New threats brewing on the horizon as Trump closes in on Jan 20. The seemingly quiet is not what it seems.
Talking with my wife yesterday - this is not the same country we grew up in.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
So far, BLM has not gotten any traction with its call for protests/riot as a result of the Penny verdict. IMHO, in part because the individual threatened blacks and Penny was assisted by blacks. And they are sick and tired of all the crime and violence in the subway on a daily basis.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The IG report was released yesterday and found that the FBI had 26 confidential human sources at the Capitol on January 6, including four who entered the Capitol building and 13 who entered the “restricted area” around the Capitol, according to the DOJ Inspector General.
At least 17 committed offenses for which other J6er have been federally charges. No CHS was charged.
OBSERVATION - This places Wray and Garland having perjured themselves before congress in sworn testimony. This also corresponds to video evidence of these same govt agents encouraging violence and criminal actions. That they committed criminal acts as well has been suppressed. Many J6rs in prison and jails now have a valid defense of entrapment - especially the ones who just walked in and touched nothing.
This further validates the claims that the J6 was instigated by the deep state agents in the alphabet agencies in a effort to crush any resurgence of the Trump agenda or republican opposition.
It’s no coincidence that FBI Director Wray announced his resignation just prior to the release of the IG report exposing activities of FBI confidential human sources at the Capitol on Jan 6.
RELATED - A new Inspector General report shows that the U.S. Department of Justice reportedly spied on Kash Patel, who was recently selected as President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and other federal employees without notifying the courts.
According to Just the News, the Inspector General’s report, which was released on Tuesday, shows that the Department of Justice spied on two House members and 43 staff members and asked the courts to help hide the investigation. Tuesday’s report showed that the Department of Justice obtained the phone records of Patel, who worked as a staff member for the Republican-led House Intelligence Committee at the time of the investigation.
RELATED - There were scores of federal and local assets from not only the FBI at the protest and riot that day but plenty of other three-letter federal and local agencies. Metropolitan Police had active agents provocateur on the ground. DHS, ATF, and other Beltway three letter agencies were on site that day.
Further, the govt paid for known members of the “Proud Boys” to come and be part of the effort at the capitol, participating in efforts to rile the crowd into the actions that have resulted in so many being charged. Yet they were not charged for their criminal acts.
Before he died, the former U.S. Senate Sergeant at Arms called for an investigation of the “professional agitators” who started the “violent, coordinated” attack.
OBSERVATION - More documentation showing just how out of control the DoJ was under Garland. Clearly it has been weaponized and the fact that they tried to hide their efforts only points to the inherent criminality of their efforts.
FBI deep staters who participated in this are probably wetting their pants. Same for the DoJ when Bondi takes the helm. We cannot have crap like this and call ourselves a ‘free’ society - these are tactics of the communists and other tyrants.
***
NYC Mayor Eric Adams seems to have taken the red pill. Whipsnapping from being a typical liberal in the metro area, he has suddenly embraced the efforts to deport illegals, get tougher on crime (supported the not guilty verdict in the Penney trial) and now endorsing involuntary commitment of the mentally ill who are terrorizing NY commuters on a daily basis.
He also went on a rant over 500,000 children that cannot be accounted for in the illegal and CPS hands.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Buried in the thousands of commutes and pardons were Chinese spies and pedophiles who should have never seen the light to day. Only time when the money trail will start to appear.
Illegal Immigration –
The biden regime has been caught trying to sabotage Trump efforts to finish the border wall.
Videos obtained exclusively by The Daily Wire from a U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agent show unused sections of the wall being hauled away on the back of flatbed trucks from a section of the border just south of Tucson, a hotspot for illegal crossings during the Biden administration. The agent estimates that up to half a mile per day of unused border wall is being moved.
‘They are taking it from three stations: Nogales, Tucson, and Three Points,’ the border patrol agent, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, told The Daily Wire. ‘The goal is to move all of it off the border before Christmas.’
