Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Biden and the cartels are ramping up the numbers... guess they suspect Trump's going to stop this madness when he's elected.
My worst thought is a pre election amnesty attempt
Thank you Godzilla. Best reporting and synopsis there is.
Welcome to those who asked to be in the ping list. If you want on the ping, just let me know in the thread or PM.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
***
World Economic Forum will be meeting in Davos, 15 – 19 January 2024. The stated theme is ‘Rebuilding Trust’. The 54th Annual Meeting was outlined in a partial release, saying it will “provide a crucial space to focus on the fundamental principles driving trust, including transparency, consistency and accountability.”
OBSERVATION - 2023 was a hard year for the WEF and associated globalists. Though they have managed to push forward on many of its keystone goals, like CBDC, global health and economic controls, they have also faced increasingly stiff pushback from the post wuhan world. The ease at which those draconian wuhan controls were taken by the world are being challenged due to the post-plandemic knowledge that the so called health ‘experts’ were lying through their collective teeth over the jab and alternative treatments along with the destruction of people’s lives for not getting the jab. Now we know the jab is deadly and very probably manufactured to be so. Similar runs for global food control - rioting farmers; elimination of fossil fuels - China and India rejecting recent COP28 restrictions; and growing concerns over the WHO globalist hijacking of govts via ‘health emergencies’, for just a short list.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is purchasing millions of dollars worth of military-grade equipment, including night vision goggles and other weapons. This in parallel with the substantial spending by the likes of the IRS for similar gear.
OBSERVATION - This raises two very ugly specters that could happen. The first is that these tactical groups in the alphabet agencies will be used to enforce a govt crackdown on the civilian population - possibly from a false flag event and the declaration of martial law some time prior to the elections. The second fear is that this gear and weapons will be handed out to illegals who have been brought here by the left to wage war in ‘red’ areas of the country in an effort to neutralize or tie up those elements response to a govt tyrannical takeover - again associated with the election. All the way back to the Before Years and 0bama, govt has been spending exorbitant amounts of money on items like this and even causing an ammo shortage. I think it is likely the regime / swamp are looking at more ‘reliable’ fighters than the military which the majority of the rank and file would reject to be used for a crack down. Also remember - 0bama called for another armed component equal to the military - for an unstated reason.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Follow up on the New Years vehicle loaded with gasoline. The driver has been identified as Michael Avery, a suspected bipolar man from Syracuse. Avery was transported to the hospital with life-threatening injuries
Avery is believed to have been an “emotionally disturbed person,” had rented a hotel room in Rochester, where police conducted a search and recovered a suicide note and journal, according to law enforcement sources.
Investigators are reviewing the journal for any clues into the attack and have interviewed family members who said they believed the suspect had bipolar disorder, though he was never officially diagnosed, according to sources.
Incident has been removed from a potential terror attack investigation by the police and FBI.
***
Al-Qaida is attempting to rejuvenate itself and raise fighters to resume its attack on the US and west. Growth of the internet and various associated communications channels, AQ is looking to more widely disseminate bomb making and other combat doctrine materials for global jihadists. The surge in AQ internet proselytizing began shortly after the Hamas attacks of Oct7 and may be timed to use the heightened jihadist fever those attacks triggered.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
Pfizer has completed a 43 billion acquisition of Seagen, a small drug company that treats turbo cancers and barely makes $2 Billion per year.
OBSERVATION - Create the sickness, cash in on the cure.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Release of the Epstine list has been delayed by a women currently identified as #107.
***
Trump filed a lawsuit on Tuesday challenging Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows’ decision to disqualify Trump from Maine’s 2024 ballot.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden returned from his latest vacation with a sunburn.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
U.S. security officials are warning about the vulnerability of water utilities to cyber threats. This follows a hack of the Aliquippa water authority in western Pennsylvania. The attack was by an anti-Israeli group.
OBSERVATION - Infrastructure attacks are a significant concern. Hostile elements could adjust controls, add too much or too little chemicals to drinking water and contaminate it. Alter sewage treatment. Disrupt and damage the power grid at key nodes, etc. Aliquippa is small potatoes, but an example of potential harm that could be created by an attack.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelyhood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Economic Impact –
European Union is imposing sanctions on the largest diamond company in Russia, “Alrosa”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree F range with on again, off again rain and snow.
Temperatures in Ukraine are expected to drop beginning Jan 6 and onwards, with snow, blizzards and ice. In the northern, central and eastern regions temperature at night are expected to drop to -10 to-15 deg F, and in the northeast down to 18-20 degrees F.
RUMINT – Unconfirmed reports that Russia lost anther Su-34 overnight.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action on the ground.
The Russian missile barrage ceases for a day at least. Ukraine targeted Belgorod overnight with the Russian Ministry of Defense claiming air defense shot down 6 Tochka-U missiles and 6 missiles of Vilkha MLRS. Explosions were also reported in Sevastopol, from a claimed shoot down of a missile.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. Increasingly cold temperatures will gradually freeze the ground, but this won’t happen for sometime yet.
Patriot take down of Russia’s vaunted hypersonic missile is good news for Ukraine and US and bad for Russia. These hits help the computer refine its calculations for the next round being fired at it.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli drone strike took out Hamas #2 leader - Saleh Al-Arouri
- Hezbollah and Hamas vowing retribution for the attack.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas - We will stop ceasefire talks and prisoner exchanges after the assassination of Al-Arouri. There were unconfirmed reports prior to the hit on Al-Arouri that Hamas as in the process of conceding a lot of its demands on Israel for the release of hostages.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF forces continue their search and destroy operations, moving progressively southward into central and S Gaza. Heavy fighting reported in Khan Younis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli drone attack killed several key Hamas leaders - Saleh Al-Arouri, Abu Amer, , Samir Fandi and Azzam Al-Aqraa. Al-Arouri, deputy head of Hamas, was also considered to be the leader of the political side of Hamas and was very closely linked to Iran and Hezbollah. Abu Amer, was head of Hamas operations in southern Lebanon. IAF targeted the Hamas operations center in the heavily Hezbollah affiliated Dahiya district of southern Beirut with reportedly two bombs.
