CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Protestors against Netanyahu were out yesterday. Capital police reported that part of the crowd has became violent at First Street and Constitution Avenue, NW. The crowd failed to obey our order to move back from our police line. We are deploying pepper spray towards anyone trying to break the law and cross that line.
After being unable to storm the Capitol, leftist pro-Palestine rioters at the “Day of Rage” in D.C. ripped down the American flags outside Union Station and replaced them with Palestine flags. The American flags were then set on fire.
Numerous other monuments were vandalized.
OBSERVATION - The abundance of charter busses and common shirts, posters etc indicate $$$ was pumped into the event from outside - likely from Iranian sources as Netanyahu noted during his speech. Actions didn’t win any converts and did anger many. The fact that the DC police were able to handle them indicates the hard core elements were not in force and they reverted to ‘easier’ actions such as vandalism. I expect that over the next few days, many of the vandals will be doxxed and reported to their respective employers for action. That proved useful during the campus riots earlier this spring.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
FBI Director Christopher Wray announced that they are increasingly concerned about a coordinated foreign terrorist attack in the United States. Concern is increasing due to expected exploitation of the southern border and entities planning attacks, “perhaps like what we’ve seen against the concert hall in Russia.”
OBSERVATION - Mixed messages from the regime obviously. On the one hand, the border is secure (DHS), while the other warning of terror threats due to an insecure border. Frankly, in the current political environment and the lack of leadership in the WH the US is very ripe for a major terror attack(s) and that risk is growing as the election bears down on us.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) announced that the U.S. military intercepted two Russian and two Chinese bombers in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on Wednesday ahead of Joe Biden’s speech.
According to the U.S. Army, the Tupolev Tu-95 “Bear” is a “large, four-engine turboprop-powered strategic bomber and missile platform.” The Xian H-6 (Hōng-6) is “a license-built version of the Soviet Tupolev Tu-16 twin-engine jet bomber, built for China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force.”
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Roughly half of the Democrats in Congress boycotted Netanyahu’s speech yesterday - denoting the shift towards pro-Hamas inclinations of the democrats.
***
The Democrat party will reportedly change the rules and coronate Vice President Kamala Harris as its nominee in the first week of August, weeks before the Democratic national convention.
The shortened timeline underscores the Democrats’ disregard for the democratic process of selecting a candidate for president. By simply choosing Harris for the nomination, Democrats will nullify about 14 million votes cast during the Democrat primaries for President Joe Biden.
OBSERVATION - I’m not too concerned about the circumvention of ‘democracy’ - big party boss democrats will big party boss. It is, however, setting the party up for a potential slamming in the general election - in spite of some of the skewed push polling, harris remains lower in polls than even biden. As her cackling laugh track fills the airways over the next few weeks prior to the DNC convention - they may be forced to get her off the ticket and replaced with some one else.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden delivered a historic address to the nation on dropping out of the race, but doesn’t say why.
However, it wasn’t a “live’ as announced. Internet sleuths noted that Biden’s own wristwatch, showing he recorded the address an hour earlier.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian drone attack hit Zhytomyr Oblast where 10 private houses and an infrastructure facility were damaged overnight
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the Russian military has significantly increased its manpower and materiel commitments to the war in Ukraine over the last two and a half years. Syrskyi told UK outlet The Guardian in an interview published on July 24 that Russian forces currently have 520,000 personnel committed to the war in Ukraine and that the Russian military aims to have 690,000 personnel committed to the war by the end of 2024.
Outlook —
Syrskyi’s observations show that some how Russia has been able to scrape forces together to grow the war effort - moving towards nearly 3 times the force size that initially invaded in 2022. Part of this growth appears to be linked to the sizable payments for volunteers. However, Russia has a tendency to renege on those promised payments - especially in the case of death on the battle field.
This personnel growth is in the face of losing well over 1000 daily, 35,000+ per month. Equipment being supplied is older and older tanks, APC and other items.
Even with the numeric advantage, Russia is still struggling to gain ground on the battlefield. A comparison was made between Ukraine’s 2023 offensive and Russia’s 2024 efforts and found that Russia has only gained less than 90 sq km more land than Ukraine did.
How much longer Russia can sustain such costly operations is dependent on Ukraine receiving munitions and other supplies from the west.