OBSERVATION - Color me not surprised that they would attempt this.
China –
Chinese naval exercises continue south of Taiwan.
Russia -
*****
Russia trying to recoup / stabilize some of their losses in Syria - see Syria.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
After 3 nights of quiet, overnight, Russia launched a very large missile and drone attack against Ukraine, targeting primarily its energy infrastructure.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports
Shot down:
0/4 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles
1/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 KN-23 ballistic missile
80/86 Kalibr/Iskander-K/Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles
0/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
80/193 Shahed drones
Another 105 (!) Shahed drones were supressed by electronic warfare. Five returned to Russia, one to Belarus.
5 of Ukraine’s 9 operating nuclear reactor units have reduced power output due to renewed attacks on energy infrastructure
Russian Ministry of Defense: “On December 11, 2024, Ukraine launched a missile strike with six ATACMS missiles at a military airfield near Taganrog. In response, Russia carried out a massive precision strike on critical fuel and energy infrastructure in Ukraine, targeting facilities vital to the military-industrial complex. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the targets were hit successfully.”
Russian losses per 13/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1390 men
+5 tanks
+31 AFVs
+6 artillery systems
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia continues to press the fight in this area, even though reported personnel losses suggest a slowing of the effort.
Summary —
Massive missile / drone attack overnight. Though Ukraine ADA took out many, enough got through to damage the power grid across the country. Some other observations suggest that Russia stockpiles of Shahed drones may be getting smaller. The fact that Russia stopped their daily attacks (ranging in the 60+ drones) for three days indicate that they had to stock up on drones for this attack (around 300). The claim this attack was in response to Ukraine using ATACMS in a recent strike, but evidence shows the planning was already in progress.
Ukraine’s power grid is already in tatters and will take multiple years (decades) to restore. It is uncertain if this will deter further Ukraine drone/missile strikes into Russia.
Reported Russian losses continue to be down, though still much higher than this past summer. Again, most likely due to poor field conditions, and depleted forces.
Some “discussion” on Ukraine losses. Some have claimed as many as 1 million dead, extrapolating from that another 2 million seriously wounded and out of action. With those losses, Ukraine should have collapsed. More conservative estimates are one fourth to one third that figure, which would be consistent to the tactical situation.
Belarus -
Belarus and Russia signed the Treaty on Security Guarantees within the framework of the Union State. The document defines mutual allied obligations to ensure the defense of the countries.
During the past week, ≈88 Russian drones of the Shahed type flew into Belarus. Most of them subsequently flew to Ukraine. The destruction of the drones by units of the Belarusian Armed Forces was not reported.
On December 6, Lukashenka asked Putin to deploy the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus. According to Putin, the deployment of Oreshnik on the territory of Belarus is possible in the second half of 2025.
https://x.com/hajun_by/status/1867358804574191753?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Progress reported on hostage release and ceasefire in Gaza.
- IAF hit more targets in Syria
- IDF seized the Hermon range between Lebanon and Syria.
- Rumors of a soon Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz: The peaks of Mount Hermon in Syria returned to Israeli control in a moving historical moment Netanyahu and I visited the Golan Heights and saw the peaks of Mount Hermon in Syria, which returned to our control after 51 years.
NOTE - Israel now physically controls the Hermon Range that forms the border between Syria and Lebanon.
***
Rumint. Israel is preparing for potential strikes against Iran nuclear facilities in the very near future -
The Israeli Air Force is intensifying preparations for potential strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, citing the weakening of Tehran’s proxies and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria as strategic opportunities, Times of Israel reported citing Israeli military officials.
Netanyahu spoke to the people of Iran, encouraging them and reiterating that Israel is not their enemy, but the enemy of the corrupt mullahs.
***
Some of the framework for a cease fire with Hama is coming out.
Reports indicated the deal is likely to proceed in stages, beginning under the Biden administration and continuing under Trump’s. The first phase is a humanitarian one and will involve the release of hostages in exchange for a seven-week cease-fire.