In a coincidence not to be missed by Iran and Hezbollah, the assassination comes on the eve of the anniversary of IRGC Qassem Soliemanis assassination in Iraq.
The Israeli Army announced that they have raised the state of alert on the northern border as a result of taking out Al-Arouri. A senior Israeli official also told Israel is preparing for a significant retaliation by Hezbollah for the Arouri assassination including by launching long range missiles on targets in Israel
Hezbollah said the assassination of Hamas official and commanders in the heart of southern Beirut is a dangerous assault on Lebanon, its people, security, sovereignty and resistance, containing political and security messages, and that “it will not go unanswered”
Lebanon announces that it will submit a complaint to the UN Security Council against the backdrop of targeting Lebanese sovereignty
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah planned speech today is going ahead despite earlier reports.
The Iranian President: We condemn the Israeli assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri, who was a prominent fighter who defended the rights of his people
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis reportedly launched 3 Anti-Ship ballistic missiles at a commercial shipping vessel near the Bab al-Mandab Strait roughly 33nm off the Coast of Eritrea, causing no damage to the ship or casualties
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UNIFIL: We are concerned about any potential escalation that could have devastating consequences for the population on both sides of the border
***
Danish shipping giant Maersk announced Tuesday that it will halt all shipping through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden following the weekend attack on one of its vessels from Houthi militants, CNBC reported.
The company’s decision extends the 48-hour pause it implemented on Sunday in the aftermath of the attack by the Yemen-based rebels.
“We have made the decision to pause all transits through the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden until further notice,” the company reportedly told customers in an update.
Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd will continue to divert its vessels away from the Suez Canal and around the Cape of Good Hope for security reasons, a spokesperson for the company said Tuesday.
“We monitor the situation closely day-by-day, but will continue to reroute our vessels until Jan. 9,” the spokesperson for the world’s fifth biggest container liner said in reply to a query.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. They have most of N Gaza cleared and are moving efforts to central and S Gaza.
Yesterday’s assassination strike on Saleh Al-Arouri has kicked the hornets nest. Tightly linked to Iran and Hezbollah, some analysts considered him to be the real leader of Hamas. The strike makes clear that Israel is willing to keep its word at striking Hamas leadership no matter where they are.
Now concerns switch to how serious of a retaliation will Hezbollah launch. If they pull out the heavy rockets, fighting could escalate exponentially with even Iran getting directly involved. The magnitude of the Israeli hit basically guarantees retaliation of some manner, if Hezbollah/Iran is to save face.
Israel is still manned strongly enough for action, even with the announced release of Reservists. Those reservists could rebound back with short notice.
Prior to the hit, it was becoming apparent that Hamas was becoming desperate to gain some breathing space with negotiators ready to waive the condition of a final ceasefire and the withdrawal of IDF soldiers from Gaza in their ongoing talks with Israel for a second hostage release. The terrorist group reportedly open to the release of 40 hostages in exchange for 120 prisoners held by Israel, one source said, adding that Hamas had demanded a one-day ceasefire in exchange for each hostage released, but Israel refused.
Hamas has sustained massive losses in leadership, fighters, material and bases of operation. Israel’s offensive plan was one that Hamas didn’t expect and are being taken apart piecemeal.
Iran –
BREAKING - At least 73 killed and 171 wounded following twin blasts at Qassam Soleimani memorial site in the southeastern city of Kerman, Iran.
Iran has labeled the explosions terrorists attacks but has not yet directed blame at anyone specifically.
OBSERVATION - There are plenty of dissidents in Iran that could have pulled this off besides Israeli infiltrators. Most likely Iran will point the finger at Israel and the US as a simple scape goat, especially in light of the hit on Al-Arouri.
Turkey –
Turkey has vowed to block two British Royal Navy ships intended for Ukraine to pass through its waters. Last month, Britain said it would transfer the two minehunter ships to the Ukrainian navy to help bolster its sea operations in its war with Russia.
However, the Turkish presidency’s communications directorate has now said it will not let the vessels through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.
When Russia first waged war on Ukraine in 2022, Turkey sparked an international agreement that blocks the passage of military ships through the passages for those at war.
Yesterday, the NATO member country says it has implemented the 1936 Montreux Convention impartially and meticulously in order to prevent a military escalation in the Black Sea.
OBSERVATION - A legitimate refusal by Turkey who on this point at least is maintaining neutrality.
Please add me to the ping list. Thank you!
Added
When hell freezes over I'll trust them.
I’ve started to post upcoming meetings of importance as applicable at the top of subject headers. Allows me to better track upcoming events for related news. I’ll post those section daily even if they don’t have any more specific event being reported.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
Hundreds of Pro-Hamas protesters and other activists are occupying and have shut down the California State Capitol in Sacramento, California. These protesters have disrupted the Assembly session on opening day, demanding a permanent ceasefire and an end to all U.S. military aid to Israel.
OBSERVATION - Couldn’t happen to a better state IMHO. I expect that this kind of political pressures - sit ins and protests in State/Federal buildings - to increase since they’ve lost the visibility of protesting and disrupting holiday events.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Multiple bomb threats targeting state capitol buildings across the United States led to evacuations Wednesday morning. At least six state capitol buildings were impacted by the bomb threats, including Connecticut, Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi and Montana. A representative for Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams said multiple secretaries of state nationwide received threats in a “mass email,” according to the Lexington Herald-Leader.