Europe / NATO General –
Drone fragments were found around a Romanian village near the Danube and Ukraine border after overnight Russian attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure: Romanian television station Digi24 reported
Foreign Minister of Romania: More heinous attacks have been perpetrated by Russia against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Debris has been found on Romanian territory. We have informed and are coordinating with our Allies on this matter. Romania strongly condemns these irresponsible actions
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu addressed congress for the 4th time.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu broadly outlined his vision for the future of Gaza after the Israel-Hamas war ends, emphasized the necessity of maintaining a strong US-Israel relationship, and proposed a new Middle Eastern security alliance in a speech to a joint session of the US Congress on Wednesday. Netanyahu called for a complete revamping of Gaza’s government, suggesting that a “civilian administration” of Palestinians should run the war-torn enclave.
Israel PM Netanyahu says in his speech before the congress that he “will not rest until all the hostages return”
Netanyahu says Israel must retain “overriding security control” of Gaza “for the foreseeable future.” Says Gaza should have Palestinian civilian administration that agrees to peace with Israel
***
The IDF recovered the bodies of hostages Maya Goren, Oren Goldin and Staff Sergeant Tomer Ahimas from Hamas captivity in Gaza, it was cleared for publication on Wednesday evening. Kibbutz Nir Oz said in a statement, “Tonight, we were informed that the body of the late Maya Goren was recovered in a military rescue operation. After over nine months, she was brought back home for burial. The family was updated in the last few hours about the operation,” the kibbutz said in a statement.
The announcement means 111 of the 251 people taken hostage are still being held in Gaza, including 39 who the military says are presumed dead.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Rockets launched by Hamas yesterday from the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in the Gaza Strip struck a United Nations-run school in Khan Younis, killing and wounding Palestinians, the Israeli army says. According to the Israeli army, it received reports from international aid organizations that two civilians were killed and several more were wounded after the rockets struck UNRWA’s Al-Qarara school. The Israeli army says the rockets were fired by Hamas from the humanitarian zone, but failed to cross the border into Israel, falling short on the school in Khan Younis.
More than 60 targets were struck by Israeli Air Force fighter jets, attack helicopters and drones in the Gaza Strip over the past day, the military says, as ground troops continue operations in Khan Younis, Rafah, and the Netzarim Corridor area. In Khan Younis, the Israeli army says troops with the 98th Division killed numerous gunmen and destroyed some 50 sites belonging to terror groups over the past day
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The US Central Command said on Wednesday that it destroyed three missile launchers on territory in Yemen held by the Houthi militia. It was the latest in a series of military operations targeting Houthi sites in response to continuing attacks by the militia on international shipping.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue to hammer concentrated Hamas elements in the Khan Yunis area. With Netanyahu’s visit to the US coming to a close by this weekend, I’m sure much more focus will on preparations to fully engage Hezbollah. August continues to be a viable opening of the window for operations.
Netanyahu’s US visit in a key manner was to gauge the political sentiments to support Israel in its next phase against Hezbollah. He sees in harris a very negative attitude towards Israel, where as with Trump he sees a level of support expressed during his first term as president. So part of the calculation will be to see if it is better to strike Hezbollah sooner rather than later when trump is sworn back in in Jan 2025 (yes, i’m projecting here a great bit).
Misc of Note –
The last few weeks have been absolutely crazy - and the future even more dangerous.
The deep state has proven to be aggressive in targeting Trump - from falsifying FISA warrants and faking reports, etc, to the bogus law fare against Trump and now even likely deeply involved in the Trump assassination attempt.
We see the left willingly taking the knives out to put biden out of the election run as his poll numbers and mental/physical health crashed. harris should well watch her back because she can be targeted as easily as biden in the weeks before the DNC convention. She isn’t favored by 0bama and other power players.
Democrats potentially implode with more civil war over the president candidate while the deep state continues to target Trump.
One scary scenario would be a nuclear option, totally kicking the legs out from the economy and unleashing social chaos / rioting across the country. Deeply involved in this would be the millions of illegals - many from countries hostile to the US. Burn down the country in order to rule over the ashes.
Combine with the multiple other threats that are on the margins, ranging from terror attack (see Terror) to China/Taiwan to an explosive middle eastern situation.
