CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
NOTE - I mis-dated the Netanyahu speech to this month.
***
More leftist calls for the assassination of trump, conservative members of the USSC and other republicans by elements of the left (note - it isn’t just the fringe elements making these demands any more)
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
July 4th celebrations - keep your head on a swivel
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
According to a stunning new survey that was just released, an annual income of at least $186,000 a year is required in order to feel financially secure in the United States today. Unfortunately, only 6 percent of U.S. adults make that kind of money. So we have a major problem on our hands.
From CBS News...
Americans have a specific annual income in mind for what it would take to feel financially secure, according to a new survey from Bankrate. The magic number? $186,000 per year.
Currently, only 6% of U.S. adults make that amount or more, Bankrate said. The median family income falls between $51,500 and $86,000, according to the latest federal data. Achieving financial security means being able to pay your bills while having enough left over to make some discretionary purchases and put money away for the future, the personal finance site said.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=7058
***
The Biden administration completed the sale of 1 million barrels of gasoline from the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve, the White House said in a statement shared with The Epoch Times on July 2.
Last month, the government announced it would release 42 million gallons of gas from storage facilities in Maine and New Jersey to help lower pump prices heading into the typically busy summer driving season.
OBSERVATION - I think we all know by now that this is a deliberate action to place the country in a dangerous readiness situation. Sell offs of the SPR during 2022 did little to nothing to bring prices down, but did leave us vulnerable to oil cut offs from overseas. Now the gasoline reserve will place north-easterners under threat should oil pipelines and sources to the south get cut off, most commonly by severe storms.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Army and Navy have recently completed a flight test of a hypersonic missile as the United States seeks to keep pace with its geopolitical rivals—China and Russia—in developing hypersonic capabilities.
The military performed the flight test from the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Kauai, Hawaii, to gather data on the overall performance of the long-range hypersonic weapon (LRHW), the Pentagon said on June 28.
The LRHW is equipped with the Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) All-Up-Round missile—which consists of a two-stage solid rocket motor booster and a hypersonic glide body—and the Army’s canister.
A recent report by the Congressional Research Service stated that the U.S. Army’s LRHW, dubbed the Dark Eagle, can travel at more than 3,800 miles per hour and is capable of reaching “the top of the Earth’s atmosphere.”
The weapon system can maintain a position “just beyond the range of air and missile defense systems” until it is ready to strike, according to the report.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Pfizer, Moderna, and the mRNA gang are unleashing a new “vaccine” enterprise upon the public, and U.S. Government Health is all too happy to assist in the operation.
On Tuesday, The Biden Administration awarded Moderna with a $176 million contract purposed with developing a vaccine for bird flu. It serves as a much needed lifeline for Moderna, because after its failed mRNA Covid-19 gambit, the $45 billion company has once again found itself without any functioning products. However, given Moderna’s partnerships with the American government, the company has been able to sustain itself through regulatory capture.
https://www.dossier.today/p/pfizer-and-moderna-are-rolling-out
OBSERVATION - Expect growing pressure to pre-vaccinate the population in advance of the bird flu plandemic.
***
The second international Bird Flu Summit is taking place in a few months. It is proclaimed to be a global event that brings together experts, innovators and stakeholders to address the pressing concerns surrounding avian influenza. The summit aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange to combat the spread of bird flu and its impact on human and animal health, as well as the global economy.
In line with the World Health Organisation’s vision, the conference is taking a One Health approach. The outcome of the first Bird Flu Summit was that vaccination is a critical tool to mitigate the spread of bird flu. We can expect the outcome of the second to be the same.
The First International Avian Influenza Summit was held on 16-17 October 2023, at the University of Arkansas, USA, with a focus on research, policy, and industry collaboration. At the gathering, 23 speakers made presentations over the two days and 1,842 people registered as participants from 81 countries.
