Threat Matrix 2024

Wild night - see more under ISRAEL.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Markets and economists are looking forward to the Sept Fed meeting with strong expectations of a significant rate cut.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads Democrat Kamala Harris by 3 points in a national head-to-head battle, bolstered by a bump from independent voters, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday.
Trump leads Harris 49% to 46%, according to the survey.

In the 6-way, Trump’s lead among independents is 9 points, 48% to 39%, with Kennedy getting 7% support, according to the poll.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/rasmussen-poll-donald-trump-kamala-harris/2024/08/22/id/1177562/

OBSERVATION - The massive polling machines of the left have been working overtime to place trump down by nearly double digits (remember the polls with hillary about the same period of the election cycle). One may argue about Rasmussen’s accuracy, but they are not necessarily one with a track record of oversampling. As I note in my axiom above, polls at this stage are designed by many to influence. Post labor day, the pollsters are generally forced to deal with reality again.
NOTE - this is based on survey BEFORE Kennedy dropped and committed support to Trump, so it is important to watch the migration pattern of the 7% of independents for Kennedy.

***
The knives have come out in force against RFK and his endorsement of trump. Condemnation is also coming from never-trumpers. Must have hit a lot of sore spots.

Biden / Harris Watch –

With the major escalation in the fight between Israel and Hezbollah, biden is on yet another vacation while harris tramps around the country. WHO IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?

Illegal Immigration –

biden’s resurrection of the ‘stay in Mexico’ policy has apparently lead to a slow down in border crossings. Indicators are that this may not last for long depending on the state of the presidential race. The prospect of mass amnesty may well spike illegal crossings to astronomical levels.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.

RUMINT –
Russian tourists in Crimea report that Ukrainian F-16s struck targets in Crimea for the first time ever this morning.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian Air defense shot down 8 of 9 Shahed drones overnight. Numerous other Russian missile strikes in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine announced the development of a jet-missile drone capable of striking fast and deep into Russia

The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence claimed it successfully struck a field ammunition depot near the village of Ostrogozhsk in Russia’s Voronezh region. The depot contained over 5,000 tons of ammunition, including artillery and tank shells, small arms ammunition, and surface-to-air missiles. Videos released on social media show massive explosions.

Russia continues to press the attack in the Donbas region, clawing out small gains at high cost.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Ukraine OPSEC has ramped up again too with a lot of RUMINT from Russian milbloggers that Russian forces are being out maneuvered, cut off and eliminated again.

Outlook —

On the ground, things are pretty much at a status quo, no major actions appear to be pending. RUMINT of a second Ukraine incursion into Russia could change that, but it has been floating around for weeks unacted on.

Russian launching a campaign of ballistic / cruise missiles and drone is still in the cards, but no apparent timeline for such an attack. It has been a considerable amount of time since the last one.

Lastly, if F16s were playing over Crimea, it could mark a signifiant change in the combat there.

Europe / NATO General –

German Bild: Police arrest Syrian from refugee center after Solingen stabbing

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel launched a massive preemptive strike that severely blunted a Hezbollah missile/rocket/drone attack in revenge for retaliation for the death of Fuad Shukr.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Israeli government issued a series of new censorship regulations for media that includes the damage caused by rocket attacks to “strategic national infrastructure or to military bases.” Reporters need to refer them to the media office before reporting on them to avoid causing any “harm to Israeli forces on the ground”. “This morning attacks by Hezbollah has the potential to escalate into a widespread, multi-front conflict.” The decree warns

***
RUMINT - Sinwar is reportedly running out of supplies and places to hide and is urgently seeking some sort of cease fire or significant military support from Hezbollah in order to survive.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli security officials told the IDF: Hezbollah planned to launch an attack of hundreds of rockets and missiles towards the center of the country, at 5:00AM. About half an hour earlier - around 4:30AM - the air force’s preemptive strike began, which included about 100 fighter jets that thwarted the threat within minutes, and prevented the broad attack into the country. More than 200 targets were attacked in a short time in southern Lebanon. (NOTE - IAF is continuing to hammer targets in Lebanon)

100-150 (some estimate as high as 250) ballistic missiles were specifically targeted at Tel Aviv. Part of a 6,000 Long-Range Missiles, Rockets, and Drones assault planned by Hezbollah. The preemptive strikes by Israel appear to have destroyed of several thousand missiles and rockets along with the launchers necessary to fire them.

Some of the Hezbollah targets were supposed to be the Kirya, Ben Gurion Airport, and the power station in Hadera, among other strategic and civilian targets.

Hezbollah did manage to fire 200 - 300 rockets towards Israel. Military observers were noting that these barrages were “improvised and imprecise”.

Israel navy intercepted several Hezbollah drones overnight, as it seems that it tried to repeat the Houthis success in their attack on Tel Aviv last month, which came from the sea

Hezbollah says it has completed its response to the killing of the terror group’s military commander Fuad Shukr for today, hinting that further responses could come tomorrow. The terror group claims that the explosive drones it launched from Lebanon flew to their intended targets in Israel. Earlier, Hezbollah also claimed to have fired more than 320 rockets at northern Israel.

Israeli army Broadcasting Authority reports no military bases or strategic targets in central Israel were damaged.

The Israeli army Home Front Command has lifted restrictions issued this morning on the area from Tel Aviv and northward. Restrictions remain in communities along the Lebanon border and in the Golan Heights

Israel is expected to continue heavy ‘preemptive’ air strikes across Lebanon for at least the rest of today.

Lebanese Prime Minister calls for ministerial emergency committee to meet to discuss developments in escalation in the south

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Egypt warns of the dangers of opening a new war front in Lebanon after Israel-Hezbollah escalation, and stresses the importance of preserving Lebanon’s “stability and sovereignty and sparing it the dangers of the region slipping into a state of comprehensive instability”

——— FORECAST ————————-

I’ve repeatedly said that Israeli intel in Lebanon was unbelievable. Based on just the targeted assassinations alone - on nearly a daily basis - Israel has Hezbollah’s number. But they are through and as i’ve indicated, they have likely been very busy locating and categorizing the thousands of Hezbollah sites. Overnight this payed off big.

For Israel to coordinate a preemptive strike of this magnitude, they must have had much earlier warning, to maximize the preemptive strikes and take out the attack before it even got off the ground. 100 aircraft were coordinated time on target - and that takes a degree of readiness/planning. The also must have had a solid intel on the timing of the attack, masterfully preempted with as little as 15 minutes prior to launch.

The fact that IAF nailed the ballistic missiles is key in this mission. They commonly have TELs (Transporter, Erector, Launchers) that are very elusive to find, let alone kill. The first gulf war SCUD hunters proved that out. The lost not only the missiles, but the launchers as well, and Israeli intel negated the historical shoot and scoot operation of those systems. Also dramatically reduces further missile launch capability - no launcher, no capability to launch missiles.