I pray this isn’t in the offing, but the storm clouds foretell nasty things on the horizon not yet clear, but circling like vultures.
AHA! So that's why the USSS wants Trump to only campaign in indoor venues!
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
RNC convention and Netanyahu’s visit essentially complete, eyes need to turn to the democrat convention in Chicago. There are currently no major societal triggers that could be used to found a 2020 Floyd style violence.
I suspect in part some on the violent leftist side of the dial may be assessing the harris presidential bid as to if violence/protests will assist their cause and her election. she is already clearly the most marxist presidential candidate ever from the democrat party. Her hostility towards Israel may calm some of the planned protests by pro-hamas elements at the convention. OTOH, she is doubling down on the open borders and associated issues, which may stimulate black in Chicago to maintain their protests. Her Jamacan/Indian heritage is not winning points in the black community either.
Potential big triggering event could be Israel going full out against Hezbollah.
***
Ngo on “X” is noting an attempt by Portland Antifa to step up attacks on police stations in a manner similar to 2020 - trying to put some desire to fight into its followers. So far the attacks have not been very successful and in fact, catching agitators off guard via sudden arrests.
I am viewing such actions as very local and unlikely to spread to any other city/region.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Suspected Iranian based terror attacks ongoing in France surrounding the start of the Olympics. Such actions - such as vandalism/disruption of mass transit, etc, could give insight to similar in the US should Israel expand its war with Hezbollah.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
According to its initial (“advance”) estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024 – offsetting its dismal 1.4% first-quarter increase, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday.
Averaged out, real GDP has increased 2.1% in first two quarters, on par with the 2.0% benchmark analysts consider to be normal, or average, growth.
Meanwhile, measures of personal income, the income that is received by persons from all sources, weakened in the second quarter, the BEA reports:
- Current-dollar personal income increased $237.6 billion in the second quarter, down from $396.8 billion growth in the first quarter.
- Disposable personal income growth was 3.6%, down from its 4.8% increase in the first quarter.
- Real disposable personal income slowed to 1.0%, compared with an increase of 1.3% in the first quarter.
- Personal Savings growth fell from $777.3 billion to $$720.5 billion.
- Personal Savings Rate fell to 3.5%, down from 3.8% in the first quarter.
OBSERVATION - Hardly the happy days are here again economy the democrats keep harping about. We also need to keep in mind that the common trend for economic news like this is that it is often downgraded later on.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
With that in mind, now for some polls -
Only 39 percent of registered independents say Vice President Kamala Harris is “qualified” to be president, an Economist/YouGov poll recently found.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shared with Secrets and taken over the past three nights. It shows Trump leading Harris with likely voters 50%-43%, well outside the margin of error. Significantly, the new poll shows a massive 20-point gap among independent voters favoring Trump, 53%-33%. It does show a slight gain in Democratic voter support for Harris over Biden.
As CNN noted in their reporting on the latest polling data, while Biden led Trump by 21 points in the Under age 35 demographic, Harris is only leading by 9 points.
Ninety-two percent of Americans believe Vice President Kamala Harris knew about President Joe Biden’s apparent failing health, a recent survey shows.
***
Following Tuesday’s resignation by Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle, DHS Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas named Ronald J. Rowe, Jr. as the agency’s Acting Director.
“I look forward to all we will accomplish,” Rowe said upon his appointment, touting the success he and Chealte had had in their previous “no-fail protective mission.”
“Director Cheatle and I have worked in collaboration to achieve our no-fail protective mission. Together, we managed critical incidents and National Special Security Events, planned complex protective operations and oversaw research to develop and deploy technologies that reduce risks to our protectees, protected facilities and protected events.
“I am eager to join forces again and support her vision for the Secret Service. I look forward to all we will accomplish.”
OBSERVATION - Not sure he REALLY wants to hitch his wagon to Cheatle’s tenure.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Massive makeover of harris’ activities as VP and senator is underway on the internet - but overlook that the internet never forgets.
- The MSM is trying to erase harris’ title of “border czar” in a desperate effort to decouple her from that devastating (for democrats) issue. The ‘fact checkers’ were out in force, pushing the spin into the red zone and likely backfiring by instigating folks to relook the claims.