Another outcome of the 2023 Summit was to hold another summit on bird flu, this time, again unsurprisingly, to incorporate the nefarious One Health ideology. The second bird flu summit, ‘The International Avian Influenza and One Health Emerging Issues Summit’, is scheduled to take place from 30 September to 3 October 2024 at the Don Tyson Centre for Agricultural Sciences, in Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA.
“Avian influenza has adapted to mammalian species, and it is now endemic in the United States,” said Tellez-Isaias who is one of 14 organisers for the summit, hosted by the Division of Agriculture and the University of Arkansas Dale Bumpers College of Agricultural, Food and Life Sciences.
https://expose-news.com/2024/07/02/pandemic-vaccine-industry-pushes-for-bird-flu-vaccinations/
OBSERVATION - They are trying to make bird flu the next major pandemic by hook or by crook.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Shuffling of the card deck by democrats/liberals looking desperately for a replacement to biden have come up with a ridiculous poll that places - hold your hats - Vice President Kamala Harris performing slightly better than Biden in a matchup with former President Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee. Yes, you heard it right, the least popular VP in history out performing biden. Heck, she even outperforms Mike 0bama!
harris trails Trump by just two points – 47%-45% – in a hypothetical matchup, according to the poll.
Now add into this the very powerful black block in the DNC warning that replacing biden with anyone other than a black female will torpedo its 2024 campaign efforts. Evidence of some serious, knife in the back, red lines being drawn.
NOTE - Don’t put much faith in any polls. This poll is likely skewed by the black caucus related DNC wing to leverage support for harris - who’s largely been kept out of initial rumination on a biden replacement.
IN RELATED, lets throw some more pasta on the fridge to see what sticks shall we . . . .
Former first lady Michelle Obama is the only hypothetical presidential candidate alternative that can beat presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, a post-debate Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/poll-reuters-ipsos/2024/07/03/id/1171072/
BOTTOM LINE - the appearance of these polls server the purpose to try to leverage biden out of the candidate slot by showing the democrats can still win in November and secondly, sticking with a ‘black’ and female candidate is the winning number.
***
The July 11 sentencing of former President Donald J. Trump is being delayed until September 18 after two U.S. Supreme Court decisions. In a letter sent to Judge Juan Merchan on Tuesday, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg said his office was not opposed to a motion by attorneys for the former president asking to delay the sentencing hearing.
In his order, Merchan adds an interesting note - “if such is still necessary” in regards to the sentencing. Charlie Kirk on a post on “X” breaks out Merchan’s predicament -
Charlie Kirk notes on “X”. The Supreme Court has ruled that presidents are criminally immune for their core constitutional powers and presumptively immune for their official acts as president.
- As an extension of this, the Court also ruled that a president’s official acts cannot be used as evidence of criminal conduct in his private acts.
- Even though the NY case concerned actions Trump took before becoming president, Alvin Bragg’s team repeatedly and aggressively introduced evidence from President Trump’s official acts as president: His presidential tweets, his discussion of presidential business in the Oval Office, and so on. They didn’t have to do this, but they were in such a frenzy to attack Trump that they did it anyway
- If New York introduced unconstitutional evidence during their trial of Trump, then there is no option but to order a new trial with that evidence excluded.
NOTE that this is on TOP of all the other illegal actions taken by Merchan through the course of the trial.
Sept 18 will place any sentencing past the RNC convention and would add to the pressure of jailing a declared candidate for the presidency. At this stage, odds are increasing that Merchan will be forced to rule a mistrial, nullifying the indictments.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Reports that Hunter biden is taking a leading role in WH meetings is roiling staff. he is a convicted 3 time felon of gun charges and his presence with joe in high level WH meetings is a security risk at at the very least. This follows reports that Jill and hunter have effectively isolated joe from staffers, particularly those who would encourage him to step down from the presidential race. Such aggressive handling further suggests that not only is joe not in possession of his facilities, he isn’t in possession of the presidency.