We’ll learn more about Israel’s extended airstrikes ongoing later today/tomorrow.

Bottom line - Hezbollah got caught with their pants down due to poor OPSEC and very likely poor leadership coordination due to heavy losses of senior leadership. They were embarrassed bad.

Iran must be seriously rethinking its retaliatory plans. Hezbollah had the best surprise attack capability and it was quickly neutralized and has suffered severe losses. Israeli intelligence operations are deep within Iran as well and any indicators of an impending attack stands a strong chance of being detected as well. The action against Hezbollah sends the message to Iran that similar can happen to them as well.

Analysis was that Hezbollah would either act alone - or as a first wave that would make Iran’s attack more effective. Israel’s defensive posture has not been degraded and any attack by Iran would be absent the Hezbollah support it counted on.

Looking forward, Israel is poised to enter Lebanon and will sooner or later. Hezbollah’s actions in the coming hours/days may provide that trigger for Israel to do so.

If anything, the failed attack by Hezbollah has pushed Iran’s promised attack back. IRGC Chief-Commander Salami’s assessment (see under Iran below) may have shifted significantly.

Iran –

“You will hear good news about Iran’s revenge,” IRGC Chief-Commander Hossein Salami told a crowd of people during a visit to a border area in western Iran, when asked about Tehran’s long-awaited attack on Israel in retaliation for Ismail Haniyeh’s killing.

***
Head of Khash (Iran) intelligence, was assassinated in front of his house. The Sunni Islamist militant group Jaish ul-Adl has claimed responsibility for this attack. Jaish ul-Adl, which operates primarily in Iran’s southeastern regions, has been involved in various violent activities and is known for its opposition to the Iranian government.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future

Global censorship activity is growing utilizing WEF friendly govts in Europe to extend their reach -

- Leftists in the United Kingdom and Europe are doubling down on censorship, calling for the arrest of X owner Elon Musk and the cancellation of the X social media platform to silence opposing views, former White House and Pentagon official Douglas MacKinnon warned Sunday.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/musk-x-censorship/2024/08/25/id/1177819/

- Telegram CEO, Pavel Durov made a critical mistake when he landed his private jet in his home country, France. He forgot that Emmanuel Macron’s France is pretty much a totalitarian state at this point.

He was arrested for alleged offenses related to his messaging app. Not that he personally committed any of those offenses, mind you, but he allowed 1 billion people in the world to use his app to speak freely without any moderators.

France alleges that the lack of moderators to curb misinformation, along with the app using end-to-end encryption that only the sender and receiver can access, has led to criminals using Telegram for all sorts of diabolical activities, including the transmission of child pornography.

So, the billionaire is accused of being complicit in any crimes planned or committed on his platform.

https://notthebee.com/article/tech-billionaire-and-founder-of-telegram-messaging-app-arrested-in-france-for-complicity-in-free-speech-crimes

- The crackdown on free speech continues in the United Kingdom as officials use recent rioting to justify a roundup of citizens who they view as “pushing harmful and hateful beliefs.” The government is ramping up arrests of those with “extremist ideologies” in the latest wave of arrests. The crackdown includes those accused of misogynist views.

https://jonathanturley.org/2024/08/22/the-united-kingdom-unleashes-crackdown-on-free-speech/

OBSERVATION - Even before the creation of the EU, European nations had a love affair with totalitarism. The WEF draws some of its strongest support today from EU et al. Control of the flow of information is essential to global controls - we saw that in play during the wuhan plandemic - to the extent even where people’s lives and careers were ruined only to find out later that they were right all along.
Take careful note of Walz - free speech is what the govt allows you to say.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

***
Merrick Garland issues a warning to Americans telling them to not “interfere” in the certification of the 2024 election.

OBSERVATION - Warning shot to Americans - particularly trump supporters given that nothing was done to the rioters in 2017 when trump was inaugurated.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

There’s strong and growing evidence that the “next” US recession has begun — or will begin soon. Of course, many economists will remain unsure about it, having not forecasted it, or because they refuse to forecast, or because they don’t believe something’s real until it passes them by (perhaps not even then). Similarly tardy will be the National Bureau of Economic Research, but that’s by design, because it assigns “official” dates to the start and finish of each recession and wants to be sure about the final status of oft-revised economic data before it makes its public pronouncements. Such “back-casting” and even “nowcasting” (offered by the New York Fed) are little help to those who prefer foresight and time to adjust before trouble begins. . . . .

No better, more reliable forecaster of the US business cycle has existed in recent decades than the initial shape of the US Treasury yield curve, and since last October it’s been signaling another US recession that’s likely to begin in 2024. This is important, because recessions have been associated with bear markets in stocks and bull markets in bonds. Moreover, if a recession arrives early in 2024 it may affect the US elections in November.

https://www.aier.org/article/a-recession-the-yield-curve-predicted-again/

OBSERVATION - I recommend readers to the link to the article above. Far too much for me to summarize here. The predictive model of yield reversals has a really good track record. If the trend is judged correctly, the latter half of this year may get pretty dicy economically.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the presence of two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Sunday, strengthening the U.S. military presence amid soaring regional tensions.

The announcement, made in a summary of a call between Austin and his Israeli counterpart, represents a shift. The Pentagon had initially deployed the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group into the region with a plan to replace the Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Quibbling over the ABC sponsored debate, trump is inclined to reject, but may be using it as leverage to force harris back into a Fox sponsored one.

Biden / Harris Watch –

The abundance of 0bama handlers and PR gurus are working to conduct a repeat of the hope and changey theme where feelings predominate over hard core examination of policies.

Illegal Immigration –

Venesulanian gangs continue to expand their control of Aurora CO apartment complexes and jacking up crime in the area.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

After the USA called all its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately: severe Russian bombings of the city of Kiev with missiles and drones (as well as in other cities), the airport was bombed and people are hiding in the subway stations.

The Russian Armed Forces announced that they had launched a massive strike on critical energy infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. The attack was the most substantial in many months. 11 Tu-95MS took off from their airbases in Russia Kh-101 cruise missiles from the air space over Caspian Sea as well as Mig-31K. Additionally a submarine, 2 frigates and a small missile boat with Kaliber missiles went out of the base to the Black Sea. Tu-22M3 bombers launched heavy supersonic Kh22 missiles. A further mix of surface to surface missiles were fired.

The Russian missile attack again seems to be aimed at energy facilities in Ukraine. Ukrenergo issued an order to introduce emergency power outages.

A massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine has affected 15 regions, according to Prime Minister Shmyhal.

In Kyiv, infrastructure and private homes were damaged. In Lviv, energy facilities were targeted. Industrial and energy infrastructure in Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Rivne, and Zhytomyr regions were hit, with damage also reported to residential buildings. In Odesa, four people, including a 10-year-old child, were injured.

