developments from ground operations by either side at this stage. If Ukraine is hiding a second offensive corps, that could change rapidly.
Russia continues to burn through its forces in eastern Ukraine at a pace that indicates it won’t be able to sustain the level of offensive operations for much longer.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Bodies of six hostages killed by Hamas recovered in Gaza tunnel.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas: Biden and Blinken’s statements are misleading claims and do not reflect our true position, which is keen to reach a ceasefire
***
The Israel Defense Force has announced that in a Joint Operation with Shin Bet, they have successfully recovered the bodies of six hostages who were kidnapped on October 7th and later murdered by Hamas in the Gaza Strip, with the bodies being discovered in a tunnel beneath the city of Khan Yunis in southern Gaza. The bodies include 79-Year-Old Haim Perry from Nir Oz, 80-Year-Old Yoram Metzger from Nir Oz, 79-Year-Old Avraham Monder from Nir Oz, 51-Year-Old Nadav Popplewell from Nirim, 34-Year-Old Yagev Buchshtav from Nirim, and finally the 75-Year-Old Polish-Israeli Historian Alexander Dancyg from Nir Oz.
Of the six hostages, only Munder had not yet been declared dead by the IDF. Peri, Metzger and Popplewell were declared dead in June.
***
The largest hospital in northern Israel has created the biggest underground hospital in the world, and is gearing up for what could be an all-out war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The three-floor, $140 million Fortified Underground Emergency Hospital was constructed following the Second Lebanon War with the terrorist organization in 2006, when the Iranian proxy fired about 70 missiles on this northern port city over a month, shaking the hospital in an era before the Iron Dome aerial-defense system was in place.
“We made a commitment that this scenario cannot happen again,” recalled hospital director Professor Michael Halberthal during a tour of the facility on Sunday.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-45/
***
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant ordered the Israel Defense Forces to recall some 15,000 reservists who had been released from active service in the past years but are still under 35 years old to boost the army’s manpower reserves, the IDF said in a statement.
“In light of an assessment of the situation and the extent of the activities of the regular and reserve forces, and as part of a process planned by the IDF to increase the pool of servicemen, the defense minister ordered to call back into service those who were reservists and were exempted from service in the past due to the reduction of forces, and who are still at the mandatory age for service,” the IDF stated.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/gallant-idf-reservists/2024/08/20/id/1177155/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli army says it carried out an airstrike against Hamas operatives at a command room embedded within a school in Gaza City. According to the military, Hamas was using the command room at the Mustafa Hafez School to plan and carry out attacks against troops in Gaza and against Israel
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Somewhere between 60 to 90 rocket launches towards northern Israel overnight, multiple impacts in open areas and interceptions, fires began
The Hezbollah confirms the death of Hussein Ali Hussein Suleiman in an Israeli army drone strike in southern Lebanon’s Deir Qanoun yesterday. The above mention rocket attack likely associated with the death. That has been the typical pattern of late.
IAF targeted a number of Hezbollah ammo depots overnight. Dozens of spectacular secondary explosions seen in the northern Lebanese city of Baalbek, suggesting a major depot has been hit. Additional strikes have also been reported in Deir Seryan and Tayba in southern Lebanon. Another depot was hit near Tyre.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Israeli, Egyptian and U.S. officials met in Cairo on Sunday and Monday to discuss the Phildelphi corridor. On Netanyahu’s orders, the Israeli side presented a map that showed Israel reducing some of its forces but still deploying them all along the corridor, the Israeli officials said. The Egyptians rejected that plan. “The talks in Cairo were futile. We are definitely stuck,” one official told
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to prepare the battle field as well as grow its forces. 15,000 reserve call up is an indicator of build up to ground offensive operations. However, it will take time to get the call up on equipment, deployed and battle ready - a factor that suggests that the Israeli offensive into S Lebanon is not a imminent as it seems. Hospital preps indicate anticipation of major actions by Hezbollah with further preparation for the overall fight in S Lebanon.