- GovTrack, an organization that tracks voting records in Congress, yanked its 2019 rating that pegged then-Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) as the most liberal member of the upper chamber – after several media outlets including The Post cited the statistic in stories on the presumed Democratic presidential nominee.
The website pulled down its 2019 ranking on Monday evening after it got renewed attention in the wake of President Biden’s seismic decision to drop out of the 2024 race on Sunday, its founder confirmed to The Post.
OBSERVATION - One can only expect more of the attempt to whitewash out harris’ radical marxist past combined with the MSM trying to present her as the greatest thing since sliced bread.
***
biden and harris separately met with Netanyahu yesterday after initial schedules having them doing other things.
Harris reportedly told Netanyahu “It is time for this war to end,” emphasizing the need for a path to a two-state solution.
***
the 0bamas have finally, grudgingly endorsed harris’ run for the presidency, even though he doesn’t see her having any chance.
Illegal Immigration –
One of the world’s most powerful drug lords, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, leader of Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel, has been arrested by US federal agents in El Paso, Texas.
Zambada, 76, founded the criminal organisation with Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, who is currently jailed in the US.
Arrested with Zambada on Thursday was Guzman’s son, Joaquin Guzman Lopez, said the US justice department.
In February, Zambada was charged by US prosecutors with a conspiracy to make and distribute fentanyl, a drug more powerful than heroin that has been blamed for the US opioid crisis.
Details of the arrests of the two men remain unclear, but it appears they flew into the United States.
Citing Mexican and US officials, the Wall Street Journal reports that Zambada was tricked into boarding the plane by a high-ranking Sinaloa member following a months-long operation by Homeland Security Investigations and the FBI.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng4g31x1wo
OBSERVATION - It is already pretty clear that the cartels have infiltrated and continue to grow their presence in the US. After effects of this capture may well be a surge in cartel violence in Mexico as various groups try to take advantage of the power vacuum and expand territory or settle grudges.
Russia -
Kerch Bridge update –
Russian forces are massively moving equipment closer to the Kerch Bridge, according to Ukrainian partisan movement “Atesh.” They are relocating surviving air defense systems, aviation, radars, and military facilities from the western part of Crimea towards the strategic crossing. Partisans report that the occupiers can only cover one area of the peninsula due to a critical shortage of air defense systems.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 20 Shahed drones overnight. Key targeted areas appear to have been Zaporizhzhia and Odesa regions.
Intense Russian attacks along the Ocheretyne, Chasiv Yar and Pivnichne sectors.
ISW and other analysts are reporting that Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24. Imagery, and other intelligence shows that Ukrainian forces stopped a reinforced battalion-size Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) after Russian forces advanced up to the southeastern outskirts of the settlement. ISW last observed Russian forces conduct a battalion-sized mechanized attack in Donetsk Oblast in March 2024. Russian forces have not conducted larger mechanized assaults in Ukraine since the first days of Russia’s four-month-long operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023.
Russia reportedly lost nearly a dozen tanks, a lot of APCs and other vehicles carrying troops with heavy associated troop losses.
Crimean front —
General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed overnight attack at Saky airfield in occupied Crimea
Outlook —
The report of the dismal results of the July 24th assault by Russia is telling in many ways. First shows that higher level leadership and planning are hurting. Second, though the objective of the attack was practical, Russian forces charged straight into a drone/artillery and AT maelstrom. They apparently had no supporting artillery or air cover.
The majority of the Russian attacks are at a company or smaller scale. This tends to short change Russian efforts by not having enough forces to exploit any gains as well as having many units decimated in piecemeal.
In spite of the failure, I expect Russia to try more large attacks in this sector.
Reported redeployment of in particular ADA assets around the Kersch bridge is significant. Ukraine has waged a successful effort to target and destroy ADA assets and those efforts have borne fruit in the clearing out of the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, as well as forcing redeployment of fighter/bomber assets further from the border. Right now, Ukraine has forced Russia to essentially rely solely upon the bridge for the vast majority of its military supplies. Should Russia lose the bridge (and much of the remaining ADA assets) life for both the Russian military and civilians will get very bad.
Russian destruction of the dam on the Dniper River that supplied water to Crimea, on top of other infrastructure problems reportedly is causing large areas of the peninsula to try to revert to its semi-arid climate - creating crop losses and lack of water in general.