OBSERVATION - The intimidation war is on just three days into 2024. You can expect more of this.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
***
Xerox announced plans to cut 15% of its workforce as part of a plan to implement a new organizational structure and operating model. The company had about 20,500 employees as of Dec. 31, 2022, per an SEC filing, meaning the layoffs will likely affect more than 3,000 employees. Xerox said it will carry out the cuts this quarter.
OBSERVATION - More cuts by major companies, symptomatic of a (pre) recession economy.
***
U.S. Federal Reserve officials appeared increasingly convinced at their meeting last month that inflation was coming under control, with “upside risks” diminished and growing concern about the damage that “overly restrictive” monetary policy might do to the economy, according to minutes of the central bank’s Dec. 12-13 policy meeting.
As a result “almost all participants indicated that...a lower target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate by the end of 2024,” the minutes said, with “a number of participants” highlighting increased uncertainty about how long strict monetary policy would need to be maintained given the progress achieved on lowering inflation.
The minutes shed little light on when rate cuts might commence.
Indeed participants also noted “an unusually elevated degree of uncertainty” about the outlook, with further interest rate increases still possible.
OBSERVATION - There is still some uncertainty in the Fed on 2024, but it still looks like they are trying to justify rate reductions to assist biden by goosing the economy into looking better prior to the elections.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Release of the Epstein list finally did come out after a short court hold. The expected participants were named - except Trump who never visited the island or Epstein’s NM ranch where the child abuse occurred. Leftist apologists and the MSM have spent the overnight hours circling the wagons. The aftershocks will be severe.
***
biden released his first ad for the presidential campaign. Basically, half of America is a threat to America and need to be eliminated.
It appears that he is planning to make this the central theme of his campaign and will follow that narrative when he gives his Jan 6 speech from Valley Forge. His projected hate filled rhetoric serves a second purpose of dehumanizing republicans and in specific, Trump supporters - waving the flag for leftist violence in order to protect ‘democracy’. So called ‘white supremacy “ is the codeword.
Illegal Immigration –
Can cross reference the following to Terrorism as well as CW2 -
Border Patrol estimates that the cartels are earning $32 million a week from illegal aliens in the Del Rio, Texas sector alone.
OBSERVATION - This is one of the under the radar issues of the illegal immigration brought into the country by biden. Law enforcement has its hands full dealing the the massive increase in crimes from just the illegals themselves, they find themselves undermanned and under gunned to face the cartels.
China –
Four Filipino navy vessels and the Carl Vinson Strike Group are conducting the patrols in the South China Sea, an area that China claims as its own. Filipino state media and USNI only identify three of the four Filipino vessels. Two of the Filipino vessels are the largest surface warfare class in their fleet. Associated with these maneuvers is a probable resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal this week, according to Chinese media. Previous resupply missions have been harassed by Chinese naval elements, most recently using water cannons to attack and disable Philippine vessels.
OBSERVATION - Recent treaties/agreements between the US and Philippines cover US support of Philippine territories in the S China Sea region. If US vessels show up, it will be a big show of muscle counter to the Chinese presence and could result in some form of combativeness such as ship ramming and high pressure water cannons directed towards US ships. A nasty game of chicken could result in some degree of combat.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelyhood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Logistics –
Wall Street Journal: Russia is moving forward with its plans to purchase Iranian ballistic missiles.
These missiles would be the relatively short range variety. Russia has been negotiating for missile/drone systems from Iran for over a year now.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is using an increased number of women on the front lines. Allegedly, these women have been recruited from penal/prisions with the same offers of convictions being pardoned as the men.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree F range with on again, off again rain and snow.
Temperatures in Ukraine are expected to drop beginning Jan 6 and onwards, with snow, blizzards and ice. In the northern, central and eastern regions temperature at night are expected to drop to -10 to-15 deg F, and in the northeast down to 18-20 degrees F.
Relatively slow night for Ukraine ADA, shooting down 2 Shahed drones. However, explosions were reported in Kryvyi Rih and Kropivnitsky after suspected ballistic missile launches from occupied Crimea.
Followup on yesterday’s Rumint - Russia apparently did lose anther Su-34. An Su-34 aircraft of Russian Air Forces caught fire at Shagol airfield near Chelyabinsk last night
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. Very little other action of any significance.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. Increasingly cold temperatures will gradually freeze the ground, but this won’t happen for sometime yet.
The advent of cold weather is one that for the past couple winters has caused Russia serious logistical problems. The soldiers are poorly equipped with warm clothing and warm shelter. This will increase the spread of diseases and lower morale. This will also increase Russian use of buildings to hunker down in large numbers - ripe for Ukrainian targeting.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel takes out 4 Hezbollah leaders in overnight airstrikes.
- Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah specifically threatening Israel.
- US struck Iranian backed militia leader in Bagdad (see Iraq below)
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel [says] Hamas has been training children to join their campaign of terror and has even deployed the youngsters to the frontlines to “deliver messages and ammunitions.”
“During the ongoing war, Hamas has positioned children on the frontlines, sending them to deliver messages and ammunition while its operatives hide in shelters.”
They have also been used as scouts, being able to get close to Israeli units and then reporting to Hamas et al elements who attack shortly thereafter.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF forces continue their search and destroy operations, moving progressively southward into central and S Gaza. Heavy fighting reported in Khan Younis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke on Wednesday evening … Hezbollah leader explicitly threatened Israel, saying, “If the enemy thought of starting a war on Lebanon, then it will be a war without a ceiling, without borders, without rules. He knows what I mean. Our missiles and our ability and our means, it is enough just to mention that because we are not afraid of war. Those who think of fighting with us – the war with us will be very, very expensive. If there is a war on Lebanon, then we will go all the way without rules.