IAF targeting more ammo dumps. The ones hit unleashed spectacular secondary explosions. The delay in Hezbollah’s strike against Israel has given Israel license to almost leisurely pick apart ammo dumps as well as targeting leadership and command / control facilities. In this it is evident that Hezbollah is still fighting the last war, and hasn’t anticipated newer Israeli tactics and capabilities, especially in the field of their collection of actionable intelligence.
Friction with Iran continues to produce rumors that Hezbollah is ready to break and launch an uncoordinated (with Iran) rocket/missile assault on Israel. Unconfirmed reports that IRGC leaders posts on various social media sites is being met with put downs by other posters for its long delay. It has now been over 20 days and Iran has only responded with bluster.
Another driver of Hezbollah is possibly the realization that Israel’s continued air assaults on their facilities and leaders may soon put a cap on their ability to launch a sizable attack. Hence a drive to launch while they still can.
Right now, Hezbollah has the capability to launch at a moments notice. Evidence from Iran is that there is some degree of reluctance in attacking, largely driven by fear of the retaliatory strikes by Israel that could destroy its oil and nuclear programs.
Iran –
Iran hosted a meeting with its proxies in the region on Thursday in Tehran. Attendees included Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis of Yemen, and various Iraqi militias. Purpose was to discuss response to assassination of Ismail Haniya
Misc of Note –
When I began prepping over 15 years ago, there were an abundance of web sites offering all kinds of advice and recommendations. They were putting out fresh ideas and thoughts on nearly a daily basis.
Today, many of those sites have shut down or just recycle older posts. Is this because interest has died down? I doubt it as polling and other studies indicate that prepping has grown in recent years, especially post wuhan.
All I have to say is to continue to research and mark those that contain useful information. Consider it as ‘advice’ and not the must do x, y or z that some sites post. Everyones situation is different and one size just doesn’t fit all.
It it my humble opinion that the window of opportunity to prepare for a level of chaos we’ve never seen in our lifetimes is rapidly coming to a close. Just too many threats to our country and way of life to ignore - and they are all interrelated, creating potential domino effects which will make matters worse. Don’t delay readiness. Want tips? I’ll gladly help, just Freepmail me.
Thanks Godzilla
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is now warning countries across the globe to prepare for “an era of shock events” as the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches.
From the WEF:
Briefly, here are three shock events to consider that may impact global stability:
- A new global extremist group emerges: with the world distracted with multiple major wars and leadership in decline, this could be an opportunistic time for a new extremist group to make its mark – and maybe not face as many consequences. Perhaps, it will even leverage AI tools to kick off a new phase of terrorism.
- A cyber pandemic – that is intentional: the massive global IT outage in July was not terrorism, but simply a faulty software update from a cybersecurity firm. Yet, it cost Fortune 500 companies $5.4 billion in damages and shut down flights, banks, hospitals, retailers and other services worldwide. Imagine if a bad actor did this – on purpose and an even grander scale?
- Climate change claims its first island nation in the pos-pandemic era: The COP28 plan to phase out fossil fuels may take decades and it’s unclear if world leaders will follow through. What’s more probable is that in the meantime certain island nations (who emit only 0.3% of global emissions) will keep fighting their cause, whether it is through international law or new climate funds. But, if these islands do succumb to climate change, sinking a lot faster than we expect, how will climate activists and world leaders react?
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/08/4-global-risks-to-look-out-for-in-the-post-pandemic-era/
OBSERVATION - I find this list interesting. First, no listing of an actual plandemic inspire of all the rumblings about bird flu so far this year.
Extremist group? Pretty vague as the existing ones pretty well cover the market. Or are they referring to the patriots in the US?
Cyber ‘pandemic’ - now this is one that the WEF has been ‘warning’ about for a while. Mostly in context of hitting financial institutions.
Finally global warming threats. They think islands will start sinking.