***
One other poll to add to the ones under Political Front above -
Most U.S. voters — 75% — say that the Democratic Party will have a better chance at holding on to the White House if it replaces President Joe Biden as its nominee, according to a new CNN poll released Tuesday.
The numbers were driven by Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters, who said the party has a better chance of winning with someone other than Biden ( 56%), with 43% saying the party’s chances are better with him, reported CNN.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/cnn-poll-biden-trump/2024/07/02/id/1170996/
China –
China sailed its aircraft carrier CNS Shandong (17) into the South China Sea, as close as 230 miles from the Philippine main island of Luzon. Meanwhile, PLAN ships have been operating around Japan over the past few days, according to Japan Joint Staff Office releases.
Satellite imagery showed Shandong sailing within 230 miles of Luzon on June 26. The Philippine Navy has downplayed the carrier’s presence. Philippines news channel GMA News reported that in a Tuesday press briefing, Philippine Navy spokesperson Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad said the Philippine Navy was aware of the carrier and also of the China Coast Guard’s 12,000-ton CG5901 cutter in the Philippine exclusive economic zone. Trinidad said the presence of both ships was permissible under international law.
“They are authorized under UNCLOS either through freedom of navigation or right of innocent passage. Rest assured the Philippine Navy and the Armed Forces will continue monitoring the vast expanse of our maritime domain,” Trinidad said.
Russia -
*****
Russia is pressuring Israel in order to prevent them from transferring Patriot missile systems to Ukraine. Basically their threat is don’t do it or else. The “or else’ part is very vague.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
11 aerial targets were shot down by Ukrainian air defense this morning. Targeted areas included Dnipro city, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and the Odesa region.
Ukraine sea drone attack was reported in Novorosiysk, Russia by local authorities.
Reports from Kursk Russia, that the Central Aviation Technical Base is on fire after a series of explosions.
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims occupation of Novyy district of Chasiv Yar.
Outlook —
Institute for the Study of Warfare (ISW) is saying that it appears that Russian higher command in the Chasiv Yar / Avdiivka fronts are trying to develop a higher level of maneuver against Ukraine forces, similar to that which successfully drove the offensive in the region earlier in the spring. While the larger scheme of maneuver that appears to be forming is good on paper, execution at the tactical level is abysmally poor. This is due in part to the massive casualties that have been inflicted on Russian forces in the attacks to date. To further their advance, it appears that the bulk of the regional reserves have been committed to the area, potentially reflected in the minor Russian claim of actually occupying Novyy district of Chasiv Yar. Russia has been making similar claims over the past months as Chasiv Yar is one of the jewels putin has specifically called for Russia forces to capture.
Again, resupply of Ukraine forces with artillery and other munitions will make Russia’s efforts on this portion of the front even more difficult, because the earlier gains were when Ukraine forces were at critically low munitions levels and had to tactically retreat or be completely defeated. Those conditions are no longer in play.
The other big story continues to be Ukraine’s continuation of the ‘deep war’ against Russian targets. European countries are increasingly giving Ukraine the OK to not only hit where ever in Crimea, but deeper into Russia proper. The deepening expansion using NATO systems versus Ukraine developed drones/missiles is a huge step upward in potential war escalation.
Europe / NATO General –
Tensions in France continue at a high level as the nation prepares for the second round of elections this coming Sunday.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas tunnel network is so extensive it could take years to fully neutralize.
- New rumors that Israel’s assault into S Lebanon could be as early now as the end of July.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Brigadier General Amir Avivi, chairman of the IDSF and former commander of the IDF School of Engineering, spoke to Israel National News - Arutz Sheva on the continued clearing of Hamas tunnels even now, almost nine months since the outbreak of the Gaza war.
Avivi started by talking of significant information that must be taken into account: “The size and strength of Hamas are similar to ISIS at its peak. At the time there were about 35-40 thousand ISIS combat soldiers, who were much less skilled than Hamas, with much less significant infrastructure. They had many volunteers from all over the world and ISIS faced an entire coalition of Americans, Russians and Europeans, who fought there for years and razed the cities to the ground.”