Note - Nasrallah spoke from an unlocated underground bunker somewhere in Lebanon.
Within hours after the Nasrallah speech, Israel has conducted another major airstrike on Lebanon, this time against a residential building which housed Hezbollah members.
“Two security sources told the Reuters news agency that four Hezbollah members were killed in the attack on what had been described as a residential building,” Al Jazeera reports. Importantly, “It brings the number of Hezbollah members killed on Wednesday to nine”
OBSERVATION - Israel is upping the ante by increasingly targeting Hezbollah leadership in addition to key operational sites in S Lebanon. Some suggest that Israel is trying to get a response from Hezbollah/Iran that Israel can use to justify a wider attack on Hezbollah.
***
Canada, Germany and Sweden have called on their citizens to immediately leave Lebanon
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The United States, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United Kingdom released a Joint-Statement today in what is now seen as a “Final Warning” to the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen; that if they do not Immediately halt their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and their unlawfully detaining of vessels alongside their crews, then they will bear the responsibility and consequences of their actions.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. They have most of N Gaza cleared and are moving efforts to central and S Gaza.
The latest attacks by Israel targeting high level Hezbollah officers in Lebanon in addition to the Hamas 2d in command has continued to place increasing pressure on Hezbollah and Iran’s supporters to do something big in retaliation. Iran/Hezbollah, angered, do not appear to be ready to bite at that bait as Israel would use it to bring the hammer down on S Lebanon’s Hezbollah network. As long as Hezbollah holds their fire though, Israel will continue to go after key leadership as well as facilities critical to any Hezbollah response to the eventual fight. A very dangerous plan by Israel, but one they have already readied its contingency on.
Israel is most likely getting a lot of help from Lebanese - as Hezbollah has created a lot of enemies among the population. This is making Israel’s current targeting up to date and timely.
The coalition pulled together to oppose Houthi attacks on shipping has reached a critical point of having to either fish or cut bait. Since their announcement there have been no attacks on shipping, but this is likely due to Houthi evaluating the situation and likely dispersing its assets to minimize losses should they be attacked. As it stands, any attack would be essentially limited to the naval assets at hand, perhaps some USAF aircraft who’ve been designated to support US forces in Iraq and Syria thrown in. IMHO if this is the strike package , it is way too small. US strategic bombers should be used as well to create a very big bang - the only language radical islamists seem to understand in the region. The Houthi fought Saudi Arabia to essentially a standstill because SA couldn’t muster the massive strike necessary to put Houthi efforts down. Any ‘standard’ US strike package may well be inefficient and see a Houthi counter attack by its assets shortly after any strike - just to show how weak the attack was. Strength/power is what is recognized in the region.
Iran –
BREAKING - Iran has not officially attributed the twin blasts at Qassam Soleimani memorial site in the southeastern city of Kerman, Iran to any specific group. Reports that the first blast was initiated by a suicide bomber then the second on a timer. Some suspension that ISIS was involved.
Iraq -
Overnight there was an airstrike believed to have been from coalition / US forces on the PMF logistics headquarters, Central Baghdad.
According to Reuters - according to Iraqi police sources: At least two pro-Iranian faction fighters were killed and five others were wounded in Baghdad. Iraqi factions confirm that one of dead was “Abu Taqwa”, commander of the Iranian backed 12th Brigade in the Al-Nujaba Movement. The airstrike targeted a car carrying Mushtaq Talib Al-Saeedi (Abu Taqwa).
The Iraqi Ministerial Council for National Security went into an emergency meeting headed by Al-Sudani following the attack.
Prime Minister of Iraq - The international coalition led by Washington bears responsibility for the “unprovoked” attack on Iraqi security forces. The international coalition led by Washington bears responsibility for the “unprovoked” attack on Iraqi security forces. The Iraqi Prime Minister also stated that targeting a security headquarters in Baghdad today is a dangerous escalation and attack on Iraq
Security forces closes all roads to the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and security increased in general around the Green Zone.
OBSERVATION - Potentially dangerous development. Iranian backed militias have been taking increased pot shots at US / Coalition forces in Iraq since the start of the Gaza War. US response has been rather anemic. This strike OTOH is bold.
Heavily Iranian backed PM Al-Sudani announced last month he would see to it that all coalition and in specific US forces are removed from the country - signaling that Iraq will be falling deeper under Iran’s overall influence and control.
Anarchy is the word of the day.
I find it hard to believe that none of these threats can ever be tracked. I suspect that's because most threats are made by liberal groups or are hoaxes. If our side was making threats the FBI and CIA would suddenly become competent - or bend the rules - and find the perps.
Word of the year
It’s easy to create an Anonymous and fake email sent via a library etc.
Would you please add me to the ping list?
Thanks.
Added
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
Muslim Democrat activists and community organizers are moving forward with an “Abandon Biden” movement. This movement is attempting to leverage the younger and more Marxist elements of the democrat party to either force a policy change against Israel or the removal of biden from the presidential ticket. It is an element of the internal civil war the democrats are experiencing . Growth of this movement requires monitoring as it could develop into an attack element brining in more violent elements ahead of the elections and those associated protests developing into city burning events.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Breitbart News sources indicate that 20 Jewish institutions in Los Angeles received bomb threats on Tuesday, causing those Jewish schools that had been scheduled to open on January 2 to remain closed.
OBSERVATION - This, combined with the numerous threats to state capitols strongly suggests that the culprits are affiliated with pro-Hamas elements.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
*****
According to jobs data, government hiring has been a major driver for U.S. job growth over the past six months. Growth in state and federal government employment has increased an average of 56,000 jobs per month over the past six months, representing about 31% of all nonfarm payroll jobs created.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 45,000, from +150,000 to +105,000, and the change for November was revised down by 26,000, from +199,000 to +173,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 71,000 lower than previously reported.