Bottom line to me is this may represent some sort of telegraphing disasters planned to disrupt the world and leverage into acceptance of a global ruling authority. With the exception of the cyberthreat, they seem kinda out there.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Antifa aligned elements of pro-Hamas rioters moved on the Israeli consulate in Chicago last night that resulted in a violent confrontation with police. The Chicago police, however, had a significant numerical advantage over the rioters
A group called Behind Enemy Lines is apparently behind the mass demonstration, but is not affiliated with another anti-Israel group that marched on the DNC on Monday night.
OBSERVATION - This was another relatively small group, though highly violently oriented. Police were able to encircle them and begin arrests.
So far the pro-hamas protestors and antifa have been unable to muster a group sizable to force the police back. It seems that their call for action fell on passive ears.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will downward revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by up to 1 million. This means that all “beats” recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US job market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit.
Economic analysts at Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo said job growth data revisions due out today will likely show job growth from March 2023 to March 2024 was at least 600,000 jobs lower than the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported.
”A large negative revision would indicate that the strength of hiring was already fading before this past April,” Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Aubrey Woessner said.
According to Bloomberg, payrolls growth between April 2023 to March 2024 was up to 1 million weaker than previously reported.
There are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure, but a downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer — and perhaps more so — than originally thought. The final numbers are due early next year.
OBSERVATION - This is huge. The fed had been toting the job market for its decisions to keep rates high - and now caught believing their own propaganda. Being off by such a large number is either a deliberate falsification of the numbers or a clown crew on incompetents running the show - or both.
The fake numbers that are initially released month after month have given the American people the impression that the economy is performing far better than it actually is.
It also raises the probability that the ‘soft landing’ the fed and treasury dept have been preaching is about to hit rock bottom in a nasty way.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Biden ordered U.S. forces to prepare for possible nuclear confrontations with Russia, China, and North Korea — NYT
According to the New York Times; U.S. Biden in March approved a highly classified document regarding the United States’s Nuclear Strategy, dubbed the “Nuclear Employment Guidance” which for the first time seeks to reorient the U.S. deterrence strategy from Russia to China, and their growing nuclear arsenal. The document also seeks to prepare the United States for a possible coordinated nuclear confrontation from Russia, China, and North Korea.
OBSERVATION - There are some alarmist opinions out there, but I for one think that a rethink involving China and even NK is long over due. Cold war era thinking and technology of the era had both countries on the periphery of our threat envelope. Now things have significantly changed.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC
In recent months, local health authorities have conducted emergency infection disease response drills across China.
On Aug. 15, Dingxi City in Gansu Province, a district in Yancheng City in Jiangsu Province, and Lingchuan County in Shanxi Province carried out emergency drills for the outbreak of “pneumonia of unknown cause,” according to an official notice.
A staff member of the Gansu provincial government’s health hotline told the media on Aug. 15 that the national-level authorities had ordered officials in 10 provinces to conduct emergent infectious disease drills by the end of August.
The ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) first used the term “pneumonia of unknown cause” in 2003 to describe the SARS outbreak in China before it was officially named; it was also used when COVID-19 first broke out in Wuhan, Hubei Province, in late 2019.
Drills have been conducted since June in more than a dozen provinces and regions, including the nation’s capital, Beijing, according to notices issued by local health departments and Chinese media reports. This is the first official annual infectious disease emergency drill since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sean Lin, a microbiologist and assistant professor in the biomedical science department at Feitian College, said that in the context of the sluggish economy and high unemployment rate, “this kind of drill may be a special political signal,“ and that ”the authorities are trying to achieve more control over society on the grounds of health.”
OBSERVATION - These latest drills are the largest since the wuhan plandemic broke in 2019-2020. Is this preparation for a real thing coming down? Hard to say.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
DNC convention all week
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Well, official harris absolutely won’t debate under a Fox format - so only two debates.
Kamala Harris just endorsed Biden’s capital gains tax proposal for her campaign…
45% long-term capital gains tax. By far the highest in history.