“We have to understand that it will take time to eliminate this monster that was created in Gaza,” says Avivi and says that even after six weeks of fighting in Operation Defensive Shield, during the operation itself and in taking over the cities, the IDF continued to operate in the area for about five years to achieve the required results. We must be patient and, above all, make sure that conditions do not allow such a monster to rise up again in Gaza in the future. We need to internalize this lesson and stop the madness that allows terrorist armies to rise up around us.”
To our question how much longer he estimates we will continue to uncover tunnels and destroy them throughout the Gaza Strip, Avivi responds saying that, “we still have not yet discovered a very large part of the tunnels. This is a process that will take years to clear. Much more work is needed. In this kind of fighting there is the initial stage where we have to break down the enemy and take control. But the longer part of the process is clearing the area and dismantling the infrastructure. This will take years and we will need patience to deal with it.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/392472
***
Israel will begin its offensive on Lebanon in the second half of July unless Hezbollah holds its fire, the German Bild reported on Monday quoting diplomatic sources, According to the paper, Hezbollah does not intend to stop its attacks on Israel until the war in Gaza ends.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1dvykgpc
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli Chief of Staff says that his forces killed more than 900 militants in Rafah
Intense fighting reports in the Gaza City and Rafah areas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese media report an Israeli drone strike on a vehicle near the Italian Hospital in the coastal city of Tyre.
A drone targeted a car with missiles in the town of Houla, southern Lebanon.
Indications that Israel’s current operations in Gaza, occupying 3 divisions, will soon be reduced to one division with the other two redeploying towards the Lebanese border..
NOTE - drone attacks like this likely hit high ranking personnel in Hezbollah.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Considerable Israeli security forces action in the Nablus area.
——— FORECAST ————————-
IMHO, reports of Israel kicking off its Lebanon ground offensive by the end of this month may be more propaganda designed to place Hezbollah on edge and burn them out in preparation before the attack occurs. Readiness declines the longer forces are placed at a high level of alert/readiness. Even with moving two of three divisions operating in Gaza north, Israel is still low on available offensive forces and should have more reserves called up. Such a call up could likely happen within two weeks of the offensive kicking off.
As it stands, Israel is settling into the bait and attack mode in Gaza to economize forces. Pull back and let Hamas try to regather, then hammer them with air power and lightning raids. This tactic does have its risks as it does seem Hamas is evolving its tactics to counter - relying increasingly on setting up traps of its own with IEDs on routes Israel is expect to us in their counter strike operations. These bombs have increased the casualties of IDF a lot.
Again barring any Hezbollah spoiling attack, I still expect the target window of the action against Hezbollah to be August. I think that timeframe and manpower wise, kicking off the attack in the next few weeks may not be optimum for Israel.
One last indicator that July is too early is Netanyahu’s scheduled speech before congress on July 25th. To launch conduct the massive offensive before then, while he is out of country, is unthinkable.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane Beryl’s projected track included the potential of hitting southern Texas with tropical storm levels of strength.
No post today - happy 4th of July
It is nice that we were actually able to celebrate 4th of July in this current mess the regime has foisted on us.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
NOTE - I mis-dated the Netanyahu speech to this month.
***
Numerous calls by a wide assortment of leftists continue to call for the assassination of trump and other conservatives.
Relatively quiet expect for the traditional trouble spots in major cities. Pro-islam / hamas elements burned a lot of US flags - no surprise.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
An early Wednesday morning explosion rocked the General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems facility in Camden, Arkansas, injuring at least two people and leaving one person missing.
Local media outlet Camden News quoted General Dynamics in a statement as saying:
“Today at 8:15 am CDT, an incident involving pyrotechnics occurred at the General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems facility in Camden, Arkansas. At this time, we are working with first responders and can confirm the incident resulted in at least two injuries and one missing individual.”