OBSERVATION - Numbers, and the data behind them are critical to know. Extract the govt growth and the rest of the economy is seen as clearly struggling.
***
There is a growing potential bond crisis brewing that could devastate the economy. Treasury bond crisis caused major bank failures last spring.
Now corporate bonds are starting come due this year. High-yield corporate bonds have signaled financial trouble brewing before the 2001 and 2008 recessions.
This is just another factor that argues against the fed/regime narrative of a no recession / soft landing scenario.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A B1 Bomber crashed outside the Ellsworth Air Force Base in Box Elder, South Dakota. Ellsworth Air Force Base Public Affairs has confirmed an incident on the base tonight. Fire trucks were dispatched to the scene, where multiple witnesses reported hearing numerous explosions. Reports indicate that the four crew members successfully ejected and are safe. The incident has been contained to the base, and investigators are currently on the scene. The USAF only has about 60 of the bombers operational.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A second batch of Jeffrey Epstein documents have been released. The MSM is struggling to keep a lid on the first batch. More releases expected.
***
Jack Smith in more court filings warns that the ‘immunity argument’ would allow Trump to use the “State of the Union address to incite his supporters to kill opposing politicians”. Trump has filed contempt motions against smith for his continued filings under the court ordered pause to proceedings.
OBSERVATION - The pattern is appearing folks. biden’s first campaign ad is to call all opponents threats to democracy and ‘white supremcists’, a theme he is expected to repeat during tomorrows political speech. Smith’s declaration is so profoundly absurd on its foundation that without the apparent linkage to biden’t campaign theme would be outrageous. It is designed to demonize Trump and supporters - attempting to legitimize leftist physical attacks on the right. This is how civil wars start.
NOTE - Recent history, only democrats have inspired its followers to actually attempt to kill political opponents.
***
Jonathan Turley on X -
“Dozens of Democratic members have already called for the disqualification of up to 126 Republican colleagues under the same sweeping theory used against Trump. These efforts could easily place this country on a slippery slope to political chaos.”
OBSERVATION - Slippery slope indeed. This is banana republic level stuff. This will apply more pressure on the USSC to rule on this ‘insurrection’ clause, else things will have a strong probability of turning violent.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Important dates to remember
Jan 6 - political speech from Valley Forge
*****
Illegal Immigration –
Illegal numbers over the past years denote a very scary trend -
2023: 3,201,144
2022: 2,766,582
2021: 1,956,519
2020: 405,036
2019: 859,501
2018: 404,142
2017: 310,531
2016: 415,816
2015: 337,117
2014: 486,651
2013: 420,789
2012: 364,768
2011: 340,252
2010: 463,382
Three biden years = 7,924,245
TEN years preceding = 4,807,989
This is a deliberate act to bring in illegals folks - a waging of war against America by the democrat left and the regime.
North/South Korea –
The North Korean Military reportedly fired over 200 artillery shells off its west coast overnight near the South Korean Islands of Baeknyeong and Yeonpyeong; SK military sources say none of the shells struck the islands.
The South Korean Military responded with a Live-Fire Drill off their Western Coast of its own
Statement from South Korea’s military after North Korea fires artillery near Yeonpyeong Island.
“We sternly warn that North Korea is solely responsible for this escalating crisis, and strongly urge it to stop immediately.”
S. Korea ordered civilians on Yeonpyeong Island to evacuate amid apparent N.K. provocation. South Korea also ordered residents on second island, Baengnyeongdo, to seek shelter.
OBSERVATION - This island is located off the west coast of the Korean peninsula very close to the line of demarcation. This is not the first instance of NK shelling in that region as the sea to the north is routinely used for an artillery impact zone. A bunch of years ago, a similar situation developed where NK rounds actually hit the island, almost kicking off the renewal of the war. Observers note the NK provocation likely due to a US - SK exercise and live fire training event in the region.
***
Kim has ordered increased production of missile launchers in preparation for a military confrontation with Washington and Seoul.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelyhood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Logistics –
U.S. Intelligence Officials stated today that since December it is believed that the Strategic Missile Forces of the Russian Federation have begun to utilize Short-Range Ballistic Missiles recently acquired from North Korea against Ukrainian targets in the east, likely including the City of Kharkiv, and that Russia has “stepped-Up” its attempts to also acquire Ballistic Missiles from the Islamic Republic of Iran.
North Korea sold Russia their KN-23 which closely resembles the Iskander-M SRBM. In return, it is expected that North Korea will get some sort of military assistance like surface-to-air missiles, aircraft, munition production equipment and/or other advanced technologies.
NOTE - there are questions about the quality and reliability of these missiles. NK artillery shells are notorious at being poorly made and actually dangerous to the Russian artillery crews. These missiles also have at least a 495 Km range - possible longer.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree F range with on again, off again rain and snow.
Temperatures in Ukraine are expected to drop beginning Jan 6 and onwards, with snow, blizzards and ice. In the northern, central and eastern regions temperature at night are expected to drop to -10 to-15 deg F, and in the northeast down to 18-20 degrees F.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action on the ground.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 21 of 29 Shahed drones overnight. Main focus of the attack appears to have been Kryvyi Rih.
Several Ukrainian missiles hit Kreyda district in Belgorod.
Russian forces launched renewed attacks in the Adviivka region - with little to no success but heavy losses.
Apparent missile attack against Sevastopol, Special Military Operation Zone, overnight. Russian sources mention several missiles. It appears that the Russian military’s radar station in Evpatoria may have been hit. Historically, when Ukraine blows-up Russian radar, a bigger attack follows, and in this case the pattern held as there are now reports that the Russian command post in Sevastopol, Crimea was hit.