However, it remains unclear whether Hamas will agree to a smaller deal without ending the war. Contradictory reports have emerged, with some suggesting Hamas is willing to allow a limited Israeli presence in Gaza while others claim Israel has agreed to a temporary withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, though this remains unverified. Israeli assessments suggest a deal could be reached within two weeks.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hk2tti00njl
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Fighting between Hamas and IDF broke out overnight in the Gaza City area. IAF supported ground units with a number of air strikes.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel hit a few Hezbollah targets in S Lebanon for ceasefire violations.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Now mostly covered under Syria, except where Hezbollah and Iran are involved.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The IAF remains uncertain whether three or four unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were launched by the Houthis toward Israel on Thursday morning. What is clear, however, is that the Houthis have increased their attempts to challenge Israel in recent days. One UAV was intercepted near Eilat, another was downed using soft defenses, and a third disappeared from radar and has yet to be located.
According to IDF assessments, the escalation of Houthi attacks is partly due to significant blows sustained by the “Axis of Evil.” The Houthis are attempting to exploit this weakness to assume a leading role in attacks against Israel. Israeli officials acknowledge that the situation cannot continue and are preparing for the possibility of a third significant strike against Houthi targets in Yemen.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
More mop up by the IAF in Syria. However, on top of the charts are unconfirmed reports that Israel is preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear weapons program associated facilities. According to these reports, Israel’s destruction of Syria’s air defense capabilities has opened the door wide to a massive air attack. Seen with this were Netanyahu’s message to Iranians yesterday. It is generally known that president-elect Trump has given Israel the OK to hit Iran’s nuclear program if necessary. Fact is Trump is considering the same (see Iran below). Israel has a window of opportunity to strike given the events in Syria and the resulting chaos in the Iranian military losing both Hezbollah and their operations in Syria. Should Israel strike, Hezbollah no longer has the capability to mount any large supporting attack - leaving Iran to stand on its own.
As soon Israeli strike will also acknowledge the general opinion that Iran has made a decision to advance its uranium enrichment program in step with the bomb development. A nuke would be Iran’s only real deterrent as its ballistic missile threat has been minimized in addition to the loss of Hezbollah.
Houthi’s are also facing another round of Israeli wrath. They have stepped up their attacks, being the only element of the “Islamic Resistance “ that poses any real threat to Israel. Any attack by Israel could be used as a training exercise for an attack on Iran, testing many components Israel will need to use.
Brings me back to the potential Israeli attack on Iran. The last attack, Israel primarily used standoff weapons with only a few aircraft penetrating into Iranian air space. With Syrian and Iranian ADA down, Israel can have its air refueling tankers much closer to Iran, permitting deeper penetration by IAF jets carrying larger, bunker buster bombs to hit hardened targets that standoff weapons don’t have the punch to hit hard enough. A much more complex operation than last time, thus using a Houthi hit for training and preparation.
A wild card is the Iranian response. With a month before Trump retakes the helm, direct response by the US will be delayed and Trump cannot order the military to make preparations now. So if Israel hits, it will be because it sees the Iranian efforts to develop a bomb as being imminent and cannot wait until after Jan 20.
In Gaza, progress towards some sort of ceasefire and hostage release. Still likely that it will take some more weeks to iron out the details.
In Lebanon, some Israeli units are preparing to pull out under Lebanese and US military eyes.
Iran –
Ahead of his January 20 inauguration, President-elect Donald Trump is evaluating the possibility of preemptive strikes on Iran to stop its growing nuclear program, according to a Friday morning Wall Street Journal report.
According to the WSJ, this move would mark a significant change from previously established US policy on diplomacy and sanctions when dealing with Tehran.