Currently, there are reports of 4 dead and 19 injured, with casualties in Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr regions.

“The enemy launched over 100 missiles and around 100 “Shahed” drones in one of the largest combined attacks, targeting critical civilian infrastructure. Unfortunately, there are casualties and significant damage to the energy sector,” Zelenskyi stated.

Ukraine was also busy launching drones to attack targets in Russia. Other than unconfirmed reports of Russia success at shooting them down, little has been heard.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Ground operations are pretty much static with Ukraine executing maneuvers likely to improve their positions for defensive operations.

Some analysts estimate that Russia would need to put together a force of at least 50,000 to effectively dislodge Ukrainian forces in Kursk. Included in this would be the requirement for adequate tanks and armor. Many don’t see this force being organized any time soon given the force requirements for the fight in the Donbas.

Ocheretyne -

Continued Russia pressure resulting in minor gains at a high cost of men and material.

Outlook —

****** Note I posted this yesterday!!! - ******
“Russian launching a campaign of ballistic / cruise missiles and drone is still in the cards, but no apparent timeline for such an attack. It has been a considerable amount of time since the last one.”

That’s what secrets and OPSEC is all about, but the clear observation that NON-activity alerts to is equally critical as to actual activity. This size of an attack was overdue but increasingly likely to damage the power grid with the onset of the change of seasons toward winter.
NOTE - The US embassy did alert Americans to leave the Kyiv area due to an impending Russian missile attack, so in some aspects this attack wasn’t a total surprise.

I don’t think the current blitz is over yet. Russian analysts should be conducting battle damage assessment and lining up a new target set for follow on strike(s) in the coming days.

The intensity of the strike was also evident from the few missile capable ships of the Black Sea Fleet puttering out to launch positions and firing for the first time in a VERY long period. Those vessels probably launched from the outermost periphery of their target envelope to avoid detection and attack from Ukraine drone boats.

Belarus -

Belarus continues to build its amount of troops and equipment on the border of Ukraine. Ukraine says Wagner troops have spotted there too

OBSERVATION - The presence of remnant Wagner elements is concerning as they would likely compose the back bone of command and control of the Belarus forces answerable to Russia and not Minsk. Intensive training by Wagner and Russian forces have taken the rag tag Belarus military a long way towards a more effective fighting force. In Russia’s eyes, though, they would only need to be good enough to bog the Ukraine forces into another meat grinder action, shifting Ukraine assets from the Kursk offensive.

An incursion of Belarus troops into Ukraine may give Poland the justification to cross into Belarus.

Poland –

Polish military sources - We are probably dealing with an object entering Polish territory. It was confirmed by radiolocation by at least three stations - said Major General Maciej Klisz, Operational Commander of the Polish Armed Forces. The incident occurred at 6:43. - The object probably entered Polish space, disappeared after about 25 kilometers (of flight - ed.) on Polish territory - he added

OBSERVATION - Probably a stray Shahed drone.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas reject ceasefire option.

- Conditions between Israel and Hezbollah returning to previous dynamic tension.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s most senior leader, has “dressed as a woman” while hiding among Gaza’s populace during his time outside of the terror group’s tunnel network in the Gaza Strip, the UK’s Daily Express reported on Sunday, citing Israeli intelligence sources.

The New York Times on Sunday, citing American and Israeli officials, reported that Sinwar may have left tunnels in which he had been hiding on a number of occasions over the last year.

Sinwar has reportedly been moving from place to place in the Gaza Strip to stay ahead of Israeli efforts to hunt him down.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-816344

***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel took pre-emptive action against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement in Lebanon and that all drones launched against a strategic target in central Israel were intercepted.
He said that the leaders of Hezbollah and Iran should know that the response was “another step towards changing the situation in the north and returning our residents safely to their homes” and that “this is not the end of the story.”

***
Hamas rejects (for the 20th time) Israel’s terms for a ceasefire!

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israel continues to strike identified Hamas gatherings and the scattered rocket launch sites.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah is being mocked mercilessly on Arab social media. And the chicken AI memes won’t stop.
NOTE - the chicken memes come from the only reports major damage from the rocket strikes was a chicken coop that was hit.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Hezbollah continues to be humiliated by arab nations. The total failure of their attack should force them to reengineer their plans in a signifiant manner. Nasarallah’s speech yesterday was a complete joke.

Iran still trying to bluster, but is also trying to find ways to back pedal away from their declared retaliatory strike. As I noted yesterday, the intensity of the Israeli strike - based on the incredible level of accurate and time sensitive intel - shows that Israel is likely to launch a similar preemptive strike on Iran. Barring any unforeseen elements, I don’t expect a major missile/drone attack in the near future because of the Hezbollah failure over the weekend.

Another element of delay is the order for two US carrier groups to remain on station in the event of Iranian froggyiness.

For the immediate future, I see Israel resuming the headhunting of Hezbollah leadership and the systematic destruction of their C2 and logistics capabilities in preparation for an eventual ground assault to push Hezbollah back across the Litani river.

Action in Gaza to continue the same - walking Hamas as they come out of their holes with efficient airstrikes and clean up raids on the ground.

Iran –

Iran’s foreign minister again has referenced his country’s planned retaliation over the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Abbas Araghchi said late Sunday he made the remark in a conversation with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani by telephone.
“Iran reaction to Israeli terrorist attack in Tehran is definitive, and will be measured & well calculated,” Araghchi wrote on the social platform X. “We do not fear escalation, yet do not seek it — unlike Israel.”

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-hamas-iran/2024/08/26/id/1177863/

OBSERVATON - A lot of backtracking and spin from Iranian mouthpieces after yesterday’s humiliation of Hezbollah at the hands of a vigilant and alert Israel.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

***
Censorship - the life blood of tyranny. Now coming home to bite.

In a letter to Jim Jordan , Mark Zuckerberg just admitted three things:

1. Biden-Harris Admin “pressured” Facebook to censor Americans.

2. Facebook censored Americans.

3. Facebook throttled the Hunter Biden laptop story.

OBSERVATION - Zucks is trying to dodge his active agreement with the desired censorship action. How do you ‘pressure’ someone who is actively on your side?
When the govt actively censors your views, we are clearly in a cold war phase of CW2.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) are both operating in the Gulf of Oman.

https://news.usni.org/2024/08/26/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-aug-26-2024

POLITICAL FRONT –

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic Representative from Hawaii, has formally endorsed former President Donald Trump for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. She has informally been supporting trump for some time now.

***
The parents of Trump shooter Thomas Crooks have hired a team of powerhouse attorneys as the FBI continues to investigate just how much they knew ahead of their son’s assassination attempt on the former president, DailyMail.com can exclusively reveal.

The idea that someone may have assisted Thomas Crooks was given new credence on Thursday by Florida US Rep. Mike Waltz. In an exclusive interview with DailyMail.com he questioned whether the 20-year-old acted alone.