Russia has started to obtain new sources of missiles to bolster its limited production capabilities - this time N Korean sourced (See Russia above) On Thursday, White House spokesman John Kirby unveiled a map showing where Russia launched the North Korean missiles into Ukraine (near Zaporizhzhia). “We anticipate that Russia will use additional North Korean missiles to target Ukraine civilian infrastructure,” Kirby said
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. Increasingly cold temperatures will gradually freeze the ground, but this won’t happen for sometime yet.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas managed to fire a few rockets towards Israel from strongholds in Khan Yunus
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF forces continue their search and destroy operations, moving progressively southward into central and S Gaza. Search and clear operations in Gaza City have uncovered additional, previously unknown substantial tunnel networks beneath the city’s high rises.
Fighting intensified in Khan Yunis overnight with additional airstrikes by the IAF. Hamas did launch a very limited rocket attack from firing bases in Khan Yunis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued harassment fire from Hezbollah and return artillery and air strikes by Israel. Addition Hezbollah facilities and bases hit deeper into S Lebanon.
RUMINT - Hezbollah pulling its main forces back 2 km from the border. Thoughts are that this would provide for them an initial buffer and time in the event of an Israeli ground assault.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
NBC News: “In a new tactic, Yemen’s Houthis used an unmanned surface vessel loaded with explosives during an attempted attack in the Red Sea today, according to a senior American military official”
This is not new. The Houthi did this to the Saudi Navy in 2019.
Ambrey Limited, a British Maritime Risk Company has stated that they have received reports of Missiles Launches by the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen towards Commercial Shipping Vessels near the Bab al-Mandab Strait within the Red Sea.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Argentina on Wednesday announced the arrest of three foreign nationals, specifically citizens of Syria and Lebanon, who were suspected of planning a “terrorist act” at the Pan-American Maccabi Games.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. They have most of N Gaza cleared and are moving efforts to central and S Gaza.
The escalation cycle appears to have hit a pause, with Hamas and Hezbollah busy burying senior leaders Israel took out in recent days. Hezbollah / Iran show initial hesitancy in launching retaliatory actions, likely concerned about giving Israel justification to pull the trigger and launch a full out assault on S Lebanon.
Houthi’s sea borne drone attack following the warning by coalition forces drives home the sense of a lack of fear of western power. So far it has been all talk by the west and talk doesn’t deter.
Iran –
ISIS has claimed responsibility for the suicide bombing yesterday on the memorial rRoute for the assassination of Qasem Soleimani within the City of Kerman, Iran which resulted in the death of close to 200 Iranians. ISIS in a statement claimed the bombing was carried out by terror speratives, Umar al-Muwahid and Sayf Allah al-Mujahid.
Syria -
Aircraft of the Royal Jordanian Air Force have reportedly just conducted at least two waves of airstrikes on warehouses and facilities linked to Iranian and Assad-backed drug smugglers near the town of al-Ghariyah al-Gharbiyah in southwestern Syria.
Jack Smith is an idiot. Maybe he should ask the FBI to hand over statistics on lives lost in BLM and Antifa Riots compared to Jan 6th - the holy grail of useful idiots.
what about the monster who tried to kill our congressmen at a baseball practice? Get the numbers Jack - then get real. (of course this assumes FBI boys are capable of being honest in their reporting of factual data - which is a big 'if'...)
Thanks Godzilla. Especially for the yearly INVASION numbers.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Massive multi-way protests by German farmers brought Berlin to a complete halt, forcing the Government backed down on several taxation & net zero policy impacting food production.
OBSERVATION - The WEF / globalist plan to shut down food production isn’t going down without a fight. Germans backed the farmers, in part because the general citizenry is fed up with the exponential price increases and economic problems caused by the govt pushing the globalist ‘climate change’ agenda. Multiple countries have farmers / citizens fighting back on efforts to eliminate vast numbers of farms and livestock herds - including here in the US.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
See biden below - his J6 speech laying groundwork for violence directed at republicans or any other who do not support his candidacy.
***
The latest report from the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) on Wednesday revealed what many law-abiding gun owners already know: Americans are exercising their Second Amendment right to purchase, keep, and bear arms at record rates.
After adjusting the nearly 30 million background checks reported by the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System for 2023 for duplicates and for reasons other than for purchasing a firearm, the NSSF declared that Americans bought “at least” 15.8 million firearms last year. This is the highest since Covid and the George Floyd insurrections in 2020.
That number is likely far too conservative, as many states still don’t require background checks for private firearm transactions, while still others allow previously permitted gun owners to add to their collections without going through the background check system.
https://thenewamerican.com/us/americans-continue-to-arm-themselves-at-record-rates/
OBSERVATION - Uncertainty that the 2024 elections will be violence free and that the vote will not be corrupted in any measure is driving much of this. Further, increasing concerns over the govt’s intentions towards citizens who are contrary to the official narrative and policies. 2024 is growing quickly into a very dangerous year and citizens are preparing for the worst.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
*****
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Friday the U.S. economy is achieving a “soft landing” as inflation continues to ease without showing signs of a significant economic downturn.
“What we’re seeing now I think we can describe as a soft landing, and my hope is that it will continue,” Yellen said in an interview on CNN.
OBSERVATION - Her credibility is next to nil. The ‘soft landing’ mantra is that of the regime, trying to keep a happy face on the economy.
***
Multinational investment bank Morgan Stanley downgraded the outlook for the U.S. dollar from ‘Bullish’ to ‘Neutral’ on Friday. The global bank cited that the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts led to the decline of U.S. Treasury yields
OBSERVATION - Govt monetary practices are not getting a pass.