I don’t think Ukraine’s actions (including trying to destroy the bridge) will result in Russia pulling out, but it will create a severe logistical pull to sustain military forces and civilian demands for basics.
Europe / NATO General –
A new video shows Romanian Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns shooting down two Russian suicide drones across the river separating Romania from Ukraine near Izmail.
Romania was forced to take action after at least 1 suicide drone hit 11 km deep into its territory and additional drones were flying their way.
OBSERVATION - This is the first instance of NATO weapons firing of Russian assets. Poland has threatened similar in the past months. This may push NATO into establishing some sort of no fly zone coverage over adjacent regions in Ukraine to protect against future spill over of Russian drones/missiles.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu meets with biden and harris in spite of earlier rejections. To meet with Trump today
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Israeli foreign minister accuses Iran of being behind “the sabotage” of the railway infrastructure across France, saying that they have “reliable information” that Iran and its allies are planning to attack Israeli Olympic teams and France’s Olympic Games in general
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Heavy fighting continues in and around Khan Yunis
Scattered IAF airstrikes throughout central and N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A cell of Hezbollah operatives was struck in southern Lebanon’s Markaba a short while ago, the Israeli army says. The military says the operatives were spotted by troops of the 869th Combat Intelligence Collection Unit entering a building used by the terror group, and a short while later, a fighter jet carried out an airstrike.
Separately, overnight, the Israeli army says it struck another building used by Hezbollah in Ayta ash-Shab.
One rocket launched from Lebanon at the Upper Galilee a short while ago was intercepted by air defenses, the Israeli army adds.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces arrest 23 Palestinians in the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reports of a rocket attack on Conico Base in Deir Ez Zor, Syria
——— FORECAST ————————-
I don’t see any signifiant changes in the Gaza fight. Israel continues to create opportunities for hamas to try to reform, then hammers them as they are doing in Khan Yunis.
Israel will continue to make preparations to go full on against Hezbollah. These preparations will increasingly focus on preparation of the battlefield via targeted strikes against leadership, other command and control, logistics/stockpiles, etc. Hezbollah continues to aid Israel in these efforts by exposing leadership, rocket firing positions and stockpiles etc.
Current stage of israeli preparations does not indicate an imminent assault, but does indicate continued progression toward one as early as mid August.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
RNC convention and Netanyahu’s visit essentially complete, eyes need to turn to the democrat convention in Chicago. There are currently no major societal triggers that could be used to found a 2020 Floyd style violence.
I suspect in part some on the violent leftist side of the dial may be assessing the harris presidential bid as to if violence/protests will assist their cause and her election. she is already clearly the most marxist presidential candidate ever from the democrat party. Her hostility towards Israel may calm some of the planned protests by pro-hamas elements at the convention. OTOH, she is doubling down on the open borders and associated issues, which may stimulate black in Chicago to maintain their protests. Her Jamacan/Indian heritage is not winning points in the black community either.
Potential big triggering event could be Israel going full out against Hezbollah.
***
Ngo on “X” is noting an attempt by Portland Antifa to step up attacks on police stations in a manner similar to 2020 - trying to put some desire to fight into its followers. So far the attacks have not been very successful and in fact, catching agitators off guard via sudden arrests.
I am viewing such actions as very local and unlikely to spread to any other city/region.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Suspected Iranian based terror attacks ongoing in France surrounding the start of the Olympics. Such actions - such as vandalism/disruption of mass transit, etc, could give insight to similar in the US should Israel expand its war with Hezbollah.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
According to its initial (“advance”) estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024 – offsetting its dismal 1.4% first-quarter increase, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday.
Averaged out, real GDP has increased 2.1% in first two quarters, on par with the 2.0% benchmark analysts consider to be normal, or average, growth.
Meanwhile, measures of personal income, the income that is received by persons from all sources, weakened in the second quarter, the BEA reports:
- Current-dollar personal income increased $237.6 billion in the second quarter, down from $396.8 billion growth in the first quarter.
- Disposable personal income growth was 3.6%, down from its 4.8% increase in the first quarter.
- Real disposable personal income slowed to 1.0%, compared with an increase of 1.3% in the first quarter.
- Personal Savings growth fell from $777.3 billion to $$720.5 billion.
- Personal Savings Rate fell to 3.5%, down from 3.8% in the first quarter.