If the entire story we’ve been told about the final months of Thomas Crooks’ life and his sudden death on a non-slanted rooftop in Butler, Pennsylvania was true, it’s unclear to me why his parents would feel the need to have some powerhouse attorneys on their team. Two possibilities come to mind, one of them potentially practical and the other more fitting of a YouTube documentary.
The practical explanation might be that the parents are worried about the families of the victims bringing wrongful death lawsuits against them and they are taking precautions. . . .

Yet in light of these new revelations about “lawyering up,” some of the details we were previously given are making less and less sense. Thomas Crooks was an adult at age 20 in a state where anyone could legally own and use a rifle at 18. He was a member of a local shooting range where he practiced frequently. So why, on the day of the shooting, would his father call the police and report not only his son, but one of his rifles missing? I asked myself this question initially but was persuaded to put the idea aside. Now I’m not so sure. That sounds like someone who knew that “something wicked this way comes” and was establishing an alibi for later.

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2024/08/26/trump-shooters-father-hires-high-powered-attorney-n3793683

OBSERVATION - Still far too many questions than there are answers. IMHO Occam’s Razor points to him having help.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Harris is still pushing for changes that she had previously agreed to. Effort to prod trump into declining the debate for political hype?

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024

A cyberattack at the Port of Seattle and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport over the weekend is another example of hackers increasingly targeting critical infrastructure.

Details are not yet available about the nature of the attack in Seattle this weekend, and whether there was any data breach.
The outage, which is still ongoing, did not impact flights or security checkpoints. But it did cause delays to baggage services and many screens inside the terminal showing flight information weren’t working.

https://endtimeheadlines.org/2024/08/cyberattack-at-port-of-seattle-is-the-latest-example-of-increasing-threats-to-critical-infrastructure/#google_vignette

Illegal Immigration –

A federal judge in Texas has issued an order temporarily halting a new immigration programme from the Biden White House that officials say could protect hundreds of thousands of undocumented spouses of US citizens from deportation.

The 14-day stay issued on Monday comes in response to a lawsuit from 16 Republican-led states that sued the Biden administration over the programme.
The “Keeping Families Together” programme, which took effect last week, would apply to those who have been in the country for at least 10 years and allow them to work in the US legally.

Polls show that the immigration is a primary concern for many voters ahead of November’s presidential election.

When the White House announced the new programme in June, officials said that more than 500,000 spouses would be eligible.
They said the policy will also benefit 50,000 people under 21 whose parent is married to an American citizen.

Judge J Campbell Barker’s order on Monday puts the plan on hold for two weeks as the court considers the case, but has the option to be extended.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxleplk81wo

OBSERVATION - Another back door means the regime is attempting to plant illegals into the country permanently .

North/South Korea –

North Korea has launched a new kamikaze drone today. Will it soon be used by Russia in Ukraine and by IRGC proxies in the Middle East?
Some observers are noting that it is very much like a reverse technology of the Israeli “Harop” drone, which was downed in Lebanon in the past.

Japan –

Japan has accused a Chinese spy plane of breaching its airspace, in what would be the first known instance of such a direct violation.

Japan scrambled fighter jets after a Y-9 surveillance plane “violated the territorial airspace” of Danjo Islands for about two minutes at 11:29 local time Monday (02:29 GMT).

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary called the breach “utterly unacceptable” and summoned a Chinese embassy official in Tokyo in protest.

The incident comes as tensions rise in the region, where China competes for influence against the US and its allies, including Japan.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr40dpz1rkwo

OBSERVATION - China’s aggression in the S China Sea region is not limited to Taiwan or the Philippines, but extends to Japan and other nations as well.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Not available for yesterdays missile strike, Ukraine reported that air defense shot down 102 of 127 missiles of different types and 99 of 109 Shahed drones.

Overnights numbers are almost equally high.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 of 5 Kh-101 missiles,
60 of 81 Shahed drones, 10 more lost - possible crashed, other still airborne.
Russia has also launched 3 Kinzhal missiles, 1 Iskander-M, 1 Iskander-K

Russian forces are claiming advances northeast of Kharkiv City, north of Chasiv Yar, southeast of Pokrovsk, and west of Donetsk City.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

During the operation in the Kursk region, Ukraine Defense Forces captured 594 Russian soldiers as POWs, as for now Ukraine controls 1294 square kms territories in the Kursk region, 100 settlements. Progress continues, - commander-in-chief Syrsky.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations within their salient in Kursk Oblast on August 26, but neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made any significant confirmed or claimed advances.

Vyazovoye village of Krasnaya Yaruga district of Belgorod region declared closed zone.
Governor of Belgorod region commenting on clashes at the border, particularly at Nekhoteevka border crossing says situation is difficult, but controlled by Russian military, planned works by Russian troops

Outlook —

Second night of Russia’s missile/drone campaign against Ukraine shows a marked decline in numbers but still very significant. Observers are noting that Russia doesn’t have the production capability to sustain this level of attack for many more days - hence the big gap since the last major missile assault needed to stockpile for this round. Ukraine may well see another couple days/nights of these attacks, but it appears that they are waning.

On the flip side, Ukraine is rapidly developing more lethal deep strike weapons systems. Deeper Russian targets may no longer be safe.

Ground combat remains pretty much status quo. Monitoring reports of fighting on the Russian border of Belgorod - likely reconnaissance efforts probing for more weakness - or actions to keep Russian’s on their toes and divert forces away from Kursk.

Belarus -

At least 6 kamikaze drones of the Shahed type flew into the territory of Belarus from Ukraine last night. According to “eRadarrua” Telegram channel, Shahed drones flew into the airspace of Belarus from Chernihiv and Kyiv regions of Ukraine.

Belarus forces still mustarding on the border with Ukraine. Again, presence of Wagner elements suggest these are better trained than most of the rest of the Belarus Army.

Poland –

Unconfirmed report of a Shahed drone penetration Polish airspace.

ISRAEL –

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

The Israeli army confirms carrying out a drone strike in Nur Shams a short while ago. According to the Israeli army, the target of the strike was a command room belonging to local terror operatives.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Direct elimination of a Hamas terrorist in Lebanon - a vehicle was attacked in Sidon. The target was a Senior Hamas figure, Omar Khalilhal.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Activity has maintained a more ‘regular’ pre-Hezbollah preemptive attack level. Hezbollah is back to having their command and logistics systematically taken away while their retaliatory attacks are relatively ineffective.

Gaza getting hit by artillery and air strikes on identified hamas concentrations/regrouping.

Iran contemplating the risks of launching its promised strike on Israel. What they have to consider is -
- the ineffectiveness of the April attack
- the effectiveness of the Israeli retaliatory strike (and the message it sent)
- The decisive slapping down of Hezbollah’s retaliatory attack - preemptive
- Israeli strike on Houthi port and oil facilities (and equally soft targets in Iran)
- The presence of two US carrier groups and lots of other fighter deployed the region.