***
A survey that was just conducted by Resume Builder discovered that a whopping 38 percent of U.S. companies anticipate that they will conduct layoffs in 2024…
- 38% of companies say they are likely to have layoffs in 2024
- 52% are likely to implement a hiring freeze in 2024
- Half say anticipation of a recession is a reason for potential layoffs
- 4 in 10 say layoffs are due to replacing workers with artificial intelligence (AI)
- 3 in 10 companies reducing or eliminating holiday bonuses this year
https://www.resumebuilder.com/4-in-10-companies-anticipate-layoffs-in-2024/
OBSERVATION - I have no data to indicate how reliable “Resume Builder” is or the parameters of its survey, so hold its reports at arms length for now. If their methodology is sound, this is a warning klaxon for an inbound recession - not a ‘soft’ landing. Other economic sources do report parallel plans for major layoffs in 2024.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) is in the Atlantic and on its way home after transiting the Strait of Gibraltar on Friday, U.S. 6th Fleet announced.
USS Eisenhower CSG has been moved into the Red Sea.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
Mask mandates have returned to New York City hospitals after a 17% uptick in COVID -19 hospital admissions, the New York Daily News has reported.
Los Angeles County healthcare facilities issued similar requirements last week after the county entered the “medium” level of COVID-19 hospital admissions as defined by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
New York reached a “high” level of respiratory illness activity (COVID, RSV, and the flu) on Dec. 29, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
OBSERVATION - Am I worried? Not at all. Mindless health authorities returning to requirements that have be demonstrated to fail in preventing the infection and spread of wuhan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
January 19 - funding for federal transportation programs, housing and food plans and other resources will expire.
February 2 - funding for Departments of Health and Human Services, Commerce, Labor, State and Defense will expire
****
A third batch of Jeffrey Epstein documents have been released.
***
U.S. Supreme Court granted a writ of certiorari to hear Donald Trump’s appeal of the Colorado case in which he was kicked off the ballot in that state. The Court has ordered an expedited briefing schedule that may allow it to rule in time to preserve the integrity of the primary process. The case will be heard in February and the ruling will apply nationwide.
OBSERVATION - Current composition of the court indicates that a plurality would support Trump. What is needed is a 9-0 decision to shut down cries of an illegitimate court ruling. There is the potential to obtain that solid decision - but watch the leftists put the full court press on the liberal justices.
Biden / Harris Watch –
As expected, biden raged at republicans in his speech commentating J6. biden called Donald Trump ‘sick’ and a ‘loser’ in his first campaign speech of 2024 saying ‘we nearly lost America’ on January 6.
biden launched an incensed attack on his predecessor and potential 2024 general election rival at Valley Forge in Pennsylvania, where George Washington organized an army to fight the British in 1777.
Biden condemned the Republican frontrunner for his ‘lies’ and for making his White House campaign about ‘himself’ in the remarks marking the third anniversary of the Capitol Riot.
At his first public event since a Caribbean vacation, Biden said ‘democracy is on the ballot’ as states around the country launch bids to kick Trump off.
He said Trump invoked Nazi Germany when he referred to his enemies as ‘vermin’ and compared him to a dictator who could destroy the U.S. if re-elected in November.
When he was through, Jill had to come and lead him off the platform as he was apparently disoriented. He turned and shouted “I know how to use power” before leaving.
OBSERVATION - This is the democrat theme for 2024 - most of America is a threat to democracy (more likely threat to democrats) and must be stopped at all costs. This is a direct call to his radical supporters that the leash is going to be released and they can commence violent actions against his opponents IMHO. In spite of efforts to keep the J6 lie hot for the election year, it is not high on the public’s radar screen, ranking well below economy, illegals and war threats. As his first campaign speech, he didn’t speak to any of the issues of real concern to Americans.
Illegal Immigration –
Growing support from republicans in the house to shut down the govt unless the tsunami at the border is stopped. See “Political Front “ above for funding deadlines.
China –
Important dates of notice -
13 January 2024 - Taiwan general election
*****
Foreign investors fled China in December at the fastest rate in 2023 as funds diversified away from the country’s struggling economy, according to Morgan Stanley.
Active long-only investment managers collectively pulled $3.8 billion from Chinese and Hong Kong equities in the month, the third-worst outflow in the country’s recorded history, according to a report from Morgan Stanley and obtained by Reuters. Investors have been continually pessimistic about China’s economy as it fails to show progress in its long recovery from losses taken during the COVID-19 pandemic, most recently failing to meet expectations for growth in the retail sector, increasing sales by 10.1% year-over-year instead of the expected 12.9%
https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/03/foreign-investors-fled-china-december-ailing-economy/
OBSERVATION - Another symptom of the ailing Chinese economy. Depressed Chinese economic output has contributed to the lowered demand for oil - resulting in lower gasoline prices here in the US. But what is worse is the outflow of capital China’s industry needs. Combined with the Country Garden and Evergrande implosions, investors are properly worried about their investments.
***
China has increased use of spy balloons to surveil Taiwan. Three such balloons made an unusual transit over the middle of Taiwan Island on Monday and Tuesday, coming close to a Taiwanese airbase. The Taiwanese Defense Ministry merely stated it would “closely monitor” the balloons, and all other objects that enter Taiwanese airspace.
Observers note that even if ‘harmless’ meteorological balloons, the increased presence is still one of intimidation - likely directed at adjusting attitudes towards a more China-friendly govt.
North/South Korea –
NK and SK are still hissing at each over the yestersday’s artillery incident.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelyhood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree F range with on again, off again rain and snow.
Temperatures in Ukraine are expected to drop beginning Jan 6 and onwards, with snow, blizzards and ice. In the northern, central and eastern regions temperature at night are expected to drop to -10 to-15 deg F, and in the northeast down to 18-20 degrees F.