The 880,000-square-foot weapons factory, located about 86 miles south of Little Rock, is a “leader in the high-rate production” of weapons, including “Hydra-70 2.75-inch rocket, Hellfire and Javelin missiles, the Modular Artillery Charge System and various mortar munitions,” according to the defense firm’s website.
OBSERVATION - Sabotage or operations accident? At this stage of global instability and the rapidly growing demand for these in particularly weapons combined with the great unknowns of who has snuck across the border, this incident must be viewed suspiciously .
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
John Deere, the leading global seller of tractors and crop harvesters, announced another round of layoffs last Friday due to a collapse in demand and a slowing U.S. economy. The company informed approximately 610 production staff in its Illinois and Iowa plants that their employment would end by the end of the summer. According to John Deere, all layoffs will take effect on August 30. Production is going to be moved to Mexico where costs are substantially lower.
***
The number of Americans on unemployment rolls has risen for the ninth straight week, according to data released Wednesday by the Department of Labor, in the latest signal that the labor market is weakening.
The total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits—known as continuing claims—rose to 1.86 million for the week of June 22. That’s the highest level since November 2021.
Initial jobless claims, widely seen as a proxy for layoffs, increased from 234,000 to 238,000, according to data from the Labor Department. While that’s relatively low by historical standards, initial unemployment filings have been rising steadily recently after mostly remaining below 220,000 this year.
“Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month,” Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist, said in a statement.
While the ADP report indicated that U.S. private employers added 150,000 jobs in June, the group noted that this figure represented the third straight month of slowing job creation numbers.
OBSERVATION - Leisure and hospitality jobs do little to strengthen the economic foundations of the country. Construction and manufacturing sector - where things actually get made - are where growth are needed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
More associated scrambling among potential replacements for biden. Talk continue to surround newscum, mike 0bama and others with harris (and a strong contingency of black democrat faction) holding to its her or no money transfer from the biden / harris coffers.
***
Meanwhile, fingers are pointing and knives are out in the MSM realm as some outlets/reporters are coming out saying that they knew a half year ago biden was addle minded but didn’t want to report it because it would help trump (note - total lack of concern that biden is mentally unfit to have the nuclear codes). Blame continues to be heard on CNN for allowing biden to faceplant in the debate.
Biden / Harris Watch –
He’s staying - he’s going . . . . . Round and round the discussion goes where it stops nobody knows.
It is becoming apparent that biden realizes he is in trouble (at least between 10 am and 4 pm) and has spent the time post debate running around giving speeches to try to bolster his image that he is healthy and in charge. That hasn’t been working out so well for him as his latest gaff during an interview with a Philadelphia radio station stating that he’s “proud” to be “the first black woman to serve with a black president” .
Things are so bad some democrat supporters are pitching the plan to have AI do the campaigning for biden.
More congressional democrats are banding together to demand he step down, along with deep pocket donors and useful idiots in the MSM and influencer arena. Congressman Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) became the first Democratic lawmaker to openly call on President Biden to step aside. But according to a Reuters report, more than two dozen congressional Democrats are preparing to do the same.
Revelations that hunter is sitting in on major meetings isn’t helping the perception any.
Three in four U.S. voters think Joe Biden is “just too old to be an effective president,” results of a new national survey reveal.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of registered voters, conducted June 28-July 2, finds that 74% at least “somewhat” agree that Democrats’ 2024 candidate for reelection is too old to do the job, with more than half (53%) “strongly” agreeing. Voters think Biden’s too old by more than a three-to-one margin over the 22% who at least somewhat believe he’s not.
The younger the voter, the more likely the belief that Biden’s too old to do the job. Fully 84% of those 18-29 agree that Biden’s too old, with 64% strongly agreeing. But, even among those 65+, 64% agree he’s too ancient, including 44% who strongly agree.