Combined with state taxes, many states will be well over 50%.
California: 59%
New Jersey: 55.3%
Oregon: 54.5%
Minnesota: 54.4%
New York: 53.4%
Included in the biden proposal is a 25% tax on unrealized gains.
OBSERVATION - Some harris spinmeisters are trying to claim harris hasn’t endorsed the unrealized gains tax - but in her clear endorsement of biden’s plan, such a tax is part and parcel. Little wonder key democrat leaders want to keep the democrat policy plans under wraps until after the election.
***
The Democratic National Convention (DNC) published guidance that urges food vendors to serve plant-based options or “lower-emission” meat.
The DNC’s sustainability guidance for food vendors serving customers at the convention in Chicago suggests that they should “offer low-emission menu choices,” including plant-based options, and “prioritize” chicken where possible because of its lower carbon intensity. Environmental activists and institutions like the United Nations have consistently asserted that reforming agricultural practices and decreasing red meat consumption are key to bringing down emissions and fighting climate change.
Additionally, the DNC is recommending the purchase of “renewable energy certificates,” or credits, to “measure and mitigate the impact of the energy used to heat, cool, and power venues and hotels.” (i.e. carbon credits)
OBSERVATION - Where’s the beef! Nah, let them eat bugs
Biden / Harris Watch –
Lots of rumors that biden may slip in a payback for his treatment by democrats and of late by harris.
Illegal Immigration –
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced the start of President Biden’s “parole in place” program for illegal immigrant spouses and step-children of U.S. citizens, which will allow about 500,000 illegal immigrants to apply for permanent residency beginning this week.
***
According to the Inspector General for the Department of Homeland Security, the number appears to be over 300,000 unaccompanied children who have disappeared into the United States, although there is some uncertainty because ICE and other agencies in the federal government apparently don’t communicate on such matters.
OBSERVATION - This is a crisis of major magnitude. Of late, child trafficking has grown to be a major crime profit center, and the US govt is potentially the largest child trafficker in the world.
Russia -
*****
Russian Foreign Ministry: We warn of Latvia’s growing involvement in the armed conflict in Ukraine
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russians have been left baffled after President Vladimir Putin deployed his so-called “space troops” to defend the Kursk region due to a manpower shortage amid a Ukrainian incursion.
The deployment of temporary motorized rifle of Russia’s Aerospace Forces to the Kursk region was first reported by independent investigative Russian outlet Important Stories.
The unit, created between May and June, consists of personnel from security and logistics companies, engineers, mechanics, some officers, and servicemen from a Russian spaceport. There are also personnel from special warehouses of the Aerospace Forces and radar stations in Russia’s Voronezh region, who were previously in charge of manning Russia’s nuclear deterrent, the publication reported, citing a source familiar with the matter.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian sources are saying 5 UAVs were shot down overnight over Russian territory, the Defense Ministry said: 11 UAVs were destroyed over Moscow Oblast, another 23 UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, 6 UAVs were destroyed over Belgorod Oblast, 3 over Kaluga Oblast, and 2 over Kursk Oblast, - the ministry said.
A scattering of Russian drones hit targets in western Ukraine.
Reports that Russia has made more small advances in the Donbas region.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
NOTE - Much of the OSINT is coming from Russian based reports. Ukraine still holding to very tight OPSEC. Situation on the ground is still confused and changing minute by minute.
***
There are estimates that Ukraine has trapped as many as 3000 Russian soldiers west of the Sejm River as a result of its assaults on bridges in the region.
Ukrainian Armed Forces control 1263 square kilometers in the Kursk region, — commander-in-chief Syrskyi. “The Russians are conducting a maneuverable defense, trying to prevent further advance”, - he added
NOTE - this is more territory than Russia has seized all year to date.
Outlook —
Action in Kursk seem to be stabilizing out, with the exception that Ukraine may launch a flank attack on Russian forces trapped west of the Sejm River.
