Emboldened by battlefield gains and flagging Western support for Ukraine, a relaxed and confident President Vladimir Putin said Thursday there would be no peace until Russia achieves its goals, which he says remain unchanged after nearly two years of fighting. (Dec. 14)
“Remember how sad I (Vlad0) was going to be when the aid for Ukraine was approved?”
The EU seems likely to vote on 50 Billion more Euros for Ukraine tomorrow (maybe Saturday, if they go into overtime).
Today they approved starting formal negotiations to admit Ukraine to the EU (also Moldova and Georgia), and passed the 12th sanctions package on Russia. Victor Orban left the room as pre-arranged, so that the Ukraine measure could pass (he received ten billion euros for Hungary, that were unfrozen in the last week).
The 2024 EU budget that contains the 50 Billion euros for Ukraine, also contains big sweetners for Orban, that he has long sought (e.g. 15 Billion for immigration control, and lots for Hungary directly).
The US Senate delayed its planned Christmas recess, and will remain in session next week, working on the compromise over aid to Ukraine ($61 Billion) and Border/Amnesty controls.
When those packages are approved over the coming days and weeks, Ukraine will have more money for the war in 2024, than Russia. More than enough to fund another major counter-offensive, this time with F-16 coverage, and other lessons learned.
Looks like a good chance to get to a total of 500,000 Russian casualties by the end of 2024, which Russian planners had viewed (internally, reportedly) as a constraint at the start of the invasion, as well as significant depletion of the old Soviet arsenals, and the remaining liquidity in the National Wealth Fund (then kiss the ruble goodbye, and say hello to Turkish/Argentinian inflation).
Good information, little troubled that some of the sources cited are monetized, because we know that means the information is invalid, right? Well seems like that’s inferred
So what is my take away,
First after nearly 2 years Russia hold less Ukranian territory than it did shortly after the invasion.
After more than a year after Kharkiv and Kherson “goodwill gestures “ 10am of thousands of dead and wounded Russians, thousands of pieces of equipment including several ships, a submarine the Russians “successes” are almost taking bakmut and adiivka, not so much, Ukrainians on left bank.
Western aid continues (was told Europe needed to step up and they are), western munitions production is on pace to meet goals, Ukranian domestic production is rising rapidly.
Not all good news, but certainly not all bad.
One question, after day one of the invasion did any Russian planners envision this scenario almost 2 years later?
Indeed Merry Christmas to you