The report outlines the Trump team’s evaluation of potential attacks on nuclear sites, indicating that members of the president-elect’s transition team are exploring this option.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-833297
Syria -
SDF commander-in-chief: We are ready for dialogue with Turkey. We hope Manbij ceasefire agreement will turn into a comprehensive one. We hope Manbij agreement will come into force by tomorrow. There should be no military forces in Manbij according to the ceasefire agreement
***
Russia is close to reaching an agreement with the new Syrian leadership to keep two bases in the country, two sources tell Bloomberg
NOTE - speculation that this agreement is only short term, not an agreement to maintain Russian presence on a long term basis.
***
Israeli air strikes target military sites at Mezzeh Military Airport and Mount Qasioun in the Syrian capital, Damascus. Israel also targeted air defenses in Wadi Hanna on the Syrian-Lebanese border and further north, former government military sites in Masyaf and Homs countryside
***
Representatives from six Druze communities in southern Syria have formally expressed their desire to be integrated into Israel, seeking a future under Israeli governance.
Turkey –
President Erdoğan, in his meeting with Anthony Blinken, noted that Turkey will take measures for its own national security against terrorist organizations such as PKK/PYD/YPG and ISIS operating in Syria.
You are right about that. People’s thing patterns have changed. In other words, people don’t think the ways they used to.
Thanks, Godzilla.
I'm so glad he's gone... don't even care 'why'...
Thank You for your report.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
(FO) Far Left reaction to Luigi Mangione’s assassination of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson has been mostly positive.
Some members of the Far Left expressed their hope that Magione’s actions will spark a class war that leads to routine violent direct action against the for-profit healthcare system and other targets of the capitalist class.
Others described the event as “cathartic,” and tied Mangione’s actions to those of other revolutionary anarchists, such as the one involved in the assassination of U.S. President William McKinley in 1901.
One anarchist criticized the action because Mangione wasn’t part of any liberation movement or mutual support group, he was arrested without sharing his family’s wealth with “the oppressed,” and because his actions didn’t change “the system.”
OBSERVATION - (cross reference to Terrorism) The folks at Forward Observer note that as of yet, no clear linkage have been made from Manigone to the anarchist left. This hasn’t stopped the left from trying to use his murder of the CEO to drum up more radical support
“Deny, Defend, Depose” is fast becoming a rallying call by these leftists.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office, in collaboration with the U.S. Navy Strategic Systems Programs, recently completed a successful end-to-end flight test of a conventional hypersonic missile from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Health issues may force Sen McConnell to resign before his term is up.
Similar for Rep Pelosi, who fell down a flight of stairs in Europe yesterday, reportedly fracturing her hip.
***
Individuals in the DoJ, FBI and other alphabet agencies with ties to the weaponized actions against Trump have repeatedly started to lawyer up in anticipation of arrests and charges related to the massive amount of questionable, if not outright illegal actions against US citizens, especially Trump.
China –
Chinese naval exercises ended yesterday south of Taiwan.
North/South Korea –
In a second attempt, President Yoon Suk Yeol, was impeached by South Korea’s parliament.
Russia -
*****
Russia is evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while continuing negotiations with select Syrian groups about Russia’s longer-term military presence in the country.
These talks appear to have achieved limited success as Rebel forces are permitting Russian units to pull out of bases in the Syrian countryside and move to the main bases in the west by the Med.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a drone attack overnight. Out of 132 launched in total, 58 were shot down by regular air defense and another 72 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Two drones returned to Russia.
Russian losses per 14/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1040 men
+2 tanks
+24 artillery systems
Ukrainian attack drones successfully struck a large Russian oil depot this evening in the city of Oryol. Local sources report that the post-strike fire is currently burning out of control.
Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar.
Overnight, Ukrainian saboteurs were able to sneak onto Russia’s Krymsk Airbase and torch a modern Russian Air Force Su-30 Flanker.
Summary —
Reported Russian losses suggest that the tempo of Russian attacks has dropped by 1/4 to 1/3. Russia still presses on the southern side of Pokrovsk, making small gains.
