Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4203481/posts
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA.
“Why Internet Trolls Do What They Do and How to Spot Russian Fakes”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLtBzvw0—0
“Here is the best-kept secret about U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Most of the money is being spent here in the United States. That’s right: Funds that lawmakers approve to arm Ukraine are not going directly to Ukraine but being used stateside to build new weapons or to replace weapons sent to replace weapons sent to Kyiv from U.S. stockpiles. Of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has approved since Russia invaded Ukraine, almost 90 percent is going to Americans, one analysis found.”
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1730119780873441750
EU vows Ukraine to get aid despite veto by Hungary’s Orban
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-blocks-aid-ukraine-says-he-can-still-halt-eu-accession-2023-12-15/
BRUSSELS, Dec 15 (Reuters) - European Union leaders expressed confidence on Friday that they would clear a large package of aid for Ukraine early in 2024, despite a veto by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban...
...German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron were among those expressing optimism on getting the aid to Kyiv, which is part of a broader multi-year EU budget plan.
“We have other ways of helping Ukraine, but we have not given up on the goal of finding a solution here,” said Scholz, who diplomats and officials said played a big role in getting Orban to leave the room to clear the way for a decision on starting accession talks.
Macron said the EU was “not blocked” from providing aid next year, adding he felt Orban had an incentive to reach a deal.
Multiple explosions in occupied Donetsk right now.
Newest NATO member Finland signs defence pact with US
https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/newest-nato-member-finland-signs-defence-pact-with-us/ar-AA1lxumV
“NATO’s newest member, Finland, has announced it will sign a bilateral defence cooperation agreement next week with the United States.
The deal will allow Washington to station troops and store weapons inside the Nordic country, which shares a sprawling border with Russia.
Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen told a news conference in Helsinki on Thursday that Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen will sign the so-called Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) on Monday.
The pact, which still needs to be approved by Finnish lawmakers, “is very significant for Finland’s defence and security,” Häkkänen said...
...The nation of 5.6 million shares a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia that makes up a significant part of NATO’s northeastern flank. It is also the European Union’s external border in the north.
Under the deal, Finland will allow US soldiers access to 15 military areas and facilities covering the entire Nordic nation.
They range from a key southern naval base and inland air bases to a vast remote army training area in Lapland, in the Arctic north.
American troops are allowed a permanent presence and regular exercises in Finland but there are no plans to establish permanent US military bases in Finland, officials said...
...Last week, Finland’s close Nordic neighbour Sweden, which is on the brink of joining NATO, signed a comparable deal.
Alliance member Denmark is expected to do so in the near future.” (Note that the Kingdom of Denmark includes Greenland, and all its Arctic waters).
Nazi gay fascist dnc’s - liberal war - crusades
Spreading diversity - mobocracy - marxism around the world
Keeps costing trillions
100m deaths last century too
There isn’t an ill wind
That doesn’t blow Some good
Hitler - mussolini bombing
The international in Spain
Is a good example of it
The Russians in the ukraine
Israel too in the gaza
Darth Putin 4h
We have destroyed 770 Ukrainian tanks, 760 of which they captured from us.
I remain a master strategist.
Darth Putin 4h
Navalny disappearing shows Russia’s elections are free. Free of opposition candidates.
Darth Putin 4h
Day 659 of my 3 day war. I am losing more soldiers every 5 days than USA lost in Afghanistan in 20 years.
I remain a master strategist
Bild (Germany) published supposed leaked Russian plans for the Ukraine War - a slow attritional grind for the next three years, to gradually take more territory, until the West gives up the fight (Hoping for a new US President to cut off support to the Ukraine). Basically, no limit to Russia’s advance - just as far as they can go, in Ukraine and beyond.
If a new US President (Trump) is sworn in on 20 January 2025, the FY 2025 funding for Ukraine might already be in place, running through Sep 2025.
ISW reports (15 Dec):
“German outlet BILD stated on December 14 that unspecified intelligence findings and sources indicate that Russia plans to occupy Ukrainian territory beyond the four (illegally) annexed Ukrainian oblasts throughout 2024-2026. BILD stated that Russia plans to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and up to the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast by the end of 2024.
These reported goals are in line with ongoing localized Russian offensive operations in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv oblasts. Russia also reportedly plans to take large parts of Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblasts, including Kharkiv City if possible, in 2025 and 2026.
BILD reported that an insider source stated that Russia plans to occupy large parts of eastern Ukraine located east of the Dnipro River within the next 36 months. Russia is reportedly planning to hold the current front line in Kherson Oblast along the Dnipro River and is only concerned about preventing Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine from advancing towards occupied Crimea.
BILD stated that Russia’s plans are based on mobilizing Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB), suffering annual casualties of around 100,000 military personnel in attritional offensive operations, and benefiting from the possible election of a US president in 2024 who dramatically reduces or stops military support to Ukraine.
BILD reported that a source familiar with the intelligence findings stated that the Kremlin plans to rely on “sham negotiations” while continuing to conduct offensive operations similar to the way in which Russia negotiated the Second Minsk agreement in 2015 while the Russian military continued to occupy additional Ukrainian settlements.
BILD previously published largely accurate intelligence findings about Russia’s plans for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in December 2021 which assessed that Russia would attack Ukraine from the south from Crimea, from Russian-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine, and from the north in late January or early February 2022, although the Russian invasion as executed did not perfectly align with BILD’s reporting.
ISW cannot independently authenticate BILD’s reporting, but Russia’s reported plans for the war in Ukraine through 2026 are in line with continued Russian preparations for a prolonged war effort. The Russian military command is pursuing long-term restructuring and expansion efforts to form strategic reserves, and Russia has been gradually mobilizing its DIB to sustain a long war.
Russia’s reported medium to long-term plans to occupy territory beyond the four (illegally) annexed territories are also plausible considering that Russian officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have reverted to expansionist rhetoric recently, and Russian forces continue offensive operations to expand their positions in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian officials have issued statements about Russia’s intention to occupy and annex additional Ukrainian territory beyond the current front lines and the four (illegally) annexed territories.“
ISW recently assessed that the sudden collapse of Western aid would likely lead sooner or later to the collapse of Ukraine’s ability to hold off the Russian military, and Russian forces could ultimately push all the way to the western Ukrainian border in such a scenario.”