Not many rays of sunshine for the mullahs.

Labor day weekend and I’ll be in the mountains and mostly off line.
Gotta get it in because the first snows hit the mountains overnight, winter’s coming. I’ll post tomorrow and then be gone until next Monday.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

***
Lawyer Stephan Stamboulieh on X (formerly Twitter) released more documents from the FBI’s symbol guide. This list seems to be an updated list of those previously released to the public. At the same time AmmoLand News received the same print outs.

The new terms added in this edition are “molon labe,” “prepping,” and “Second Amendment(2A).” The FBI says these terms can be signs of violent militia extremism. The document also says militia violent extremists (MVEs) might regard “red flag” laws, aka extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs,) as unconstitutional, but it isn’t just MVEs that think that.
Many legal experts and civil libertarians openly oppose ERPOs for the lack of due process. Several lawsuits have been filed challenging such laws, and members of Congress have spoken out against “red flag” laws.

According to the FBI, anyone who practices preparedness and is a “prepper” might be an MVE—using terms such as bug out might put you on the FBI’s radar. Many people have bug out plans for the unexpected, such as a natural disaster. Also, using Sh*t Hits the Fan (SHFT) might lead to scrutiny from the FBI. The term has been around for decades, but now the FBI considers it a possible sign of an MVE.

The FBI is scared that the term “Come and Take It” might be a sign of a willingness to resist gun control violently, even though it has been used throughout the centuries from the ancient Greeks to the Alamo. Many gun rights organizations have also used the phrase to show their willingness to fight back against unconstitutional gun control through the court system.
The updated list shows that the FBI is still targeting right-leaning individuals as targets for surveillance.

https://www.ammoland.com/2024/08/fbi-document-leak-gun-owners-are-violent-extremists/

OBSERVATION - I’m probably already on the list for many things already, so I’ll just say it - our govt / deep state is at war with us and is building the target list and justification for actions (via redefined terms) for future action.

***
In response to Zuckerberg’s letter, the Biden-Harris administration provided a statement to Fox News – that does not deny Zuckerberg’s charges.
However, the White House statement does say that social media platforms should base their censorship decisions on “the effects their actions have on the American people”:

“When confronted with a deadly pandemic, this administration encouraged responsible actions to protect public health and safety. Our position has been clear and consistent: we believe tech companies and other private actors should take into account the effects their actions have on the American people, while making independent choices about the information they present.”

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/wh-responds-doesnt-deny-zuckerberg-claim-facebook-was-pressured-censor

OBSERVATION - Censorship and control of free speech is the pivotal component of a tyranny. The biden regime doesn’t deny they pushed censorship.

***
Director at Big Data Poll Richard Baris explained in a post on X why Garland’s comments are so alarming.

“This is what 50% of the country heard from Garland. ‘We’re gonna steal this election and if you try to fight us, we’ll put you in prison.’ God this country is totally corrupt,” he wrote.

“DOJ prosecutors and DC judges are warning that the hammer will come down on any American who protests the 2024 election results,” echoed independent journalist Julie Kelly on X after Garland made his press conference statement. “They treat J6ers like mass murderers,” she continued, citing comments from Obama-appointed District Judge Tanya Chutkan “lecturing a J6 protestor convicted of a misdemeanor.”

The DOJ brought the “hammer” down in the wake of the 2020 election, as Garland made clear. The DOJ charged hundreds of protesters — including a “praying grandma” in her 70s — under a federal statute that the Supreme Court later ruled was used in an over-broad capacity.

https://thefederalist.com/2024/08/27/garland-makes-an-example-of-j6-protesters-to-shut-up-anyone-else-who-might-question-elections/

OBSERVATION - No mention of hillary or algore - but that is to be expected. What we see being set up here is a carbon copy of what maduro is doing in Venezuela following the recent elections there. Vigorous jailing and prosecution of those protesting his (stolen) election. The overkill prosecutions of J6 are one matter that needs to be addressed. However, threatening citizens and their rights to protest cross the red line into a whole other realm.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Pollsters are looking close to what appears to be an absence of any significant bounce for harris following the DNC. Apart from the ones clearly biased democrat, more moderate polling indicates that the loudly touted surge in harris numbers was like a wave on the beach and is quickly pulling back.
Don’t put your trust in polls, hillary was up by 17 at this stage. And Harris’s flip flopping like the fish left on that beach as the wave receded suggests that they know things are now all “joy”

***
Federal prosecutors have filed a new indictment of former President Trump in the special counsel’s case against him alleging a conspiracy to obstruct the 2020 election after the Supreme Court issued a ruling granting presidents immunity.

RUMINT. Special Counsel Jack smith is planning to indict in September over 200 GOP members of congress who assisted Trump in conspiring “to overturn the presidential election and overthrow the government.”

OBSERVATION - Smith is a good little drone, and his reworded indictments likely will have less substance than before.
HOWEVER, what I find more disturbing is the rumor that smith is contemplating indicting 200 members of congress for the same. That will raise the political heat by an order of magnitude and likely force the issue of his removal as being an illegal appointment - something still working thru the courts. If there ever was a broader reason for a CW . . . . .

Biden / Harris Watch –

On Thursday — 39 days since being installed as the Democrat nominee — Kamala will sit for her first formal interview.
- Joint, since she’s not competent enough to do it on her own.

- Taped, so her handlers have time to play damage control.

***
Harris has been flip flopping on numerous issues. Some of the latest is reversal on the EV mandate and now is even advocating building the wall that she opposed on the border.

RELATED - Tim Walz: I’ll invest in a “ladder factory” to help illegal aliens jump the border wall
In other news, Kamala Harris has reportedly flip-flopped on the border wall and now supports its construction.

***
Looks like harris capitulated on the debate rules for ABC and will go forward with the originally agreed to rules.

“The Rules will be the same as the last CNN Debate, which seemed to work out well for everyone except, perhaps, Crooked Joe Biden. The Debate will be ‘stand up,’ and Candidates cannot bring notes, or ‘cheat sheets,’” Trump explained.

“We have also been given assurance by ABC that this will be a ‘fair and equitable’ Debate, and that neither side will be given the questions in advance (No Donna Brazile!),” Trump added.

Illegal Immigration –

CROSS REFERENCE TO CW2 AS WELL - Hundreds of Venezuelan migrants are illegally working as food delivery drivers across America, DailyMail.com can reveal, showing up to your door under names and identities that don’t belong to them.

The troubling development is a consequence of the one million Venezuelan citizens who have flooded into the US, largely illegally, during President Joe Biden‘s time in office, with many entering through the US-Mexico border.