RUMINT – Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and first deputy defense minister, was allegedly killed in a Ukrainian missile attack in occupied Crimea.
The strike in question did take out senior Russian leaders, but Gerasimov’s presence is not certain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action on the ground.
Slow night with Ukrainian air defense shooting down 2 Shahed drones overnight
Russia pressing attacks along the front from Adviivka southward towards Novobakhmutivka
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. Increasingly cold temperatures will gradually freeze the ground, but this won’t happen for sometime yet.
Expect continued ‘deep game’ action - missiles and drone attacks by both sides on what they consider to be critical targets.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Heavy Hezbollah rocket attacks overnight
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Gaza War is entering its 4th month, since the initial terror attacks by Hamas et al on Oct 7th.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF forces continue their search and destroy operations, moving progressively southward into central and S Gaza. Search and clear operations in Gaza City have uncovered additional, previously unknown substantial tunnel networks beneath the city’s high rises.
Continued heavy fighting in Khan Younis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Confusion overnight as a large drone infiltration alert was given and then reports of a rocket barrage of 30-40 rockets. It appears that these rockets have fallen into oOpen areas. IDF quickly responded with artillery and air strikes.
Hezbollah claims to have launched 62 rockets towards Israel as an ‘initial response to [the Deputy Head of the Political Bureau of Hamas, Saleh] al-Arouri’s assassination’
The IDF says it carried out an airstrike on a Hezbollah command center in the southern Lebanese village of Blida in response to attacks on the border yesterday.
It also says tanks and artillery shelled a number of areas along the border, apparently to foil planned Hezbollah attacks.
Following rocket fire on Kiryat Shmona earlier, the IDF says it is striking the launch sites.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed responsibility tonight for a two-pronged attack using suicide drones against 2 U.S. bases in Syria, targeting the Al-Tanf operations base in Southern Syria near the border with Iraq and Jordan as well as the Al-Shaddadi Base in eastern Syria. No casualties reported.
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, entered the Red Sea as a part of the US effort to prevent Houthis’ attacks on merchant ships - US Naval Institute
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. They have most of N Gaza cleared and are moving efforts to central and S Gaza.
Hezbollah kicked things up a notch overnight with a large rocket assault. This gave Israel reason to hit more significant targets in S Lebanon.
IDF estimate reportedly indicates that Hezbollah can no longer launch assault on Israel without early warning, as the IDF pounds extensive terror infrastructure on Lebanon border. Hezbollah’s plans are likely outdated given new Israeli military posture. I would generally agree. Israel’s response has been very aggressive and well planned. Hamas’ plans crumbled in the face of the Israeli operational plan and dogged assaults on strong points - in spite of those strong holds in many, many cases burrowed (literally) within ‘safe’ zones such as hospitals and schools. Hamas FAFO’d.
Hezbollah has to be seeing this very aggressive Israeli posture and rethinking - fast - its tactical and strategic plans. Though reportedly having underground complexes far more extensive than Hamas, such is dangerously exposed to IAF strikes as static positions. IDF intel is likely been enhanced over the years by the enemies Hezbollah has created over the years from their iron handed rule of Lebanon and specifically S Lebanon. Secondly, Israel has been pushing the red line in their attacks on these Hezbollah facilities - battle field shaping for when the hammer finally falls.
Nor does it seem that Iran is ready to come out slugging either. They have basically written off Hamas and are almost viewing Hezbollah as expendable. As much as Israel wants to nail Hezbollah once and for all - they really want a reason to nail Iran largely to the growing nuclear threat they pose.
This latest Hezbollah barrage - 60-70 rockets - is one of the larger ones since the Gaza War commenced. However, they have an estimated 150,000 rockets available and can launch even larger barrages than Hamas could . Onset of the war with Hezbollah will be intensely bloody and viciously fought. But this is one where Israel has learned from its earlier mistakes in the 2008 lebanon war while Hezbollah appears to have doubled down on its more static defense on the ground / massive rocket attack plans. Israel has shown it is fighting the next war, while Hezbollah the last.
Clock is ticking down for Hezbollah - their choices are being narrowed down and not to their advantage.
Syria -
ISIS launched this morning/night coordinated attacks in area of Palmyra, east Syria. Looks like serious as Russia & SyAF are currently carrying out airstrikes to repel the attack. Government reinforcements also reportedly on their way
Black Swans -
Southern California Weather Force has issued an Earthquake Watch effective now through the weekend into Monday for the chance of a stronger earthquake occurring on the San Andreas Fault.
At 10:55am Pacific Time on January 5th, 2024, a magnitude 4.2 earthquake occurred along the junction point of the San Andreas and San Jacinto Fault zones. This area last shook with a foreshock in the 1970s, which is what this might be.
OBSERVATION - As a geologist and having lived in Kalifornia for a combined period of about 27 years, I monitored prediction sites like this for many of those years. And one after another, these predictions fail. While there are such things as foreshocks, the problem is whether or not that particular quake was actually a foreshock. Note that they claim a foreshock event occurred “in the 1970’s”- with no primary follow on quake designated it was the foreshock for.
I still pay attention to these sites as seismological knowledge has grown over the years. But I wouldn’t base my preps on ‘foreshock’ warnings as the whole of the San Andreas system doesn’t need foreshocks to rip wide open. If you live in a zone of high seismological risk, you better base your preps on that.
As expected, biden raged at republicans in his speech commentating J6... in his first campaign speech of 2024 saying ‘we nearly lost America’ on January 6.
Yes biden, et al. nearly lost America.
Their loss would have been our gain.
Years ago there was a theory out about earthquakes being connected - like a bad one in Japan might assist with causing one in Alaska or CA. What’s your take on that?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.