OBSERVATION - Hardly the happy days are here again economy the democrats keep harping about. We also need to keep in mind that the common trend for economic news like this is that it is often downgraded later on.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
With that in mind, now for some polls -
Only 39 percent of registered independents say Vice President Kamala Harris is “qualified” to be president, an Economist/YouGov poll recently found.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shared with Secrets and taken over the past three nights. It shows Trump leading Harris with likely voters 50%-43%, well outside the margin of error. Significantly, the new poll shows a massive 20-point gap among independent voters favoring Trump, 53%-33%. It does show a slight gain in Democratic voter support for Harris over Biden.
As CNN noted in their reporting on the latest polling data, while Biden led Trump by 21 points in the Under age 35 demographic, Harris is only leading by 9 points.
Ninety-two percent of Americans believe Vice President Kamala Harris knew about President Joe Biden’s apparent failing health, a recent survey shows.
***
Following Tuesday’s resignation by Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle, DHS Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas named Ronald J. Rowe, Jr. as the agency’s Acting Director.
“I look forward to all we will accomplish,” Rowe said upon his appointment, touting the success he and Chealte had had in their previous “no-fail protective mission.”
“Director Cheatle and I have worked in collaboration to achieve our no-fail protective mission. Together, we managed critical incidents and National Special Security Events, planned complex protective operations and oversaw research to develop and deploy technologies that reduce risks to our protectees, protected facilities and protected events.
“I am eager to join forces again and support her vision for the Secret Service. I look forward to all we will accomplish.”
OBSERVATION - Not sure he REALLY wants to hitch his wagon to Cheatle’s tenure.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Massive makeover of harris’ activities as VP and senator is underway on the internet - but overlook that the internet never forgets.
- The MSM is trying to erase harris’ title of “border czar” in a desperate effort to decouple her from that devastating (for democrats) issue. The ‘fact checkers’ were out in force, pushing the spin into the red zone and likely backfiring by instigating folks to relook the claims.
- GovTrack, an organization that tracks voting records in Congress, yanked its 2019 rating that pegged then-Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) as the most liberal member of the upper chamber – after several media outlets including The Post cited the statistic in stories on the presumed Democratic presidential nominee.
The website pulled down its 2019 ranking on Monday evening after it got renewed attention in the wake of President Biden’s seismic decision to drop out of the 2024 race on Sunday, its founder confirmed to The Post.
OBSERVATION - One can only expect more of the attempt to whitewash out harris’ radical marxist past combined with the MSM trying to present her as the greatest thing since sliced bread.
***
biden and harris separately met with Netanyahu yesterday after initial schedules having them doing other things.
Harris reportedly told Netanyahu “It is time for this war to end,” emphasizing the need for a path to a two-state solution.
***
the 0bamas have finally, grudgingly endorsed harris’ run for the presidency, even though he doesn’t see her having any chance.
Illegal Immigration –
One of the world’s most powerful drug lords, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, leader of Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel, has been arrested by US federal agents in El Paso, Texas.
Zambada, 76, founded the criminal organisation with Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, who is currently jailed in the US.
Arrested with Zambada on Thursday was Guzman’s son, Joaquin Guzman Lopez, said the US justice department.
In February, Zambada was charged by US prosecutors with a conspiracy to make and distribute fentanyl, a drug more powerful than heroin that has been blamed for the US opioid crisis.
Details of the arrests of the two men remain unclear, but it appears they flew into the United States.
Citing Mexican and US officials, the Wall Street Journal reports that Zambada was tricked into boarding the plane by a high-ranking Sinaloa member following a months-long operation by Homeland Security Investigations and the FBI.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng4g31x1wo
OBSERVATION - It is already pretty clear that the cartels have infiltrated and continue to grow their presence in the US. After effects of this capture may well be a surge in cartel violence in Mexico as various groups try to take advantage of the power vacuum and expand territory or settle grudges.
Russia -
Kerch Bridge update –
Russian forces are massively moving equipment closer to the Kerch Bridge, according to Ukrainian partisan movement “Atesh.” They are relocating surviving air defense systems, aviation, radars, and military facilities from the western part of Crimea towards the strategic crossing. Partisans report that the occupiers can only cover one area of the peninsula due to a critical shortage of air defense systems.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 20 Shahed drones overnight. Key targeted areas appear to have been Zaporizhzhia and Odesa regions.