Strong, but mostly ineffective drone attack overnight. Ukraine has over the past year since the Shaheds were introduced by Russia fashioned a relatively effective defense. IMHO due in large part to the much smaller area needed to be defended than Russia. Ukraine still manages successful drone attacks because targets in Russia are spread out and harder to provide enough defenses for.
ISRAEL –
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Two rockets launched from the central Gaza Strip at southern Israel were intercepted by air defenses a short while ago, the military says. There are no reports of injuries or damage
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The commander of Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Jenin Brigade was reportedly killed after Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces and terrorists exchanged fire on Saturday as the security forces attempted to clear the fighters from the West Bank city of Jenin, according to Israeli and Arab reports.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-833385
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egyptian President discusses with US delegation headed by National Security Advisor efforts to reach ceasefire agreement in Gaza
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Very quiet period for Israel. Intensity of combat in Gaza and Lebanon has gone way down as both areas shifting more to an end game scenario.
Most significant actions have been some additional IAF airstrikes on military related targets in Syria. Many assessments indicate that Israel has destroyed over 80% of Assad’s residual war fighting capabilities, drastically reducing and eliminating them from immediate use by the Rebel forces should they foolishly try and attack Israel in the near future.
Currently, all eyes are looking to see what Israel is reportedly planning to do to Iran. I mentioned previously that I think a strike on the Houthi’s will be first, as a dress rehearsal for an Iranian strike. Distances between Israel and Yemen are comparable to those to Iran and will require the similar need for refueling in an efficient and stealthy manner.
Once again, Syria’s ADA is out of the game - especially the radars that could have tipped off Iran of an incoming attack. Iran is blind and very vulnerable.
Iran –
Iran has issued a threat to Qatar that if their nuclear program facilities are hit, Iran would destroy Qatar’s oil industry.
Syria -
IAF hit several military related targets overnight.
***
The Russian news agency Tass reports: Russia has secured temporary guarantees to maintain its bases in Hmeimim (airbase) and Tartus (naval base).
It appears that Russia is evacuating its bases in other parts of Syria (yesterday, military convoys of Russian equipment were seen heading toward western Syria, to the bases in Tartus and Hmeimim).
So far the rebels are allowing the Russians to carry out the evacuation smoothly.
***
Turkish supported factions continue to attack US backed Kurdish forces in N Syria on key crossings of the Euphrates River. Kurds have been forced back to the east over the past week.
***
Proto-Syrian govt has filed a complaint with the UN over ‘violations’ of the 1974 peace agreement between Israel and Syria. Dispute focuses on Israel occupying the buffer zone with combat units.
OBSERVATIONS - The what I call the proto-Syrian govt is still trying to pull all the pieces together. There appears to be some reliance on the old structure for continuity until it can be modified or replaced.
This interruption in the govt has permitted not only Israel but Turkey as well to operate against targets in Syria to their advantage.
Russian columns retreating to the west have been verbally harassed by Syrians but not attacked. This permission to redeploy is probably the negotiations Russian has been engaging in over the past week. OSINT indicates that at the Russia naval base in Tartus and the air force base near by, equipment continues to be loaded up on cargo aircraft and ships for removal.
My gut feeling is that if the rebels permit Russian to regain full control of those bases, they will be charging a huge amount for the use to include reparations and damage costs. With Russia’s struggling economy, Russia may not be able to pay the premium plus costs.
Misc of Note –
More drones!
U.S. military confirmed drone sightings at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
There were “no impacts to base residents, facilities, or assets,” the spokesperson said.
Der Spiegel said drones were also sighted over locations belonging to German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall and chemicals group BASF.
(Reuters)
OBSERVATION - Some of these reports now around the world may be part of a hysteria and misidentification of these aircraft.
OTOH, Reports of sightings from credible sources continue to grow as well.
There are two practical causes still in my view. One being pranks by individuals and Two, more dangerous asymmetric battlefield preparations by hostile agents, most likely at this stage being China followed by Russia. Until someone gets guts and brings one of these aircraft down, these questions will remain.