Ukraine is long overdue in dealing with the Russian push in the Donbas region. The offensive into Kursk has helped some in stripping away reinforcements but seems to have left Ukraine short handed on the defense of this sector that Russia continues to prioritize.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to target ammo depots deep in Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Iran’s IRGC spokesperson says the ‘waiting period for Iran’s retaliation’ against Israel could be long according to Reuters.
RUMINT - Iran stalls retaliation until US troops leave region
***
Blinkin is urging Israel to accept the current Gaza ceasefire initiative as soon as possible even though is has little chance of being accepted (currently rejected ) by hamas.
***
Hamas has sent threatening phone calls and messages to relatives of Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity, according to a report on Tuesday by N12.
The messages included warnings such as: “If you don’t fight the government, you won’t see your loved ones return.”
According to the report, the terror group sent ransom requests, claiming that without payment, the hostage families wouldn’t receive information about their loved ones.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli army is calling on Palestinians in a small section of the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in central Gaza’s Deir al-Balah to evacuate.
Dozens of gunmen were killed amid Israeli army operations in Gaza, as some 30 targets were struck by the Israeli Air Force across the Strip in the past day, the military says in a morning update
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese security source: Fatah Brigadier General Khalil al-Maqdah was assassinated in an Israeli raid on Sidon, southern Lebanon
A new wave of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah weapons depots and a compound that was used by Hezbollah’s Aerial Defense system in the Beqaa valley of Lebanon roughly 100km north of the border with Israel.
In response to those attacks, a barrage of 40-50 rockets was fired from Lebanon at the northern city of Katzrin in the Golan Heights a short while ago, according to the Israeli army. Some of the rockets were intercepted by air defense, although several impacted the city. The Magen David Adom ambulance service says it is treating a man in his 30s who was lightly wounded.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel security forces active throughout the west bank overnight.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel finding and eliminating more terror cells trying to regroup in Gaza.
Hezbollah losing more senior leaders and large ammo depots.
Some see Iran’s statement on a long wait for retaliation linked to an effort to wait out the presence of US (and likely other) forces in the region. The combined air power alone of US and allied nations pretty effectively neutralized the Iranian drone and cruise missile components of their April attack. The RUMINT is that they have their units ready to fire once the US and others stand down - in an effort to increase the possibility of the drone/cruise missile component having greater success. This could stretch out for months.
This puts Hezbollah into a deeper problem. If they launch their retaliatory attacks sooner rather than later, they risk having to face Israel alone and having those foreign military assets turn on them. If they delay along with Iran, they will continue to see their military stockpiles reduced and their senior leadership continued to be eliminated.
IAF strikes have typically resulted in Hezbollah launching large salvos of rockets, latest being in the 40-50 rocket range. What I don’t think they realize is that this provides Israel ample opportunity to locate and analyze those launch sites and to track which ammo dump supplied the munitions. This in turn caused both to be targeted and eliminated by Israel, thus permitting Israel to eliminate much of the rocket threat one bite at a time.
Bottom line is Hezbollah maintains the capability to launch a massive attack on Israel at any time. Iran is maintain the capability to launch an April sized or larger attack but appears to be a few preparation steps short of launch readiness. It is still the estimate that the attack will be a 1 - 2 punch with Hezbollah launching a massive rocket strike which will cover some of Iran’s final preparations and launch of its phase of the attack.
Iran –
Yesterday in the city of Qazvin (north of Tehran): riots ensued after a woman was arrested on the grounds that she did not cover her head sufficiently. The crowds managed to rescue the woman and beat the policemen chanting “Death to the dictator”.
OBSERVATION - The last round of unrest was also based on the religious police killing women for being uncovered.
Black Swans -
Gulf hurricane season has been pretty sluggish following predictions that the end of El Nino would permit hurricane formation and an extensive round of storms. The next couple of months are going to be make or break for the development of severe hurricane and impacts to the gulf and east coast.