It raises huge concerns about the safety of the home delivery apps and the consumer’s ability to trust who is actually delivering food to their home and family – with customers’ personal information potentially placed in the hands of dangerous street gangs.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/08/doordash-and-uber-eats-infiltrated-by-venezuelan-migrants-who-are-illegally-showing-up-at-your-door/

OBSERVATION - The potential for follow-on crime and other abuse is astronomical.

China –

While the world has been focused on the geopolitical tensions between China and the West, a more subtle battle has been unfolding in the global financial markets. China, through a series of calculated moves, has been quietly accumulating vast quantities of gold and silver. This move has signaled a potential shift in the global economic landscape and highlights the developing countries’ need for exorbitant amounts of resources.

https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/precious-metals/article-815780#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - China’s not only working to hoard gold and silver, they are locking down the availability of rare earth metals and materials as well as purchasing copious amounts of food for stockpile.

Phillipines –

(FO) Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo said that escorting Philippine vessels to their resupply points in the South China Sea is “an entirely reasonable option within our Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT).” This was in response to a question about the repeated Chinese aggression surrounding the Spratly Islands.

General Romeo Brawner, chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, said that the Philippines would run resupply missions on its own until they are constrained from doing so. He followed-on that the Philippines may turn to “other like minded nations” instead of the U.S.

OBSERVATION - Chinese aggression will only continue until some one stands up to the bully and pushes back. When that happens things could get spicy.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.

RUMINT –
Unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian Military has entered the territory of the Belgorod Oblast, Russia & is gaining a foothold. Fighting has been confirmed in the areas but extent of penetration is unknown.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russian forces are slowly moving towards Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in Ukraine’s Donbas region, concerns about its potential loss are mounting.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Ukrainian forces continue to push outward.

Crimean front —

Russian army is moving S-300/S-400 from Sevastopol towards eastern Crimea. Evidently attempting to reinforce air defenses over Kerch Strait bridge.

Russian Territory –
Oil depot of Russian state reserve enterprise “Atlas” caught fire after drone attack near Kamensk-Shakhtinsky of Rostov region

Outlook —

Russian move towards Pokrovsk is of increasing concern. Its capture would provide Russia with significant options to spread the fight into other areas of the Donbas. Ukraine needs to get serious about shutting this threat down.

The Belarus border buildup has caused growing concern to me. I’ve seen nothing from Ukraine on counter efforts. I would hope that they’ve deployed an abundance of mines and other obstacles on assault routes into Ukraine from these staging areas. As noted under Belarus - these brigades may represent the best trained units under Wagner scrutiny. But should Belarus join the fight, there are strong possibilities that Poland may execute its own incursion into Belarus. However, at this time no Polish buildup has been noted towards the Belarus border beyond that supporting the protection of the border from migrant penetrations.

Belarus -

Belarusian units added the tactical sign “B” on their tanks while “exercising” on the border to Ukraine. Two mechanized brigades of equipment have been deployed to the border with Ukraine. They have been allocated the tactical sign ‘В’. The equipment has no ‘cope cages’ - fencing and the like designed to stop FPV drones from getting to the tank/armored vehicle.

OBSERVATION - As more details come in, the needle is moving towards a potential foray by Belarus into Ukraine. The addition of the “B” is an invasion marking to avoid friendly fire incidents, seen a lot from Russia using “V” or “Z” on their vehicles and equipment. The presence of former Wagner is of foremost concern and as advisors would provide significant tactical capabilities to the forces. Secondly, there is evidence as I’ve said before that they have been conducting more intense training of the Belarus army and that they are a more capable element than 2 years ago. A relatively small element of 2 brigades could easily represent an ‘elite’ group with more intensive training by Wagner.

Europe / NATO General –

Reports are emerging that the United Arab Emirates government has FROZEN billions of dollars worth of contracts with France for the purchase of 80 fighter jets due to the recent arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel launches major operation in Jenin and the West Bank.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

In a special operation by our forces, the abducted Qadi Farhan was rescued from the Gaza Strip. Qadi was found during an Israeli operation to capture a network of Hamas tunnels under southern Gaza

In a night operation lasting a few hours in south Khan Yunis, the body of the soldier Shaked Cohen, who was killed on 7th October and was abducted to Gaza, was recovered. Now 107 abductees remain in captivity, of which 35 are presumed dead

A former mayor of Rahat said rescued hostage Farhan al-Qadi told him that a fellow captive died alongside him in Gaza, as details began to trickle out about his more than 10 months in Hamas captivity after he was rescued Tuesday by Israeli special forces.The information could not immediately be verified and there was no comment from the Israel Defense Forces or from the Hostage Families Forum.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israel army says it has destroyed a 3 km long tunnel in central Gaza

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israel continued to strike throughout S Lebanon and the Beqaa valley. An Israeli strike overnight in Lebanon’s Beqaa valley targeted multiple trucks carrying ammunition in the Baalbek region

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Monday that 90% of the Hezbollah rockets that were intercepted Sunday were fired from civilian areas in southern Lebanon, a further violation of international law by the Iran-backed terror group.

Hezbollah and Hamas, a Palestinian terror group, both follow the practice of hiding weapons among civilians so that if Israel attacks the weapons sites, there will be civilian casualties for which Israel will be blamed — even though intentionally exposing civilians to enemy fire is a violation of international humanitarian law by the terrorists.

https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2024/08/26/idf-90-of-hezbollah-rockets-fired-from-civilian-areas-lebanon/

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

3 Palestinians and a Lebanese killed in Israeli raid on their car in the Damascus countryside. Likely affiliated with Hamas ore Hezbollah.

A number of missiles were launched from Syrian territory towards the Golan. Israeli artillery targeted several military points in the Quneitra province in Syria

———WEST BANK——————————-

The IDF has begun a MAJOR operation to arrest wanted persons and destroy terrorist infrastructure in Judea & Samaria.

The operation will be targeting 3 main camps: Jenin, Nur al-Shams (Tulkarm), and Parah. IDF forces have already encircled hospitals to prevent terrorists from reaching them, and screening the patients who enter.

The broad operation, includes significant air cover, hundreds of fighters, including undercover, and the possibility of an orderly population evacuation of Palestinians depending on the intensity of the combat.

Exchanges of fire overnight were ongoing in the camps, and there are casualties among the terrorists, mainly in Jenin, where at least two were killed.

This IDF Special Operation into the West Bank tonight is a significant one. Reports of several units on the ground, some with armour, air assets also up. Reports of airstrikes and several terrorist killed. Likely this will last for much longer than just tonight.

The IDF has surrounded a hospital in the terrorist town of Jenin, which is full of terrorists, and is expected to storm into it.