BOTTOM LINE - I think a number of political pundits on both sides have got it bracketed in - biden has a week, maybe two at the tops to regain support of key democrat factions and demonstrate competence mentally or he either has to bow out or is forced out in some manner. The tail spin is changing to a direct plunge towards earth and the democrat leadership wants to stop the bleed now, so they have some time to repair damage before the elections.
China –
Cuba has upgraded and expanded four electronic surveillance facilities, including one near the Guantanamo Bay naval base, amid growing concern about China’s spying efforts in the United States’ backyard, according to a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“While China’s activities on the island remain shrouded in secrecy, satellite imagery analyzed by CSIS provides the latest and most comprehensive assessment of where China is most likely operating,” the report reads.
The report pointed to four active sites at Bejucal, El Salao, Wajay, and Calabazar. It added that the four locations are “strategically located” and are “among the most likely locations supporting China’s efforts to spy on the United States.”
OBSERVATION - Poor foreign policy by the regime has allowed Cuba to capitalize on China’s and Russia’s interest in placing stress on the US via many means. In this case, intelligence collection facilities. In Russia’s case, stationing potential Russia missiles. Being a former member of the intelligence community I would certainly hope NSA and others have been bolstering capabilities against China, but I fear that the politicization of the alphabet agency has them more concerned to collect against US citizens than china.
Russia -
*****
Talks between Putin and Orban have started in the Kremlin. Orban has been considerably outspoken in opposition to support to Ukraine.
Vladimir Tarabrin, Russian ambassador to the Netherlands threatened military strikes on the Dutch airbase at Volkel, where the F-16s to be transferred to Ukraine are currently located.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The use of crippled/wounded Russian men as soldiers is not the only or even the most important indicator that Russia has hit the mobilization wall
Nor are female prisoners, foreign mercs or DPRK soldiers.
Russia is now deploying Hitlerjugend-esque child-soldiers.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 32 Shahed drones overnight. Odesa, Mylolave, Cherksey, and Kyiv were targeted areas.
Ukraine pulls back into Chasiv Yar as Russians were able to consolidate gains across the eastern canal.
Russians push harder along the Ocheretyne axis.
Ukrainian forces continue to slowly push back Russian troops in the Kharkiv sector.
Outlook —
Analysts and OSINT are looking at what appears to be Russian command choice to escalate offensive operations near Toretsk in mid-June exactly because this area offers Russian forces a flexible point of departure from which they can either attack north towards Chasiv Yar or west/southwest in the Avdiivka direction, depending on whatever route of attack the Russian command deems the most immediately promising.
However, the main Russian force concentration in the Toretsk area is formed of lower-quality forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Territorial Troops, which will likely struggle to properly execute attacks, especially as Ukraine receives additional military aid over the coming weeks and months. Thus on a tactical level, the forces may not be competent enough to carry out the high commands plans, resorting to the same old mass attacks lacking fire and maneuver and racking up higher personnel and equipment losses for very little terrain captured.
Russian success at Chasiv Yar is minor and the city is not in imminent fear of falling. It has taken Russia some 2-3 months to secure this sliver of the town and still has to deal with the prepared strong holds of the main town. Nor is Russia guaranteed to hold this ground as supply lines are hard pressed by drones and artillery fire and russia is lacking the armor necessary to drive the push.
Europe / NATO General –
Britain swung hard to the left in elections with the leftist Labor party regaining control after 14 years. This swing is counter to that seen in France, Italy and other european countries.
This places Keir Starmer in the lead to take over as PM. He is a heavy pro-immigration and pro-WEF politician. Starmer stands by Israel’s right to self-defense and backs an end to the war only when hostages are freed; he is expected to be more critical of Netanyahu’s government and supports a Palestinian state after a comprehensive peace agreement
OBSERVATION - Migrants have caused problems that the conservatives have failed to address as well as economic woes. Labor has a big hill to climb in that traditionally liberal solutions to these two areas usually make matters worse, not better.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah confirms their senior commander has been eliminated!