Intense Russian attacks along the Ocheretyne, Chasiv Yar and Pivnichne sectors.
ISW and other analysts are reporting that Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24. Imagery, and other intelligence shows that Ukrainian forces stopped a reinforced battalion-size Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) after Russian forces advanced up to the southeastern outskirts of the settlement. ISW last observed Russian forces conduct a battalion-sized mechanized attack in Donetsk Oblast in March 2024. Russian forces have not conducted larger mechanized assaults in Ukraine since the first days of Russia’s four-month-long operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023.
Russia reportedly lost nearly a dozen tanks, a lot of APCs and other vehicles carrying troops with heavy associated troop losses.
Crimean front —
General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed overnight attack at Saky airfield in occupied Crimea
Outlook —
The report of the dismal results of the July 24th assault by Russia is telling in many ways. First shows that higher level leadership and planning are hurting. Second, though the objective of the attack was practical, Russian forces charged straight into a drone/artillery and AT maelstrom. They apparently had no supporting artillery or air cover.
The majority of the Russian attacks are at a company or smaller scale. This tends to short change Russian efforts by not having enough forces to exploit any gains as well as having many units decimated in piecemeal.
In spite of the failure, I expect Russia to try more large attacks in this sector.
Reported redeployment of in particular ADA assets around the Kersch bridge is significant. Ukraine has waged a successful effort to target and destroy ADA assets and those efforts have borne fruit in the clearing out of the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, as well as forcing redeployment of fighter/bomber assets further from the border. Right now, Ukraine has forced Russia to essentially rely solely upon the bridge for the vast majority of its military supplies. Should Russia lose the bridge (and much of the remaining ADA assets) life for both the Russian military and civilians will get very bad.
Russian destruction of the dam on the Dniper River that supplied water to Crimea, on top of other infrastructure problems reportedly is causing large areas of the peninsula to try to revert to its semi-arid climate - creating crop losses and lack of water in general.
I don’t think Ukraine’s actions (including trying to destroy the bridge) will result in Russia pulling out, but it will create a severe logistical pull to sustain military forces and civilian demands for basics.
Europe / NATO General –
A new video shows Romanian Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns shooting down two Russian suicide drones across the river separating Romania from Ukraine near Izmail.
Romania was forced to take action after at least 1 suicide drone hit 11 km deep into its territory and additional drones were flying their way.
OBSERVATION - This is the first instance of NATO weapons firing of Russian assets. Poland has threatened similar in the past months. This may push NATO into establishing some sort of no fly zone coverage over adjacent regions in Ukraine to protect against future spill over of Russian drones/missiles.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu meets with biden and harris in spite of earlier rejections. To meet with Trump today
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Israeli foreign minister accuses Iran of being behind “the sabotage” of the railway infrastructure across France, saying that they have “reliable information” that Iran and its allies are planning to attack Israeli Olympic teams and France’s Olympic Games in general
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Heavy fighting continues in and around Khan Yunis
Scattered IAF airstrikes throughout central and N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A cell of Hezbollah operatives was struck in southern Lebanon’s Markaba a short while ago, the Israeli army says. The military says the operatives were spotted by troops of the 869th Combat Intelligence Collection Unit entering a building used by the terror group, and a short while later, a fighter jet carried out an airstrike.
Separately, overnight, the Israeli army says it struck another building used by Hezbollah in Ayta ash-Shab.
One rocket launched from Lebanon at the Upper Galilee a short while ago was intercepted by air defenses, the Israeli army adds.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces arrest 23 Palestinians in the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reports of a rocket attack on Conico Base in Deir Ez Zor, Syria
——— FORECAST ————————-
I don’t see any signifiant changes in the Gaza fight. Israel continues to create opportunities for hamas to try to reform, then hammers them as they are doing in Khan Yunis.
Israel will continue to make preparations to go full on against Hezbollah. These preparations will increasingly focus on preparation of the battlefield via targeted strikes against leadership, other command and control, logistics/stockpiles, etc. Hezbollah continues to aid Israel in these efforts by exposing leadership, rocket firing positions and stockpiles etc.
Current stage of israeli preparations does not indicate an imminent assault, but does indicate continued progression toward one as early as mid August.