Israeli FM: The Israeli army is working intensively from tonight in the Jenin and Tulkarm refugee camps to thwart Islamic-Iranian terrorist infrastructures that have been established there. Iran is working to establish an eastern terrorist front against Israel in the West Bank, according to the Gaza and Lebanon model, by financing and arming militants and smuggling advanced weapons from Jordan. We must deal with the threat just as we deal with the terrorist infrastructure in Gaza, including the temporary evacuation of Palestinian residents and whatever steps are required. This is a war for everything and we must win it.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Jordanian Foreign Minister: Security Council and international community must take immediate measures to stop Israeli violations in Jerusalem

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israeli security forces have been aggressively working in the West Bank and in particular of late, Jenin since the start of the Gaza war. Iran has been trying to build a Hamas- like terror network to act as another front in its war against Israel. For clarity, the fronts Iran has designed consist of Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, Iraq, Houthi and now the west bank. Jordan has not been too effective in stopping arms and munitions smuggled into the West bank from Syria or Iraq.

US still emphasizing that iran is set to launch an attack. This has been their assessment for weeks now and as far as a US preparation posture I would endorse. Iran continues to make similar threats, but with a caveat that any delay is to inflict psychological stress on Israel.

I expect the game of chicken to continue for a little while longer. Iran, however, can’t afford to wait too long as support is eroding and they are losing face. They also can’t wait too much longer as Israel continues to chisel away at Hezbollahs readiness and capabilities. Hezbollah is also losing patience with Iran and may try to take further actions on its own.

Iran –

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Tuesday opened the door to renewed negotiations with the United States over his country’s nuclear program, telling its civilian government there was “no harm” in engaging with its “enemy”, The Associated Press reported.

Khamenei’s remarks set clear red lines for any talks taking place under the government of new President Masoud Pezeshkian and he renewed his warnings that Washington cannot be trusted.

However, his comments mirror those around the time of the signing of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, noted AP.

“This does not mean that we cannot interact with the same enemy in certain situations,” Khamenei said, according to a transcript on his official website. “There is no harm in that, but do not place your hopes in them.”

Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters, also warned Pezeshkian’s Cabinet, “Do not trust the enemy.”

Asked for comment, the US State Department told AP, “We will judge Iran’s leadership by their actions, not their words.”

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/395276

OBSERVATION - Delay / distraction tactic by Tehran to get focus and support off/away from Israel.

***
Iranian Deputy Defense Minister says their revenge for Haniyeh’s assassination will be “sudden and proportionate”, and Israel “must live in a state of psychological anxiety”

***
NSC spokesperson John Kirby says Iran is “postured and poised” to attack Israel, says US has warned Iran not to attack, will help defend Israel if Iran does

Misc of Note –

I don’t know about you, but just when you think things can’t get any crazier someone calls out ‘hold ma beer’ and the chaos ramps up another notch.

All of this has caused many to consider that there is a storm approaching in the near future of a magnitude not seen since the civil war. We see the deep state moving resolutely to imposing a communistic rule over the country, global economic and wars , and an over all breakdown of society.

I don’t want to drift into the ‘cry wolf’ syndrome but I’ve never saw anything like this in my 60+ years of orbiting the sun. And it’s only getting worse.

Furnace kicked on this morning - a sure sign that the seasons be a-changing here in the Redoubt. My primary and secondary heaters on the RV are up and functional - no roughing it this weekend.

So until Monday at the earliest -

Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future

UN Secretary General António Gutteres is doubling down on his shrill climate demands, as he approaches the final stretch of his zero achievement term of office.

“Wealthy countries like Australia must immediately phase out fossil fuels and block new coal projects and oil and gas expansion to drastically reduce greenhouse emissions, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in Tonga on Tuesday.

The UN issued a global SOS – what Guterres described as a “save our seas”, releasing new data from NASA and the World Meteorological Organisation that showed sea-level rises had doubled since the 1990s.”
…
“Without drastic cuts to emissions, the Pacific islands can expect at least 15 centimetres of additional sea-level rise by mid-century, and more than 30 days per year of coastal flooding in some places,” Guterres told reporters at the forum.
…
Read more: https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/pacific-in-peril-un-urges-australia-to-block-new-coal-and-gas-projects-20240823-p5k4ue.html

OBSERVATION - Same old song and dance. At most we are talking a few millimeters of rise and in the Pacific Island regions, some sea level DROPS have been documented.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

(FO) According to Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, 56% of agricultural economists said the U.S. agriculture sector is on the brink of a recession, and 53% of ag economists said U.S. agriculture was already in a recession. One economist said beef cattle supply fundamentals have not changed, but demand could drop due to an economy-wide recession.

OBSERVATION - Ranchers are still struggling to regrow their herds that they had to cull during the severe drought a couple years ago that decimated feed supplies. A recession and lowered demand will further impede the growth of the herds.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

The Trump campaign announced that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) will be honorary co-chairs of Trump’s transition team.

OBSERVATION - Whatever “transition” means. But not a surprising development for anyone who watched the convention and saw how broad a tent the republicans were working to cast.

Biden / Harris Watch –

The Supreme Court on Wednesday temporarily sided with states that sued to pause the Biden-Harris administration’s latest effort to implement student loan forgiveness.

***
Biden now on his second week of vacation - who’s running the show?

Illegal Immigration –

Posted videos show the Aurora, Colo. apartment building is turning into a slum after Venezuelan migrants moved in. Security cameras caught members of the gang “Tren de Aragua (TdA) “ walking around brandishing guns, and there was a reported shooting at the complex.

TdA started out as a prison gang in Venezuela and has expanded throughout the Western Hemisphere. In July, the Biden administration designated the gang as a transnational criminal organization, accusing it of engaging in human smuggling and trafficking, gender-based violence, money laundering and illicit drug trafficking.

Local law enforcement has denied the claims that the gang has taken control of any apartment complexes. However, the release of security camera footage

video - https://www.foxnews.com/us/video-shows-armed-gang-troubled-colorado-apartment-building-believed-have-been-taken-over-migrants

OBSERVATION - Some consider this gang to be more violent and dangerous than MS-13. Their literal and open seizure of now at least two apartment complexes IIRC in Aurora is outrageous. Tren de Aragua (TdA) has been documented operating in the NE US, primarily in NYC where there has been a tentative balance with MS-13 over operating arrangements.

Further shows the risk to America from the tsunami of illegals across the spectrum. There are enough here that should an organized ‘uprising’ occur, standard law enforcement would be very hard pressed to control, even with National Guard support.

***
(FO) A 5th Circuit Court of Appeals panel ruled 3-0 yesterday that illegal immigrants in the U.S. are prohibited from owning firearms. In March, Illinois U.S. District Judge Sharon Johnson Coleman ruled that illegal immigrants were not prohibited from owning firearms on 2nd Amendment grounds.

OBSERVATION - Common sense, but is enroute to the USSC anyway.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Third day of heavy Russian missile/drone attacks. The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a combined missile and drone attack overnight.