- Hezbollah launches nearly 200 rockets in retaliation for the loss of Abu Nuaima
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will dispatch negotiators to resume Gaza cease-fire talks, an Israeli official says. The decision on comes a day after Hamas submitted a new response to a U.S.-backed proposal
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Fighting reported in Gaza City, central Gaza and Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF Eliminates Abu Nuaima, Commander of Hezbollah’s Aziz Unit on the Southern Front.
Why is this important? Hezbollah has three main commanders in the area:
- COMMANDER OF THE NASSER UNIT:
Responsible for the eastern sector, headed by Abu Taleb, who was the most senior Hezbollah commander eliminated by the IDF since the beginning of the war.
-COMMANDER OF THE AZIZ UNIT: Responsible for the western sector, formerly led by Abu Nuaima.
- COMMANDER OF THE BADR UNIT: Oversees the area to the north up to the Litani River.
The elimination of Abu Nuaima would deal a severe blow to Hezbollah’s strategic operations in the region.
Hezbollah responded to the death of their commander earlier by launching nearly 200 rockets towards northern Israel.
IAF has been hitting numerous targets in response to the rocket attacks. Many include Hezbollah command centers and other infrastructure.
NOTE - I reported in the last post about Israel hitting a vehicle in Lebanon and said it was likely a Hezbollah big wig. Now we know how big.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iranian General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, recently announced that the ayatollah regime was looking for an opportunity to launch a direct missile attack against Israel.
“We are hopeful of the arrival of the opportunity for [conducting] Operation True Promise 2,” Hajizadeh said, according to the Iranian state-controlled Mehr News Agency.
“Operation True Promise,” the Iranian regime’s official name for its unprecedented attack in April, when Tehran fired over 300 aerial projectiles – a combination of drones, missiles and ballistic missiles – against Israel.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-38/
OBSERVATION - Part of Iran’s ongoing threats and propaganda directed against Israel in an effort to deter an attack on Hezbollah.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Intensive Israeli security force operations in much of the area.
——— FORECAST ————————-
I see no real change in the current operation tempo. Israel sucking hamas into kill zones by letting them think they can reconstitute without harm, then harming them.
The battlefield shaping continues by Israel against Hezbollah. Losses of senior leadership has got to have the remaining leadership wondering just who is tipping Israel off to their locations and movements. A paranoid leadership becomes a poor leadership impacting war preparations. Still holding to an August window opening for the Israeli operation to kick off.
It doesn’t look like Hezbollah is willing yet to try to preemptively strike Israel. Only 100-200 rockets in retaliation for the death of Abu Nuaima is pretty small considering.
Turkey –
Erdogan plans to invite Syria’s Assad to Turkey
OBSERVATION - There has been a great deal of friction growing between Syrians and Turks of late, resulting in a lot of violence. While this has a surface appearance of working to attain ‘peace’, it has more the goal of Erdogan exerting dominance over Assad.
Misc of Note –
On July 3, 2024, California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in response to the destructive Thompson Fire near Oroville in Butte County. The fire began on July 2 and has rapidly spread to approximately 1 619 ha (4 000 acres), prompting evacuation orders and mobilization of firefighting resources.
OBSERVATION - Fire season is hitting early and bad for Kalifornia and likely spread to the rest of the west as summer progresses. If you live in fire prone regions - get your self ready now with repacking in the event of an evacuation and triple check your ways out. Fires are unforgiving and if you wait until the last minute you may well be dead.
Same WARNING for Freepers in the Gulf/Alantic regions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) downgraded Hurricane Beryl to a Category 4 storm from a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale on Wednesday morning. Beryl is the earliest hurricane on record to strengthen into a Category 5 as it churns across the southeastern Caribbean Sea. It is forecasted to hit the Yucatán Peninsula on Friday and afterward poses a threat to US oil and energy critical infrastructure on the Gulf Coast.
Get your preps for the hurricane season up and ready now. Don’t delay.