Shot down:
2/3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
60/74 Shahed drones

Another 14 drones were lost and fell somewhere in Ukrainian territory, possibly due to electronic warfare measures. At least one of these drones is suspected to have strayed into Belarus airspace and was shot down.
In addition Russia attacked with two cruise missiles of an unknown type of which information is now being clarified.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Growing evidence that the Ukraine army is shifting to a more defensive posture and fighting is to establish defensive advantages.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian forces making substantial gains on the southwestern portion of the salient. They have pushed across the M-30 highway. Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Stelmakhivka in Luhansk region of Ukraine and Mykolaivka in Donetsk region of Ukraine

Russian Territory –

Fire has spread to four fuel tanks at the Russian “Atlas” oil depot, which was attacked by drones, and efforts to contain it have been unsuccessful. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff confirmed strikes on the “Zenit” oil depot in the Kirov region, over 1,400 km from the Ukrainian border, as well as successful hits on an ammunition depot in the Voronezh region and the “Atlas” oil depot in the Rostov region.

Reports that the Ukrainians attacked a hydroelectric power station in Ryazan province.

Outlook —

Third round of Russian missile / drone attacks - mostly by a lot of Shahed drones. Russian ballistic and cruise missile use is way, way down. This trend is likely to continue for a few more days. Monday’s attacks were the largest since the start of the war.

Ukraine has maintained its efforts to degrade Russia’s petroleum sector, continuing to hit refineries and distribution centers. The growing success indicates likely advancements in Ukraine drone capabilities as well as degradation of Russian ADA, creating holes in the defense.

The Russian push on the Pokrovsk axis is becoming increasing fierce and successful. It is throwing just about everything it can to reach Pokrovsk before the mud season hits. All other available reserves have been shifted to Kursk.

Reevaluated the situation with Belarus’ military build up. More verified numbers indicate the brigades deployed there are understrength. Their positioning (Homiel region) is not optimal except to push into the northeast corner of Ukraine and possibly attempt to threaten Sumy. To try to reach Kyiv they’s have to pass thru the Chernoval nuclear zone. Thus I’m backing off my concerns over a potential injection of Belarus into Ukraine at this point. See also Belarus below.

Belarus -

As of August 29, the number of the group of the Belarusian Armed Forces redeployed to Homiel region increased to ~1150 people. This is the minimum and confirmed number of troops. The number of forces redeployed to the border doesn’t pose a military threat to Ukraine.

Lukashenka: There were no orders to go fight outside Belarus, and there will be none. “We will only fight when they come to us with bad intentions,” he stressed

Belarusian Air Forces have used a fighter jet to shot down Russian Shahed drones that entered its airspace by accident.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel took out the most wanted terrorist in Judea and Samaria - Abu Shuja’a.

- Operations continue in the West Bank

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Several pin-point operations / raids in various areas of Gaza with artillery and airstrikes.

Unconfirmed rumors that clans and independent militias in Gaza are increasingly hostile to remaining Hamas leadership and forces. They are blaming them more and more with bringing down the wrath of Israel by locating and firing from civilian and other ‘protected’ sites.

Hamas leader Sinwar, besides dressing as a woman, reportedly has about 20 hostages around him at all times.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

RUMINT. The MTV Lebanon channel reports from sources that the Iranian attack on Israel is expected to take place in 2-3 days. The reaction is expected to be limited and will not lead to an all-out war.

NOTE - Later reports just say “media” citing arab sources that US has warned them about the impending attack timeframe. I don’t consider the sources as credible and appear to be echoing what US has openly been saying lately.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Explosions are reported from Barzah area of Damascus. It being reported that Barzah area has been attacked by missiles.
The Syrian Scientific Research and Studies Center (SSRC) facility is located in Barzah, and has been attacked by Israel in the past.

———WEST BANK——————————-

In an operation in Tulkarm, the IDF special forces killed several terrorists amongst which was the most wanted terrorist in Judea and Samaria - Abu Shuja’a.

“Abu Shujaa”, was the head of a terrorist network in Nur Shams. He was involved in carrying out numerous terror attacks, including a shooting attack in which an Israeli civilian, Amnon Muchtar, was murdered in June. Jabber was also involved in the planning of additional terror attacks.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi have attempted to fire missiles at Israel, launches failed.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The U.N. Security Council on Wednesday demanded a halt to the increasing attacks between Lebanon’s Hezbollah terrorists and Israeli forces and warned that further escalation “carries the high risk of leading to a widespread conflict.”

——— FORECAST ————————-

Threat of immediate escalation in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah have subsided for now. The strength of the Israeli preemptive strike sent the message. Now things are shifting back to previous ‘levels’ where Israel continues to successfully target leadership with drone strikes, while IAF picks apart key Hezbollah C2, logistics and missile/rocket attack facilities.

In Gaza, Hamas continues to be attrited to the extent that its control over the civilians is being challenged internally. Actions taken by Sinwar to protect himself are not that uncommon as terrorists have disguised themselves in the past as women. This tactic and other reports, though unconfirmed, generally point to the fact that he is running out of room and time. If Israeli PR and outreach can sway the local clans into an understanding that the quickest way to end the bombing is getting rid of Hamas and Sinwar in particular - and show good will toward that end, the noose could close quickly. For now there are still an abundance of tunnels he can hid in but food/water is increasingly scarce.

When and even if Iran will launch a revenge strike are still unknown. I’ve listed my thoughts a lot in previous posts. Israel will not be so generous this time around with their counterstrike, so Iran may well be calculating how big an attack is necessary to appease their ‘revenge’ without poking the bear hard enough to provoke Israel to not do too much damage.

My luck it’ll happen while I’m in the woods, so stay alert. If Iran does pull the trigger, I think they ‘ll avoid doing other rash stuff like attempting to close the Straits of Hormuz or launching a cyber attack against the US and other western nations. Those actions would be more aligned with a go for broke Iranian attack and all out war with Israel (and the west)

Iran –

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri restated on August 28 the Iranian intent to attack Israel in retaliation for killing Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

***
Unconfirmed reports that the cabinet of the newly elected Iranian president is hitting rough times with the ruling mullahs and the IRGC. This may be causing some of the apparent delay in any retaliatory strike against Israel since the mullah’s think allah is on their side and any who die due to an Israeli counter strike is just fine. The new president is not as religiously fanatical and a little more pragmatic, recognizing that it falls upon him and his cabinet to hold the country together is such an escalation in war occurs.

Mexico -

(FO) Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) said his relationships with U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar and Canada’s Ambassador are “on pause” after they criticized AMLO’s support for judicial reforms. Salazar warned the judicial reforms would make it easier for cartels to infiltrate Mexican courts.

Venezuela -

Supporters of Venezuela’s political opposition and backers of the ruling party each held rallies on Wednesday to mark the one-month anniversary of July’s disputed presidential election, as arrests of opposition figures continued.

OBSERVATION - As I’ve noted before, the opposition has missed its opportunity and the initiative is back in maduro’s corner.

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